Packers-Bears Matchups: Who Has Advantage in Huge Rivalry Showdown?

The most-played rivalry in the history of the NFL will be renewed on Sunday when the Chicago Bears visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers.

This is not just another rivalry game, either. The stakes are as important as they’ve been since the 2013 regular-season finale at Soldier Field. On that late-December day, Aaron Rodgers returned to the lineup after missing almost two months with a broken collarbone. With barely a half-minute remaining, he found Randall Cobb for a touchdown to help the Packers clinch the NFC North.

The winner of Sunday’s game will not clinch the division, but they’ll be in the driver’s seat. This matchup grew in significance after the Los Angeles Rams dropped a game on the road to the Carolina Panthers. With that, the Bears (9-3) would be the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs if the postseason started today. The Packers (8-3-1) are 3-0 in division play after being 1-5 last year.

Here are the matchups that will decide the game, the first of two matchups in a span of three weeks.

Bears Pass Offense vs. Packers Pass Defense

Make no mistake about it, Bears coach Ben Johnson was hired to get the most out of Caleb Williams.

Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft, struggled during his rookie season with what had been a dysfunctional organization. Johnson has brought some stability, but the questions about the quarterback remain.

On some plays, Williams can make the impossible look easy. His arm talent and athleticism shine through, and he makes plays that few in the NFL can. On other plays, he gets sloppy or misses open targets.

Friday’s game against the Eagles is a perfect example. Williams missed a touchdown pass to Rome Odunze in the corner of the end zone due to sloppy footwork. He completed less than 50 percent of his passes and had a passer rating of 56.9. He did, however, deliver a backbreaking touchdown pass to Cole Kmet, when the ball exploded off his hand with just a flick of the wrist.

Out of 27 qualifying quarterbacks this season, Williams ranks last in completion percentage (58.1) and 20th in passer rating (88.2). He’s done a good job avoiding mistakes with just five interceptions.

His biggest improvement has come in that he has taken far fewer sacks this season. Some of that is due to his ability to escape the grasp of opposing defenders. Williams has been sacked just 19 times thanks to an improved offensive line and his improved decision-making.

The Bears are 9-3 and are what the record indicates but, to become true contenders, they’re going to need more from their signal-caller.

Green Bay’s defense was up-and-down against the Lions. It pressured Jared Goff early and forced three straight incompletions to start the day. That was followed by 15 consecutive completions as the Lions were able to move the ball against Green Bay’s secondary.

Ultimately, the Packers’ defense was spearheaded by the brilliance of their closer, Micah Parsons. Parsons had 2.5 sacks, giving him 12.5 on the year. He is the first player in NFL history to record 12 or more sacks in his first five seasons. He’s been historic in every sense of the word.

Around him, the Packers are 14th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. Their secondary struggled against the Lions, allowing Jameson Williams to top the century mark against them, and they gave up more explosive plays than usual.

They’ll need to tighten things up against Chicago’s offense, which does struggle with consistency but is explosive.

Ultimately, that inconsistency and the greatness of Parsons give the Packers the nod.

Advantage: Packers.

Bears Rush Offense vs. Packers Run Defense

For all the focus on the relationship between Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, the most important thing Johnson has done is build a dominant ground game.

D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai bludgeoned the Eagles’ front last week with more than 100 rushing yards apiece. Chicago, like Detroit when Johnson was its offensive coordinator, wants to play the role of the bully. It built its offensive line to do so with the combination of center Drew Dalman, right guard Jonah Jackson and right tackle Darnell Wright helping spearhead a ground attack that is as diverse and creative as any in the NFL.

Chicago Bears running back Kyle Monangai (25) carries the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles on Friday. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The Bears’ backs do not go down on first contact, either, and often are able to push the pile. Among running backs, Monangai is seventh in yards per carry and Swift is 10th.

Chicago averages 153 rushing yards per game. That is the top mark in the NFL. It’s their identity, and you can bet the Bears will want to test Green Bay’s run defense, which just suffered a significant blow.

Green Bay did well against Detroit’s ground game, with Jahmyr Gibbs totaling only 68 yards on 20 carries. It won that battle but needs to prove it has not lost the war. Top defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt sustained a season-ending ankle injury. Green Bay’s depth on the defensive line was already perilously thin but is now reaching a crisis level.

At the end of the game, Colby Wooden, Warren Brinson and Nazir Stackhouse were the only healthy defensive tackles.

Karl Brooks, who missed most of the last three games with an ankle injury, should be able to return this week, but he is more of a pass rusher than a run stuffer. Lukas Van Ness might be able to kick inside and help on some passing downs but has missed six of the last seven games with a foot injury and was in a walking boot on Monday.

The return of linebacker Quay Walker from a stinger could help, but they’ll be challenged regardless of who is or is not available. Chicago’s ground game is that good.

Advantage: Bears

Bears Pass Defense vs. Packers Passing Offense

Chicago’s defense has a bit of a Jekyll-Hyde feel to it. On a per-play basis, it’s not very good. Chicago is 28th with 7.22 passing yards allowed per play and 22nd with 225.2 passing yards allowed per game.

