Packers at Ravens: Three Reasons to Worry

The Green Bay Packers are big favorites against the Baltimore Ravens. Even if Lamar Jackson doesn't play, the Ravens will post some challenges on Sunday.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers (10-3) will play at the Baltimore Ravens (8-5) in a heavyweight showdown on Sunday. The Packers are seven-point favorites against a Ravens team that might not have former MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson (ankle) and has been slammed by injuries and COVID.

Nonetheless, the Ravens won’t be pushovers. Here are three reasons to be concerned.

1. Scrambling QBs

Jackson is one of the great talents of all-time. With 1,206 rushing yards in 2019 and 1,005 rushing yards in 2020, Jackson is the only quarterback in NFL history with multiple 1,000-yard rushing seasons. He’s well on his way to doing it again, entering the week ranked 10th with 767 rushing yards. He's got almost as many 10-yard runs (24) as the Packers do as a team (28).

Jackson didn’t practice this week and is not expected to play. Even if he can’t play, the Packers will have to be wary of quarterback runs. Tyler Huntley, an undrafted free agent in 2020, is a legit weapon. While his 4.56-second clocking in the 40 is probably two-tenths of a second slower than Jackson – Jackson didn’t run a 40 before the 2018 draft – Huntley’s 5.9-yard average is on par with Jackson’s 5.8-yard average for this season and 6.0-yard average for his career.

“He’s athletic. He can move around,” Packers safety Adrian Amos said. “They don’t have to change their offense for him. He’s obviously not Lamar. There’s only one of them. In the history, there’s only one of them. But you have to prepare for their offense as is. They still can run the ball with him at quarterback. I’ve seen he has a big deep ball, so he can put it out there when he has to. We have to honor that. Ravens have always been run first. We have to stop that and we have to execute that, because they get into games where if you’re not stopping the run, they’ll run it every play. That’s what we have to stop first and foremost is that run game.”

Green Bay has not done well against scrambling quarterbacks. While it has had some success – specifically in limiting Arizona’s Kyler Murray to 21 yards on six runs – Green Bay has yielded NFL-worst marks of 358 rushing yards and 6.17 yards per carry vs. quarterbacks. Chicago’s Justin Fields turned a bunch of sacks into a bunch of explosive runs last week.

2. Pressure Package

Defensively, sacks are great, but the pure number of sacks can be wildly overrated.

The Ravens are just 25th with a sack rate of 5.59 percent. That would suggest a bad pass rush – a weakness that would help Green Bay’s injury-plagued offensive line in a tough road environment.

Sacks, though, don’t tell the whole story. According to SportsRadar, Baltimore’s defense is 11th in pressure rate at 24.8 percent. While veteran defensive tackle Calais Campbell is doubtful, the Ravens’ front four on passing downs is legit with Justin Houston, Tyus Bowser and rookie Odafe Oweh leading the charge.

Oweh is especially interesting. The 31st pick of this year’s draft, he didn’t have a single sack during his final season at Penn State but the 257-pounder ran a stunning 4.37 in the 40 before the draft. He’ll line up on both sides, meaning he’ll challenge No. 3 left tackle Yosh Nijman and backup right tackle Dennis Kelly.

While the Ravens’ personnel will pose a physical challenge, defensive coordinator Don Martindale’s attacking style will present a mental challenge. The Ravens’ blitz rate of 35.5 percent is the third-highest in the league. Green Bay’s ability to beat the blitz will be the story of the day against a defense that ranks eighth in scoring, second on third down and third in the red zone. The Ravens will be without starting cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters and starting safeties DeShon Elliott and Chuck Clark. Cornerback Chris Westry, who started last week, is out, as well. So, the secondary is vulnerable so long as Aaron Rodgers and Co. can diagnose what’s coming.

“It’s always challenging when you lose players of that caliber with Peters and Humphrey, and they’ve lost many other guys, as well, but they still present a lot of challenging looks,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “I think one of the keys is going to be our ability to, when we are presented with some of those exotic looks, is we’ve got to make sure that we’re on the same page from a communication standpoint. We’ve got to do a great job in pass protection to even give us an opportunity to hit some things down the field. Look at where they rank, third down, red zone, the situational ball. They are very, very challenging.”

3. Special Challenge

On paper, at least, the biggest mismatch of the game will be on special teams. In our five-category special teams rankings, Baltimore is third and Green Bay is 32nd. Here’s the tale of the tape.

Green Bay kickoff return vs. Baltimore coverage (starting field position): Packers, 31st; Ravens, 18th.

Green Bay punt return vs. Baltimore coverage (net average): Packers, 22nd; Ravens, 18th.

Green Bay kickoff coverage vs. Baltimore return (starting field position): Packers, 24th; Ravens, 9th.

Green Bay punt coverage vs. Baltimore return (net average): Packers, 19th; Ravens, 7th.

Led by receiver Devin Duvernay, the Ravens are No. 1 in the league in punt-return average and No. 7 in kickoff-return average. Green Bay is 28th and 31st, respectively, in those categories. Just fielding the ball has been an adventure.

Obviously, a big play or two can shift the game – just like it did against Chicago before the Packers’ superiority finally took control. The Ravens are too good to give away points and field position.

“It doesn’t get any easier,” Packers special teams coordinator Maurice Drayton said. “When you talk about the Baltimore Ravens, to me, they’re the standard of special teams. It starts at the top with their head coach (John Harbaugh), who was a special teams guy turned head coach. It’s a big, big task. We’re up for the challenge. We’ve got to get that guy on the ground.”