Odds Detroit Lions Beat New England Patriots in Week 10

The Detroit Lions travel overseas to take on the reigning AFC champion New England Patriots in Munich, Germany, on Sunday morning (9:30 a.m. EST).

The Patriots, which are off to a 5-4 start, are coming off a 45-27 defeat at the hands of Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers. Meanwhile, the Lions, which are sitting at 6-2, defeated the Miami Dolphins, 19-9, in their Week 9 tilt.

New England – led by Mike Vrabel on the sidelines – has lost two of its last three games, including to the Chicago Bears in Week 7. Additionally, it sits basically in the middle of the pack in both points scored (23.4/game) and points allowed (23.0/g).

Yet, the Patriots still possess a myriad of talent on both sides of the ball.

On offense, they're led under center by third-year passer Drake Maye, who has thrown for 18 touchdowns, 2,282 yards and a league-high 11 interceptions through nine games. He's coming off a three-interception performance against the Packers in which he completed a season-low 55.3 percent of his passes.

Maye's top target this year has been veteran tight end Hunter Henry, who has amassed 32 catches, 361 yards and two touchdowns through the season's first nine games. And on the ground, the Patriots are spearheaded by sixth-year back Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson, a fourth-round pick of New England, has accumulated 399 yards and two touchdowns, and is presently averaging 3.9 yards per carry.

Then, on the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots have received strong performances this season from the likes of EDGE defenders Gabe Jacas and Elijah Ponder, cornerback Carlton Davis III and linebacker Christian Elliss.

Ponder, a second-year pro, has already recorded 7.5 sacks, eight tackles for loss and 13 QB hits, and has returned a fumble for a touchdown. And for his efforts, he's earned a 75.0 overall grade from Pro Football Focus, the 23rd-best overall grade among 110 qualified players at the position.

The Patriots will not, however, have the services of Davis (knee) for this Week 10 international affair. Plus, they will also be down starting left guard Ben Brown (knee), and are expected to be without Stevenson (knee). Stevenson, the team's No. 1 back, suffered a plantaris tendon tear last week against the Packers.

Those are three significant losses for Vrabel's squad going into its matchup with Detroit.

As for the Lions, they will also be down multiple starters in Week 10: linebacker Jack Campbell (neck), center Cade Mays (ankle) and cornerback D.J. Reed (hip). Plus, safety Kerby Joseph, who has yet to play a single game in 2026, will not be making his season debut in Germany.

While both teams are rather significantly banged up, I still believe this matchup favors Detroit.

At this present juncture, I believe the Lions have a 59 percent chance to secure their fifth straight victory.

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