Three Keys to Packers Beating Bears in Battle for Top Spot in NFC North

After beating the Lions on Thanksgiving, the Green Bay Packers will return home to battle the Chicago Bears in arguably the most important game of the season, as the winner will hold the lead in the NFC North with four weeks remaining in the regular season.

Here are three keys for the Packers, who are undefeated in the division this year, as well as a look at the Bears on offense, defense and special teams.

Packers-Bears: Three Keys to Victory

1. Run the Ball on Offense, Stop the Run on Defense

Between the Bears’ rushing attack and their inability to stop the run on the defensive side of the ball, this game could come down to who has a better game between Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson or D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai.

For the Packers, the rushing attack has been right in the middle of the NFL at 16th with 117.2 rushing yards per game. Wilson has the only 100-yard game, which occurred against the Vikings when Jacobs was sidelined with an injury.

The Bears have been one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL, ranking second with 153.8 yards per game. Their leading rusher, D’Andre Swift, has had three 100-plus yard games, and backup Kyle Monangai, who has seen an increased role in the second half of the season, has had two, including a 176-yard performance against the Bengals Week 9.

Both Bears running backs put up big numbers in last week's win over the Eagles. Swift had 18 carries for 125 yards and a touchdown, and Monangai had 22 carries for 130 yards and a touchdown. Monangai has scored one touchdown in each of his last four games.

While their offense has been firing on all cylinders in the run game, they have yet to figure out how to stop the run on defense. They rank 28th in rushing yards allowed per game, giving up 133.8.

They could be in for an even worse game on the defensive end, as they will be playing their second game without their leading tackler, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. Veteran standout T.J. Edwards, who had at least 129 tackles in each of the last four seasons, has been sidelined for more than a month but is trending toward playing.

The Packers will be dealing with an injury to one of their top defenders, as well, with standout defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt headed to injured reserve with last week’s ankle injury. If the Packers can manage to stop the Bears’ two-headed backfield monster while exploiting their poor run defense, they will be in a great spot to bring home one of the biggest wins of the season.

2. Take Care of Football

While the Bears have the sixth-worst defense when it comes to giving up yards and the eighth-worst in giving up points, their ability to force turnovers is one of the main reasons they sit atop the NFC.

The Bears lead the NFL in turnover differential (plus-17), interceptions (17) and takeaways (26) and are third in fumble recoveries (nine). Safety Kevin Byard III leads the way with six interceptions, followed by five from cornerback Nahshon Wright and four from linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. Defensive end Montez Sweat has forced three.

While the Bears have been incredible at forcing turnovers, especially through the air, they may just meet their match against the Packers. The Packers have turned the ball over just seven times in 12 games, the lowest mark in the NFL. Jordan Love has thrown just three interceptions after throwing 11 in each of his last two seasons, and the Packers have lost four fumbles.

If the Packers can continue to take care of the ball the way they have all season while picking apart the Bears’ otherwise-weak defense, they will be in a perfect position to put up a big number on the scoreboard. If the defense can stay hot and force a couple of turnovers of their own, that would help put the offense in a great position to score, as well.

3. Let Love Keep the Party Going

For the second time this season, Jordan Love won NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Against the Lions on Thanksgiving, he completed 60 percent of his passes for 234 yards and four touchdowns, taking no sacks and throwing no interceptions resulting in a 124.2 passer rating. It was the third four-touchdown game of his career, and his first this season.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) drops back to pass against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field. | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

With a higher completion percentage, Love would have been entering the territory of a “perfect game” from a quarterback, which is something the Packers may need on Sunday. While the Bears are 22nd with 225.2 passing yards allowed, he will need to take care of the ball once again to keep it out of the hands of their ball-hawking secondary. Love has not thrown an interception in four weeks.

Packers-Bears: The Three Phases

Bears on Offense

The Bears finished last season with the worst offense in the NFL in yards per game (284.6) and the fourth-worst in scoring (18.2), finishing with a 5-12 record. It has been a night-and-day difference this season, as they are sixth in yards per game (374.3) and eighth in scoring (26.1).

The Bears are led by last year’s first overall pick, Caleb Williams. He is 12th in the NFL in passing yards with 2,722, 14th in yards per game with 226.8, 16th in touchdowns with 17 and last among qualifying passers in completion percentage at 58.1. He has thrown only five interceptions, the fifth-fewest among starting quarterbacks.

The highlight of the Bears’ offense has been their rushing attack. They are second in the NFL in rushing yards per game with 153.8 and fifth with 15 rushing touchdowns. Their backfield is led by D’Andre Swift, who has rushed for 774 yards, five touchdowns and a 4.84-yard average.

Recently, rookie Kyle Monangai has burst onto the scene, carrying the ball 79 times over his last five games for an average of 81 yards per game. He has rushed for 591 yards and five touchdowns with a 4.88-yard average. Among running backs, they are both in the top 10 in yards per carry.

The receiving corps is led by the ninth overall pick in last year's draft, receiver Rome Odunze, who has caught 44 of his 90 targets for 661 yards and six touchdowns. He did not practice on Thursday. Veteran D.J. Moore is following close behind with 38 catches for 502 yards and three touchdowns, and rookie tight end Colston Loveland has made an impact, as well, bringing in 31 catches for 406 yards and three touchdowns.

The offensive line has been one of the best units in the NFL this season, giving up just 19 sacks, the fourth-fewest in the league, while powering their tremendous rushing attack.

Bears on Defense

The Bears have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They ran 27th in total defense (359.0 yards per game) and 25th in scoring (25.6 points allowed per game). They are 30th in yards allowed per play overall, including 30th against the run and 28th through the air.

Chicago Bears cornerback Nahshon Wright (26) breaks up a pass against Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Roman Wilson. | Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images

What they do exceptionally well is take away the football. Their secondary is led by safety Kevin Byard III, who leads the league with six interceptions. They have also gotten production from cornerbacks Nahshon Wright (five interceptions, 10 passes defensed) and Tyrique Stevenson (one interception, nine passes defensed). Wright is second in interceptions; Stevenson has not practiced this week.

The Bears’ run defense is near the bottom of the NFL, giving up a 28th-ranked 133.8 rushing yards per game. While leading tackler Tremaine Edmunds is on injured reserve with a groin injury, fellow linebacker T.J. Edwards could be back in the lineup after missing the last four weeks with hand and hamstring injuries.

Byard and his fellow safety Jaquan Brisker have been the Bears’ top tacklers otherwise, with 65 and 62, respectively.

The Bears have the best defense in the NFL when it comes to forcing turnovers, highlighted by a league-leading 17 interceptions. Wright, who won NFC Defensive Player of the Month honors, has five interceptions and three forced fumbles. Defensive end Montez Sweat, who has a team-high 7.5 sacks, has forced three fumbles.

Bears on Special Teams

Veteran kicker Cairo Santos is 18-of-22 on field-goal attempts, including three made from 50-plus yards. All of his misses have come from 40-plus yards. He is a perfect 28-of-28 on extra points.

The punter is Tory Taylor, who they drafted in the fourth round last year. He has punted 42 times for an average of 47.9 yards. He has 13 inside-the-20 punts vs. five touchbacks, and 19 of his punts have been returned for an average of 13.4 yards.

The Bears’ main kick and punt returner is explosive receiver Devin Duvernay. He has returned 30 kickoffs for an average of 25.9 yards and 16 punts for an average of 10.3 yards. He has two kickoff return touchdowns in his six-year career, both coming when he was on the Ravens. His big return at the end of the Minnesota game set up the game-winning field goal.

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