Odds Lions Beat Commanders in Divisional Round

Predicting Lions' odds to beat Commanders in divisional round.

Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown celebrates his touchdown catch against the Washington Commanders during the first half at Ford Field, Sept. 18, 2022. Nfl Washington Commanders At Detroit Lions / Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Lions will square off with the Washington Commanders at Ford Field Saturday night, with a trip to the NFC Championship Game on the line.

Detroit – which possessed a bye during last weekend’s wild-card playoff round – infamously lost last year’s NFC title game to the San Francisco 49ers, after blowing a 17-point halftime lead.

A year later, the devastating loss still stings, and continues to serve as an extra source of motivation for the Lions.

“I don’t think anybody in that room, myself included, has forgotten that feeling of flying back on that airplane from San Francisco,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson told reporters Wednesday. “And so, we’ve been, all year long, extremely detailed, extremely locked in, and to see it go up another level here this week, it’s been really impressive.”

Meanwhile, the Commanders, which triumphed over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a week ago, went 12-5 during the regular season this year after finishing a dismal 4-13 in 2023. 

It was a big year of growth in 2024 for Washington, which benefited greatly from a new head coach (Dan Quinn) and a new quarterback (Jayden Daniels).

Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 draft, took the league by storm during the regular season. He completed 69 percent of his passes, and threw for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. Plus, he recorded a 100.1 passer rating and a 70.6 QBR, the fourth-best QBR in ‘24.

Then, in his playoff debut against Tampa Bay, he threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns on 24-of-35 passing, while producing a 110.2 passer rating. Plus, he led the Commanders on a 10-play, 51-yard, game-winning drive, which was capped off by a 37-yard field goal from Zane Gonzalez. It was an impressive performance from the rookie signal-caller.

More: Why Lions Must Pay Attention to Commanders CB Mike Sainristil

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff applauds for teammates during warm ups / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

And on top of his prowess as a passer, Daniels excelled as a runner in his first year as a pro. In fact, the LSU product led the Commanders in rushing yards with 891, and added another six touchdowns on the ground. 

Daniels is the very definition of a dual-threat passer. And because of such, I wouldn't be surprised if he poses a big-time challenge on Saturday to Aaron Glenn's defense, which has struggled mightily with mobile quarterbacks in recent memory.

Daniels is complemented by a pair of solid running backs in Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler. The trio helped Washington produce the third-most rushing yards (2,619) and the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (25) during the ‘24 regular season. 

Daniels also has a 1,000-yard receiver at his disposal in Terry McLaurin. McLaurin finished this past season with a career-best 13 touchdown catches, plus 82 receptions and 1,096 yards. It marked his fifth straight campaign with at least 77 catches and over 1,000 receiving yards.

On the opposite side of the ball, Washington was most proficient at stopping the pass in ‘24. Specifically, it allowed the third-fewest passing yards (3,221). 

Additionally, Quinn’s team is equipped with several capable defenders, including linebackers Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu and safety Jeremy Chinn. Wagner, who won a Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks during the 2013 season, led all Commanders with 132 total tackles and an 89.9 Pro Football Focus overall grade during this past regular season.

The Commanders, riding the momentum of six straight wins, including a victory over the Buccaneers last week, certainly have a fighter's shot to pull off the upset Saturday. However, I still believe the Lions ultimately emerge victorious in this divisional-round playoff clash.

At this present juncture, I'll give Detroit a 75 percent chance to advance to the NFC Championship Game for a second consecutive season.