What does it do better than any team in football? It takes the ball away.

Safety Kevin Byard is having a resurgence season and tallied his league-leading sixth interception against the Eagles. He’s not alone. Cornerback Nashon Wright, an under-the-radar signing this offseason, is nipping at Byard’s heels with five picks.

The Bears have 17 interceptions and nine fumble recoveries for a total of 26 takeaways. That includes a forced fumble on the tush push last week against the Eagles, when Wright took the ball away from Jalen Hurts in the midst of the scrum. They lead the NFL in interceptions and turnovers by four.

The pass rush is a bit of a one-man band with defensive end Montez Sweat leading the way with 4.5 sacks. Gervon Dexter has four, and nobody else has more than three. The Bears are 24th in sack percentage.

Green Bay’s passing offense found its stride last week against the Lions. Jordan Love and Dontayvion Wicks were sensational. Love shook off some early accuracy issues to throw four scoring strikes, which included two to Wicks. Love was equally as good in the clutch. Two of his touchdown passes came on fourth downs, and he converted another fourth down to Wicks to seal a big win.

It’s possible the Packers could find some reinforcements in their passing game this week. Jayden Reed has been practicing and could make his return to the lineup after missing every game since suffering a broken collarbone against Washington on Sept. 11.

Reed could inject some life into the offense whose YAC attack has gone dormant since Tucker Kraft was lost for the season with a torn ACL.

Christian Watson has returned to form following last year’s torn ACL and made a game-changing play with a 51-yard touchdown against Detroit. He’s been their most consistent weapon since returning six games ago.

With all of these weapons surrounding him, and a newfound aggressiveness from coach Matt LaFleur, the key to this game will be Love keeping the ball out of harm’s way. Love has been excellent this season with only three interceptions. If he can take care of the ball, Green Bay should be able to find success through the air.

Advantage: Packers

Bears Rush Defense vs. Green Bay’s Rush Offense

Green Bay’s run game looks like it is trending in the right direction. Josh Jacobs returned to the lineup after a one-game absence and looked like he had fresh legs against Detroit. Jacobs looked particularly explosive on a 29-yard carry in which he looked as good as he has throughout the season.

Jacobs finished the game with 83 yards on 19 carries, playing a complementary role to Green Bay’s dynamic passing game. Jacobs didn’t cede much of his workload to Emanuel Wilson, who topped 100 yards in his first start of his career against Minnesota when Jacobs was out of the lineup.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs does a Lambeau Leap after scoring against the Bears last season. | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Overall, Green Bay’s run game has been average for most of the season, but again, trending in the right direction between Wilson’s 100-yard game and Jacobs averaging 4.9 yards per carry against the Lions.

This week against Chicago could be another chance for them to put together a big game. The Pittsburgh Steelers ran around, over and through Chicago’s defense, which is missing all of its preferred starting linebackers. It’s unclear if they’ll be able to get any of them back this week. What we do know is that Tremaine Edmunds will be out of the lineup as he is on injured reserve.

Even when he has been in the lineup, however, the Bears have struggled. They rank 27th with 133.8 rushing yards allowed per game and 30th with 5.18 yards allowed per carry. However, they could be feeling good about their defense coming into this weekend’s game as they just shut down Saquon Barkley and an Eagles offense that prides itself on the ability to run the ball against anyone.

Despite that, the track record speaks better to Green Bay’s mediocre run game being able to move the ball against Chicago’s bad run defense.

Advantage: Packers

Special Teams

Green Bay’s special teams are coming off two of their best performances of the season. Against Minnesota, they made a game-changing play and were not penalized. They followed that up with a solid performance against the Lions, who have one of the better units in the NFL.

It looks like Brandon McManus may have righted the ship, as well. He has not missed a kick in each of the last two weeks.

The only puzzling thing about Green Bay’s special teams last week was McManus kicking the ball into the end zone, gifting the ball to the Lions at the 35 throughout the first half. How the Packers approach kickoffs this week will be interesting considering the Bears are dangerous in the return game with Devin Duvernay.

Duvernay’s return skills helped the Bears steal a game in the final minute against the Vikings two weeks ago. He is averaging 25.9 yards per kickoff return and 10.3 yards per punt return.

Chicago’s kicking situation has been a little shaky. Tory Taylor has not been as advertised as a punter since being drafted out of Iowa, and Cairo Santos has struggled with injuries and inconsistency. Taylor is 22nd in net average and Santos ranks 20th out of 29 kickers (minimum 15 kicks) in field-goal percentage.

Chicago’s coverage units are not good but Green Bay has shown no ability to take advantage.

The overall advantage for Chicago comes in the dynamics it brings to the return game. Last year in the regular-season finale, Chicago’s special teams beat Green Bay pretty badly, which included a trick play on a punt return that was returned for a touchdown.

Green Bay will need to continue its stellar play in this phase of the game.