Packers-Vikings Matchups: Who Has Advantage as Pivotal Stretch Begins?

The Green Bay Packers will host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. Here’s our look at the matchups that will determine who wins this Week 12 matchup.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) throws the ball under pressure from Vikings defensive end Jonathan Bullard. | Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Jordan Love and Christian Watson may have saved the Green Bay Packers’ season on Sunday. Love’s 17-yard touchdown pass to Watson provided the go-ahead touchdown in a 27-20 victory at the New York Giants.

The win allowed the Packers to come home at 6-3-1 with the meat of their schedule on deck. A decisive stretch of games will start at Lambeau Field on Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings.

The Vikings were less than a minute from getting back to .500 when J.J. McCarthy found Jordan Addison for a go-ahead touchdown against the Chicago Bears. The lead, however, was short lived. A long kickoff return by Devin Duvernay was followed by a game-winning field goal by Cairo Santos as time expired.

The Vikings (4-6) will need a win to save their season. They’ve fared well at Lambeau Field the last two seasons, having led by double-digits in each game and winning both.

The Packers have two games left on their schedule against teams who are below .500. Both of those games are against Minnesota. The fact is that there are no layups left on the schedule. Football season begins on Sunday.

Here are the matchups for Sunday’s showdown at Lambeau Field.

Vikings Pass Offense vs Packers Pass Defense

Minnesota entered this season with another new starting quarterback. After Sam Darnold’s renaissance season, he was allowed to sign with the Seattle Seahawks in free agency. His backup, Daniel Jones, was signed by the Indianapolis Colts to get what he felt was a better opportunity to start.

The Vikings flirted with the idea of signing Aaron Rodgers in the offseason but eventually settled on handing the keys to their 2024 first-round pick, J.J. McCarthy.

So far, the returns have been disastrous.

Darnold, Jones and Rodgers are having good seasons. Darnold is sixth in passer rating, Jones is ninth and Rodgers is 11th, and their teams are in control in the race to the playoffs. Meanwhile, McCarthy has struggled with injuries, inaccuracy and turning the ball over.

McCarthy is last in the NFL in completion percentage and, according to PFF, has the worst turnover-worthy play rate among quarterbacks who have played enough snaps to qualify. McCarthy will put the ball in harm’s way.

Of course, that was the situation the Packers’ defense faced last week with Jameis Winston at the controls for the Giants. The Packers’ defensive backs proceeded to drop four chances at interceptions. They’ll likely have a chance at redemption this week.

When McCarthy is able to put the ball on target to his receivers, he has one of the best in football. Justin Jefferson has struggled to be fully unleashed with McCarthy. While he ranks seventh with 747 receiving yards, he is averaging a career-low 13.3 yards per reception.

Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor and tight end T.J. Hockenson are the other primary targets. Addison has hurt the Packers in the past, including a back-breaking touchdown at Lambeau Field in 2023.

Green Bay’s pass rush needs to start finding a way, as well. Micah Parsons has been affecting the passer, but that is about it. This needs to be a big week for Rashan Gary, Devonte Wyatt and the potential return of Lukas Van Ness. If they cannot start getting home with four, Jeff Hafley may need to start dialing up more blitzes, like he did a season ago.

Regardless, McCarthy’s propensity to hold the ball, and issues with turnovers, should give the Packers some opportunities at big plays. That gives them the advantage.

Advantage: Packers

Vikings Rush Offense vs Packers Run Defense

Minnesota’s run game is led by old friend Aaron Jones and former San Francisco 49ers back Jordan Mason. Both are hard runners, and it feels likely that Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell will want to follow a similar blueprint to that of the Giants a week ago to shorten the game for his young quarterback.

Jones missed four games on injured reserve but is back in the saddle and flanking Mason, who is the team’s leading rusher. Last week against Chicago, Jones carried 16 times for 70 yards compared to six carries for 45 yards for Mason. Minnesota ranks only 25th with 103.4 rushing yards per game but is eighth with 4.66 yards per carry.

Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones Sr. (33) reacts after a touchdown run against the Baltimore Ravens. | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Green Bay’s run defense was dominant against the Eagles but average against the Giants. New York averaged less than 3.8 yards per carry but the Packers had only one tackle for loss. That allowed the Giants to stay ahead of the sticks and in manageable third- and fourth-down situations.

Green Bay’s run defense continues to drop in the rankings, though it’s still third with 96.8 rushing yards allowed per game and third with 3.83 rushing yards allowed per carry. That’s really good.

One other key to watch is McCarthy’s legs in the run game. Green Bay has done well against mobile quarterbacks this season. McCarthy’s not a dynamic runner like Jalen Hurts or Jayden Daniels is, but it is something that needs to be accounted for.

