NFC Playoff Picture After Week 6: First-Place Packers Have No Margin for Error

The NFC North, in general, and the NFC North, in particular, are loaded once again. Here are the latest playoff standings, remaining strength of schedule and playoff chances.

Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft (85) celebrates a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals. | Kayla Wolf-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers turned a win into a loss at Cleveland. Then they turned a win into a tie at Dallas. With the bye week to get their house in order, they didn’t polish off Cincinnati until the final minutes.

Even with everything that seems wrong with the Packers, from an inconsistent offense to a head-scratching defense to combustible special teams, they are back in first place in the NFC North after Week 6.

“I just think we’ve got to continue to work on trying to get a little bit better each and every day,” coach Matt LaFleur said after a tougher-than-expected victory over the Bengals on Sunday. “To say that we’re close, who knows? I mean, what is close?

“I know that we can play better, certainly. I think the guys know that there’s a lot of things that we need to clean up, but the bottom line in this league is you’ve got to find a way to win each and every game, and you do it one day at a time, one game at a time, and if you’re focused on anything other than that, you’re focused on the wrong stuff.”

LaFleur probably doesn’t want his team focusing on the NFC playoff race, but the rest of us can. While it’s only mid-October and the Packers have a dozen games remaining on the schedule, the postseason chase is starting to take form.

Whoever emerges with the seven playoff spots in the NFC will have earned it. The NFC is 23-11 vs. the AFC.

In the powerful NFC, the NFC North is the most powerful division. All four teams are over .500 – Green Bay is 3-1-1, Detroit is 4-2 and Minnesota and Chicago are 4-2 – meaning the Packers are in first place but perilously close to last place.

“I love winning in Lambeau,” tight end Tucker Kraft said. “It makes it easy playing here. Definitely feels like a competitive advantage, field-surface advantage, fan advantage, obviously. Just being back at home, getting a dub, getting back in the win column, it’s just not a satisfaction, breath of relaxation or anything, but just knowing what’s ahead of us and the possibilities of what we can do with a win like today.”

NFC Playoff Standings

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (first place, NFC South): 5-1

2. Green Bay Packers (first place, NFC North): 3-1-1

3. San Francisco 49ers (first place, NFC West): 4-2

4. Philadelphia Eagles (first place, NFC East): 4-2

5. Seattle Seahawks (second place, NFC West): 4-2

6. Detroit Lions (second place, NFC North): 4-2

7. Los Angeles Rams (third place, NFC West): 4-2

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8. Atlanta Falcons (second place, NFC South): 3-2

9. Minnesota Vikings (third place, NFC North): 3-2

10. Chicago Bears (fourth place, NFC North): 3-2

11. Carolina Panthers (third place, NFC South): 3-3

12. Washington Commanders (second place, NFC East): 3-3

13. Dallas Cowboys (third place, NFC East): 2-3-1

14. Arizona Cardinals (fourth place, NFC West): 2-4

15. New York Giants (fourth place, NFC East): 2-4

16. New Orleans Saints (fourth place, NFC South): 1-5

Power of NFC

The Packers are back on top in the NFC North, which is a big deal, because the NFC is by far the superior conference and some quality teams will not qualify for the playoffs.

Just look at the standings above. Ten teams have winning records while only four have losing records. Compare that to the AFC, with seven teams having winning records and five teams with zero or one win.

“It’s a long season, it’s a very competitive league (and) you see it a lot of these games are going down right to the wire, so you’ve got to find a way,” LaFleur said. “And I think sometimes going through some tough moments and getting punched in the face and having that no-flinch mentality and finding a way makes you better down the stretch. Because when you get down the stretch, a lot of those games are like that.”

Strength of Schedule

According to Tankathon, the Packers’ remaining strength of schedule ranks 13th. Their 12 remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .537. That’s a lot stiffer test than to start the season, with their five opponents having a .417 winning percentage.

The Packers will play at the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. That’s not a must-win game, but it’s a game they need to win, with Arizona sitting at 2-4 after a fourth consecutive loss.

After that, the Packers will play at Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) before hosting the Carolina Panthers (3-3), who have won two in a row, and the Philadelphia Eagles (4-2), who are struggling but are still the Super Bowl champions.

After playing at the Giants, who have looked like a different team since handing the ball to rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, the Packers’ final seven games are as tough as it gets: home against the Vikings, at the Lions, home against the Bears, at the Broncos and Bears, home against the Ravens and at the Vikings. Other than the dangerous Ravens, every other team has a winning record.

Packers Playoff Chances

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Packers have a 79.1 percent chance of reaching the playoffs and a 45.7 percent chance of winning the NFC North.

According to Playoff Status, however, the Packers have only a 54 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason.

On the other hand, at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Packers have the third-shortest playoff odds in the NFL and are second-best in the NFC. The Bills, even after Monday’s loss at Atlanta, are an overwhelming -2000. Focusing on the NFC, Tampa Bay is -1100, Green Bay is -550, Detroit is -340, Philadelphia is -325 and the injury-ravaged 49ers are -300.

The Packers, by the way, are 6.5-point favorites against the Cardinals on Sunday.

“I think we have a really good team,” quarterback Jordan Love said. “I think it just comes down to being our best every time we touch that field and executing every play. I think we’ve seen what we can do against some good teams, and we’ve seen what we do when we don’t play our best. Just comes down to playing your best on Sunday or you’ll get beat.

“Everybody knows in the locker room we’ve got a really good team, but every other team is good, as well, so you’ve just got to be at your best.”