Packers-Bears Matchups: Who Has Advantage in Playoff Showdown?

The Green Bay Packers will face the Chicago Bears in an NFC wild-card game on Saturday night. Here is our weekly breakdown of the matchups.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) runs with the ball against Chicago Bears cornerback Nahshon Wright. | David Banks-Imagn Images

The slate is wiped clean. The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears are both 0-0. At least that is the line that coach Matt LaFleur trumpeted after the Packers’ 16-3 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.

“When you get to the postseason, everybody’s zero and zero,” he said after the game. “It’s a clean slate, so we have an opportunity, and that’s all you can ask for.”

While that line has some merit, the reality is the Packers are headed to Soldier Field for the second time this season because Chicago earned the right to host this game by being NFC North champions.

The teams split the first two matchups this season, with both teams holding serve on their home field.

The Packers were largely the better team through both games, but the NFL is a results-based business. All that matters is what happened on the scoreboard.

This will be the third playoff meeting between these century-old rivals, which they also have split. The Packers won the most recent postseason matchup, a 21-14 victory in the NFC Championship Game to send them to Super Bowl XLV.

Who has the advantage this time? Here is our weekly look at the matchups, including a new category.

Bears Pass Offense vs Packers Pass Defense

More than 60 years ago, legendary University of Texas coach Darrell Royal was credited with saying, “Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad.”

That’s kind of how Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is at this stage of his career, but when the good happens, it’s often extraordinary.

At Soldier Field in Week 16, Williams struggled mightily for 58 minutes against the Packers. But, after the Bears recovered an onside kick, Chicago’s “Iceman” led a stunning rally with back-to-back touchdown passes.

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) is pressured by Green Bay Packers defensive end Kingsley Enagbare. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The first came on fourth-and-goal. With Brenton Cox running free at him, Williams found Jahdae Walker in the back of the end zone to force overtime. The second was one of the best throws of the regular season, as he hit D.J. Moore for the game-winning score.

Green Bay’s pass defense has changed significantly since the first time these teams met. Micah Parsons, a menace in that matchup at Lambeau Field, is out with a torn ACL.

Green Bay’s pass rush may have found some juice in Sunday’s meaningless regular-season finale in Minnesota with Barryn Sorrell and Cox getting extended snaps. How much will they play in place of someone like Rashan Gary, who has not created a negative play since the end of October? It’s unlikely Gary will be displaced from his snaps, but if the Packers are searching for pass rush, they could try anything.

In the secondary, Green Bay is at least considering a change at cornerback. Trevon Diggs was claimed off waivers from Dallas last week, practiced twice and played 32 snaps at Minnesota. He could replace Carrington Valentine and start across from Keisean Nixon, who was the hero in the first matchup but the goat of the second.

Chicago should have its full stable of receivers in this game. Their top receiver, Rome Odunze, has not played against Green Bay this season, but was a limited participant in practice last week ahead of the regular-season finale against Detroit.

With the way Green Bay’s defense has played since Parsons went down, it’s hard to give them an advantage.

Advantage: Bears  

Bears Rush Offense vs Packers Run Defense

For all the fanfare surrounding Caleb Williams and the Bears’ talented trio of receivers, coach Ben Johnson and Co. want to run the football first and foremost.

Their schematics and physicality have served Chicago well this season. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai have been solid, if unspectacular, against Green Bay. The tandem has 49 carries for 218 yards across two games. That’s good for 4.44 yards per carry. The last time Green Bay’s top defense played, they were run over for more than 300 yards by Derrick Henry and the Ravens.

The good news for the Packers is that Chicago does not have a Derrick Henry. The bad news is they’re likely to be tested early and often against this group of bullies the Bears have assembled on their offensive line. Chicago finished third in rushing yards per game and per carry, led by Swift, who rushed for 1,087 yards with a 4.87-yard average.

This is a big week for defensive tackles Colby Wooden, Karl Brooks, Jonathan Ford, Warren Brinson and Nazir Stackhouse. Will they answer the bell? Whether they do or not could be the difference in whether the Packers start packing for Seattle as opposed to Cancun.

Advantage: Bears

Bears Pass Defense vs Packers Passing Offense

The Packers likely have a distinct formula to get to the Super Bowl in 2025, and it’s the same as the old formula.

The quarterback has to play like a superhero. The good news is that Jordan Love has proven capable of reaching those heights, especially this season, which was his best as a starter.

Love has not played since he suffered a concussion at Chicago, but he’ll be good to go for Saturday night. During his full game against Chicago at Lambeau Field in Week 14, he threw an interception on the opening drive but shook that off to throw three touchdown passes. All three of those touchdowns were over 20 yards in length.

Green Bay’s biggest advantage in this game is their speed at the skill positions against Chicago’s secondary. Chicago’s defenders that occupy the middle of the field are good at a lot of things, but they have struggled keeping up with Green Bay’s receivers in two games. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson, in particular, could be in line for big games.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (9) takes to the field before their game against the Chicago Bears. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Up front, the Packers should have their preferred starters on the offensive line. The knee injury right tackle Zach Tom sustained at Denver kept him out of the last three games, including the loss at Chicago.

