Simulator Predicts Packers’ Playoff Probability, Super Bowl LXI Chances

Coming off a 9-7-1 regular season and a one-and-done postseason, what is the outlook for the Green Bay Packers in 2026?

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) waves at fans with a drumstick after the Thanksgiving win at the Lions. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 3-for-3 in playoff appearances with Jordan Love at quarterback. Can they do it again – and make a run?

For the first question, at least, the answer is yes.

Pro Football Network ran its NFL Playoff Predictor 10,000 times, with the simulator using PFN’s metrics to predict the upcoming season. The results:

Wins: 9.7.

Rounding up to get to 10 wins, this would be a modest improvement over this year’s 9-7-1 record.

“Were it not for a four-game losing streak after Micah Parsons suffered a season-ending injury, there's a chance the Green Bay Packers could've made it back to the top of the NFC North,” PFN wrote. “Though one injury isn't enough of a reason to fall apart late down the stretch, his presence off the edge will be welcomed once again in 2026.”

It won’t be easy. The Packers will play the fourth-toughest schedule in 2026 based on 2025 records.

Probability of Reaching Playoffs: 58.5 Percent

The Packers should never settle for mediocrity. However, that they’ve made the playoffs three consecutive seasons is impressive. Over that span, only seven teams qualified all three seasons while nine teams failed to reach the playoffs even once.

Getting Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft back from their torn ACLs will help, but the Packers can’t count solely on their returns.

“I (never) really would ever term anything, ‘Run it back,’” general manager Brian Gutekunst said last week. “Every year is a new year; it’s its own year. So, certainly, in the National Football League right now, particularly with the coaching changes and player movement, every year is a different year, and this will be no different.

“We’ve got a lot of work ahead of us, but really excited about Jonathan Gannon and the people we’re going to be bringing in to fill the role that Jeff Hafley had here last year, which are big shoes to fill, but really excited for him and his new opportunity. But I think every year kind of is on its own, and we’ve got to start from the beginning, and we’ve got to build our foundation, and then take a long look at some of the things that we haven’t been doing the last two years and try to be better there.”

Probability of Winning NFC North Championship: 29.3 Percent

What’s not impressive is the Packers have not won the NFC North championship since 2021. During the following four years, each of their rivals won the division crown at least once, with Chicago going from worst to first in 2025.

In the simulations, Detroit has a 32.0 percent chance to win the North, followed closely by Chicago at 30.1 percent and Green Bay. That could mean a three-team slugfest for division supremacy.

The Lions won the NFC North in 2023 and 2024 but failed to qualify for the playoffs in 2025.

“Jared Goff has a loaded group of weapons in Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, and David Montgomery,” PFN wrote. “Detroit's defense had two All-Pros last year in Aidan Hutchinson and the blossoming Jack Campbell. They'll need better play-calling on offense and more draft picks used on defense, but a playoff return seems likely.”

Winning the division is critical. Of the 10 teams to reach the Super Bowl the last five seasons, all of them started off as division champions and got at least one playoff home game.

Probability of Advancing to Super Bowl: 10.2 Percent

The Seahawks won the Super Bowl on Sunday and have a 14.5 percent chance of returning as NFC champions. The Rams, who lost to the Seahawks in the NFC title game, have a 13.2 percent probability, and the 49ers, who were hit hard by injuries, have an 11.7 percent probability.

In the NFC North, Chicago’s probability is 11.0 percent, followed by Green Bay and Detroit (9.7 percent).

“The Packers have a talented, young roster with plenty of impact defenders, a very good quarterback in Jordan Love, and a powerful runner in Josh Jacobs,” PFN wrote. “Their secondary needs work, but they feel like a safe bet to make the playoffs once again. The real question is whether they'll be able to achieve the postseason success that's alluded to them for a while.”

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the NFC championship odds are Seahawks at +400, Rams at +450, Packers at +700, Lions and Eagles at +800, 49ers at +1000 and Bears at +1400.

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