Prediction: Day 1 of Packers Training Camp Could Be Start of Dismal Season

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Green Bay Packers training camp begins with the first practice of the summer on Wednesday. As usual, they are a good team. Maybe even a great team if enough things go their way.

During the Jordan Love era, the Packers are one of six teams to reach the playoffs each of the last three seasons. During the Matt LaFleur era, the Packers have qualified for the playoffs six times in seven seasons.

This team, however, has one fatal flaw that could lead to a strong roster’s early demise. That flaw will be available for all to see on Ray Nitschke Field if Micah Parsons is on the field rehabbing his torn ACL.

Without Parsons for the start of the season, who’s going to rush the passer?

If the Packers can’t rush the passer, how are they doing to win games?

It was Mission Impossible last season, of course, when the Packers dropped their final five games, and there’s little reason to believe it will be better this season.

Judging by what Parsons said about the team’s “strong nine-month rule” regarding ACL recoveries, the soonest he could hit the practice field is before the Week 4 game at Tampa Bay. It’s almost impossible to believe the Packers would have Parsons on the field with what would amount to a three-practice training camp.

Week 5 is the home showdown against the Bears. Could Parsons be on the field for that game after six practices? Maybe, but it’s hard to imagine it would be in a full-time role.

Week 6 against the Cowboys at Lambeau would practically be a made-for-TV script. Parsons returning to the lineup against his former team? He’d have three weeks of practice time, which would be a good ramp-up period for the All-Pro.

“Everything is about playoffs and winning football games deep in [the season],” Parsons said last month. “Yeah, those games are important, but maybe we don’t see Dallas twice, but we see Chicago twice and the games that we have in December or even more playoff games.

“Not to even look that far ahead, but we got a tough schedule this year, and I think for the betterment of everyone, everyone wants me at 100 (percent) and wants me in those games so we can make this championship run.”

Who Will Rush the Passer for Packers?

So, let’s say Parsons will miss the first five games. Again, who’s going to pressure the quarterback? Who’s going to make him uncomfortable and either throw inaccurately or make a big mistake?

As any defensive coordinator will tell you, a good pass defense requires a combination of pressure and coverage. The Packers might struggle to rush the passer without Parsons. And they might struggle to cover receivers with suspect cornerbacks.

So, who’s going to shorten the quarterback’s time clock to help the cornerbacks?

Parsons had 12.5 sacks in less than 14 games last season. It was his record-setting fifth consecutive season to start his career with at least 12 sacks. Say what you want about the demise of Rashan Gary, who was traded to the Cowboys, but he still had 7.5 sacks. Parsons, Gary and Kingsley Enagbare, who signed with the Jets in free agency, had 22 sacks off the edge last season.

Every edge rusher on the roster with Parsons sidelined has 15 sacks in their careers.

As a team, the Packers had 317 pressures last season, according to Pro Football Focus. The top four were Parsons (79), Gary (54), defensive tackle Karl Brooks (25) and Enagbare (24). Parsons, Gary and Enagbare combined for 157. That’s almost exactly half the pressures who won’t be on the field.

Who’s going to pick up the slack?

Lukas Van Ness, with 8.5 sacks and 61 pressures in three seasons? Brenton Cox, with five sacks in three seasons? Barryn Sorrell, with 1.5 sacks as a rookie? Collin Oliver, who couldn’t stay healthy as a rookie?

Really, would any offensive coordinator in the NFL lose any sleep game-planning for Van Ness and Sorrell?

Packers Could Be Exposed by These Quarterbacks

Even mediocre quarterbacks can carve up defenses when given time. Last year, 33 quarterbacks faced at least 100 under-pressure dropbacks, according to PFF. The median passer rating from a clean pocket was 99.4. The median passer rating when under pressure was 70.6. Jordan Love was the extreme with a clean-pocket passer rating of 128.8 and an under-pressure passer rating of 46.7.

Unless defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon is a magician or Van Ness has a breakout season or the young pass rushers become unexpected forces, how are the Packers going to compete without Parsons? How are whoever starts at cornerback not going to be incinerated by even this group of quarterbacks?

Week 1 is at the Minnesota Vikings. Kyler Murray isn’t a great quarterback, but he could be a very good one with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings as the primary receivers.

Week 2 is at the New York Jets. Geno Smith is in the top 20 in NFL history in completion percentage. Garrett Wilson is a proven, premier receiver, and the Jets added receiver Omar Cooper and tight end Kenyon Sadiq with first-round picks.

Week 3 is at home against the Atlanta Falcons. If he wins the starting job, Tua Tagovailoa ranks second in NFL history in completion percentage. Receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts are a premier duo.

Week 4 is at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in potentially sweltering weather. Baker Mayfield threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns with a 106.8 passer rating in 2024. Mike Evans is gone but Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin are solid receivers.

Week 5 is against the Chicago Bears and nemesis quarterback Caleb Williams. Williams was one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the NFL last season but torched the Packers during comebacks last season with Parsons sidelined.

A Week 6 return for Parsons might be the best-case scenario. That would be a game against the Cowboys, who have prolific quarterback Dak Prescott, who ranks sixth all-time in completion percentage and has four 4,000-yard seasons, and perhaps the best receiver duo in the league with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

If Parsons didn’t return in Week 6, would they put his season debut on Ford Field’s infamous playing surface in Week 7? The Lions’ offense features Jared Goff, who has four consecutive seasons of 4,400-plus passing yards and an elite duo with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.

And whenever he comes back, can Parsons – as great as he is – return and be a game-wrecker immediately? Their closer? It’s possible. After nine sacks as a rookie in 2019, Nick Bosa missed most of 2020 with a torn ACL. He had 15.5 sacks in his return. Harold Landry missed the 2022 season with a torn ACL. He had 12 sacks in 2020 and 10.5 in 2021. Gary, on the other hand, was on the cusp of a breakout season when he tore his ACL in 2022. That breakout never came.

The reality is the Packers could start 2-3 or 1-4 without Parsons. If it takes him a couple games to get firing, a 3-4 start isn’t out of the question. If his absence extends through the Detroit game, they could be looking at something like 2-5.

No Margin for Error

Remember: In 2024, the Packers earned the No. 7 seed with an 11-6 record; the Seahawks fell short at 10-7. The margin of error could be vanishingly small.

If Parsons returns in Week 6 and quickly returns to being a dominating force and the Packers are blessed with good health, a world of opportunities will exist.

However, the second-half schedule is difficult with games against the Rams Bills, Bears, Texans and Lions. And injuries – and there will be injuries – could be a major issue at some of the positions with little depth, such as receiver.

This year’s roster is not as strong as last year’s roster. There was no first-round pick, no game-changing veteran addition.

Matt LaFleur had no answers after Parsons was injured last year. Will he be able to find them this year, or will the team’s playoff chances be blown away by mid-October because they can’t rush the passer?

There might not be a lot of starting jobs on the line or even roster spots, but this will be a critical training camp in terms of finding a legit pass rush. If they can’t, the team that runs onto the practice field at 10:30 a.m. will finish the season with eight wins and miss the playoffs.

The Packers will take their 91-man roster onto the field for the first practice of training camp at 10:30 a.m.

Who will be the 53 players they take into Week 1? Here is our first roster projection. ⬇️https://t.co/CxTL3eMjw5
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) July 29, 2026

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