Chicago’s front has not rushed the passer well this season, with defensive end Montez Sweat and defensive tackles Gervon Dexter and Austin Booker as their primary weapons. Sweat finished the season with 10 sacks, and the team as a whole had 35 as it finished 21st in sack percentage.

Booker was flagged twice for roughing the passer in Week 16, including the helmet-to-helmet that sidelined Love and caused some discussion as to whether the Packers defended him in an acceptable manner.

Will there be bad blood this time around? That remains to be seen.

The biggest key against Chicago is taking care of the football. That’s true every week, but especially this week. Chicago’s defense is beatable, but it led the league with 33 takeaways and 22 interceptions. In the game at Chicago, the Bears recovered two key fumbles and an onside kick.

If any number explains how the two teams took the ball away this season, Kevin Byard led the Bears with seven interceptions. The Packers have seven interceptions total.

If they can take care of the ball, the Packers should be able to pile up points. As long as Love is healthy, that will be the expectation.

Advantage: Packers

Bears Rush Defense vs Green Bay’s Rush Offense

After playing hurt for several weeks, Josh Jacobs was among the starters who did not play against the Vikings.

Jacobs missed two games this year, both against Minnesota. The first time he was inactive, he returned with a vengeance. At Detroit on Thanksgiving, Jacobs ran for 83 yards on 17 carries, including a 29-yard burst in which he looked as explosive as he had all season. Could a week off allow Jacobs to have a similar renaissance this week?

The games against Chicago were a mixed bag. At Lambeau Field, Jacobs made two of the biggest plays of Green Bay’s game-winning touchdown drive, including rumbling for the game-winning score.

The second time, Jacobs was a big reason Chicago was still in the game late, as he fumbled in the red zone, which turned out to be his last offensive snap of the game.

Chicago’s run defense has been poor this season, ranking 27th with 134.5 yards per game. They just gave up 132 yards on 27 carries against Detroit, so they are reeling a little bit.

Green Bay’s run game has not been great this season, but it was good against Chicago at Soldier Field, with Emanuel Wilson averaging 5.9 yards per carry.

For this week, we’re betting on Jacobs’ fresh legs being a factor.

Advantage: Packers

Special Teams

The Packers and special teams. You know the history.

Last week, the Packers placed their primary kickoff returner, Savion Williams, on injured reserve. That puts their return game, which was not very good, anyway, with their mediocre kickoff return and nonexistent punt return, at a disadvantage. Maybe special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia will put Keisean Nixon back deep.

Should the Packers have to punt, something they did not have to do in the game at Chicago, they have a real weapon in punter Daniel Whelan.

Here is something I thought was an impossibility considering the challenges of performing in Green Bay, but the Packers' Daniel Whelan led the NFL in punting. His 51.7-yard average won the title by more than a yard. He also finished fourth in net punting.

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) January 5, 2026

Of course, the big black eye the last time these teams met was the Packers botching an onside kick, which kick-started Chicago’s comeback and cost the Packers a big win on the road.

Chicago’s special teams has an advantage in the return game with Devin Duvernay, although the Packers have done a nice job holding him in check. He’s averaging 26.7 yards per kickoff return and 11.0 yards per punt return.

Should the game come down to a field goal, Brandon McManus finished the season 24-of-30 on field goals and has not missed a field goal or extra point since his desperation kick at the end of a Nov. 10 loss to the Eagles.

Chicago’s Cairo Santos finished 25-of-30 on field goals and did not miss an extra point.

In the third phase, Chicago, both in history and present day, gets the nod.

Advantage: Bears

Packers-Bears Intangibles

Sometimes postseason games come down to factors outside of what the teams can control or other factors from outside of the field. We’re calling those intangibles for the sake of this matchup.

The Packers’ brain trust of Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love have been here before. They’ll know how to meet the moment.

Chicago Bears coach Ben Johnson led the team to the playoffs in his first season. | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Chicago’s Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams are making their playoff debuts. Teams with a quarterback making his first playoff start are 11-23 in 2014.

Furthermore, the Bears just had their starters play a full 60 minutes on Sunday against the Lions in an effort to lock up the No. 2 seed. The Packers are rested after putting most of their preferred players on ice for the final game of the season. That this game is being played on Saturday means the Bears have one less day to rest and get ready.

How much will that matter? Who knows.

The only real advantage in this category for the Bears is the game will be played at Soldier Field.

How much of a homefield advantage will that be? The crowd undoubtedly will be rocking as they have not seen the team win a playoff game since 2011. Against the Packers, however, Soldier Field has been a house of horrors for the Bears. While the Bears won two weeks ago, the Packers are 13-2 at Soldier Field since the 2010 NFC Championship Game.

Advantage: Packers

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