Advantage: Packers

Vikings Pass Defense vs Packers Passing Offense

Here’s the matchup that will decide the game: Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores and his blitz packages against Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur and Green Bay’s ability to pick up those blitzes.

Minnesota entered Sunday’s game against Chicago blitzing on 45 percent of dropbacks from opposing quarterbacks. Flores is not afraid to send pressure, and he showed that again on Sunday. He blitzed Caleb Williams on more than half of his dropbacks.

The Vikings play with a lot of five-man fronts, and often send all five at the quarterback. The test for Green Bay will be identifying who is coming and getting them blocked. That will test Love and his new center, Sean Rhyan.

Against the Giants’ pass rush, they did relatively well. Jordan Love was only sacked twice, both by NFL sacks leader Brian Burns, with one of those more of a coverage sack. Minnesota does not have a player of Burns’ caliber, and their sacks are divided up much more than the Giants’ tally.

A dozen players have at least one sack, and seven players have at least two. Their leading man is defensive tackle Jalen Redmond, who has four. Former Packers linebacker Eric Wilson is next with 3.5. Jonathan Greenard had 12 last year but only two this year.

In the secondary, they’ve struggled taking the ball away, and their defensive backs are able to be exploited. Shockingly, the Vikings had 24 interceptions last season but only three this season. That’s even fewer interceptions than the Packers. Safety Josh Metellus has two and cornerback Isaiah Rodgers has one.

Against the Giants, Green Bay’s passing game found a rhythm late and largely on the back of Christian Watson. On a day when the Packers had a case of the dropsies, Watson proved to be reliable. His final stat line is not gaudy, but all four of his catches were big, including two scoring strikes, one from Love and one from Malik Willis.

The Packers may not want to force-feed targets to a receiver, but they need to ensure they’re keeping Watson involved. He’s a big-play threat and has proven to be their best receiver when given the opportunity.

The Packers should be getting healthier at receiver with Matthew Golden another week removed from a shoulder injury and Savion Williams another week removed from his foot injury.

If Green Bay can protect Love against this front, the Packers should be able to exploit things in Minnesota’s second and third levels of their defense. That’s a huge if and makes this matchup a draw.

Advantage: Push

Vikings Rush Defense vs Green Bay’s Rush Offense

One giant question mark is who will be manning Green Bay’s backfield. Is Josh Jacobs, who left Sunday’s game with a knee injury, going to be able to play? The Packers did not rule him out for this week, but with two games in five days, could that be something that comes into consideration?

If Jacobs cannot go, the next man up is Emanuel Wilson. Wilson has been solid as a backup and does average more yards per carry in spot duty than Jacobs. Nobody is going to confuse Wilson for being better than Jacobs, but he is not just someone the Packers have brought in off the scrap heap.

Green Bay Packers running back Emanuel Wilson (23) runs the ball for a touchdown at the Giants. | Yannick Peterhans / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

One factor to watch is whether Chris Brooks will get more snaps because of Minnesota’s complex blitz schemes. Brooks is by far their best pass protector, as evidenced by his blitz pickup on Savion Williams’ 32-yard-reception for a big third-down conversion on the winning drive last week.

Minnesota’s run defense was just tested by Chicago’s run game. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai ran for 113 yards on 33 carries. Combine that with Caleb Williams’ 26 yards on four scrambles, and that’s 40 run plays Minnesota had to defend.

The Vikings are 22nd with 122.0 rushing yards allowed per game and 14th with 4.12 yards allowed per carry. That’s disappointing for a team that signed two defensive tackles in the offseason to try and shore that part of their front.

With the question surrounding Jacobs, and the Vikings’ overall mediocrity, this feels too close to call.

Advantage: Push

Special Teams

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Green Bay’s kicking situation is in flux.

Brandon McManus was back on the inactives list last week after his injured quad flared up on him the Saturday before the game. Back in the lineup after three weeks on the bench, Lucas Havrisik’s perfect run ended on his first kick of the day, when he badly missed an extra point.

He would miss another, although the second miss was at least in part due to a shoddy field-goal operation.

The special teams were saved largely by the leg of punter Daniel Whelan, who has been excellent this season. That included a 61-yard bomb that flipped the field against the Giants. He is second in gross average and 11th in net.

Minnesota’s special teams is coming off a bad finish. Chicago’s game-winning, walk-off field goal was set up by Devin Duvernay’s 56-yard kickoff return.

Will Reichard has missed only two field goals this season and has yet to miss an extra point. Ryan Wright is fourth in net punting average and has 17 inside-the-20 punts and zero touchbacks. Minnesota’s return game is led by Myles Price, who has a 61-yard kickoff return and 43-yard punt return this month.

Despite the bad finish a week ago, Minnesota is much more stable than Green Bay in the third phase of the game.

Advantage: Vikings

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