Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Bears in Wild-Card Showdown

The Green Bay Packers will play at the Chicago Bears in an NFC wild-card game on Saturday. Here are three reasons why the Packers will advance to a divisional-round game at Seattle next week.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) throws a pass against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. | Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – You know the parallels.

In 2010, Aaron Rodgers was in his sixth NFL season and third year as the starter when he led the Green Bay Packers to a victory at the Chicago Bears in the NFC Championship Game.

In 2025, Jordan Love is in his sixth season and his third year as the starter. On Saturday night, he will lead the Packers into an NFC wild-card game at the Bears.

In 2010, the Packers beat the Bears and won the Super Bowl. In 2025, the Packers, at least, will beat the Bears. Here are three reasons why. (For the uninitiated, the other side of this story will be published later on Friday.)

1. Math: 8 Plus 10 Equals W

The Packers’ big advantage comes on offense.

Chicago’s defense is not good. If it can’t force a takeaway or two, it’s not good enough to win a big game.

The Bears finished the season ranked:

• 23rd with 24.4 points allowed per game. That’s the worst among playoff teams.

• 29th in total defense with 361.8 yards per game. That’s the worst among playoff teams.

• 27th in rushing defense (134.5 yards allowed per game) and 29th in yards allowed per carry (5.00). They are second-worst among playoff teams in both categories.

• 22nd in passing defense (227.2 yards allowed per game) and 28th in yards allowed per passing play (7.25). Their yards per play is the worst among playoff teams.

• 22nd on third down (40.8 percent). That’s fourth-worst among playoff teams.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (9) makes a reception against the Chicago Bears on Dec. 7. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Love is 4-0 against Chicago in games he started and finished. In Week 14 at Lambeau Field, he was devastating with 17-of-25 passing for 234 yards and three touchdowns, shaking off an early interception to finish with a 120.7 passer rating.

Love struggled in the rematch before getting knocked out with a concussion. The Packers got a jump-start on their prep for this game, so should have a handle on the adjustments made by Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen for that game.

On the ground, Josh Jacobs rushed for 86 yards and one touchdown in the first game and Emanuel Wilson rushed for 82 yards in the second game. With fresh legs – more on that in a moment – Jacobs could be ready to rumble.

Chicago has feasted on turnovers, leading the league with 33 takeaways and 22 interceptions. The potential for bad weather could put the Bears in position to get a couple. That’s one of the obvious keys to the game.

“You’re got to really do a great job anytime you catch the ball or run with the ball of just being really focused on making sure you have a ball at the end of the play,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “They do an excellent job tackling the football, punching at the football, ripping at the football. They got one out on us last time we played them down in the red zone. That was a big play for them.

“So, we got to make sure we do a great job with that. Their DBs, they’ve got really good ball skills. They can catch the ball. They don’t really lose too many opportunities by dropping the ball, and things like that. They do a nice job just beating around the football.”

Love finished with the fifth-lowest interception percentage in the league. So long as he does what he’s done for most of the season, the Packers will score enough points to take control and make enough plays to hold off the Bears.

2. Fresh Legs

Rest vs. rust.

It’s the age-old conundrum for coaches. Last week, the Packers had nothing to play for, and coach Matt LaFleur treated the game accordingly. Most of his top players didn’t play more than a handful of snaps during the Week 18 loss to the Vikings.

Meanwhile, Bears coach Ben Johnson took the opposite approach against the Lions.

“Some teams, they rest their starters. We don’t. We play football,” he said following a 19-16 loss.

Neither team will enter this game with momentum. Green Bay has lost four in a row, though the unofficial bye given to the team by LaFleur makes that irrelevant from a mindset perspective. Chicago has lost two in a row, falling just short against the 49ers and Lions. Maybe its belief that it can pull any game out of the fire has been damaged.

The NFL perhaps threw the Packers a bone by having this game played on Saturday night. There was never a doubt that this would be a primetime game. So, on top of coming off a grueling game against a division rival, the Bears got 24 hours less rest than if the league had put this game in the Sunday night slot.

“I feel like we’re fresh. We’re floating around, flying around and we’re ready to play,” said cornerback Keisean Nixon, who played the opening series because he thought it was important to start in all 17.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) finds a seam against the Chicago Bears on Dec. 20. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The week off last week has running back Josh Jacobs feeling “the best I’ve felt probably in the last six weeks.” He wasn’t even on the injury report this week.

Jacobs suffered a knee injury in Week 11 against the Giants. After resting in Week 12, Jacobs carried 17 times for 83 yards in the win at Detroit. Coming off a bye last season, he had 134 total yards in a win at Chicago. Coming off a bye in 2022 while with the Raiders, Jacobs ran for 143 yards and three touchdowns against Houston.

“Confidence level, I think we confident,” Jacobs said. “Obviously, we still respect our opponents, but definitely confident in our belief and the type of work that we put in and the guys that we have in this room.

“When it’s a sense of rust, I feel like, personally, the best teams are the teams that are the freshest going into these games. Because everybody’s banged up at this time of the year, so if you can get guys that feel good on game day, that’s kind of ugly for the opponents. So for us, man, I know a lot of guys are fresh. I know we got a lot of guys back feeling like they can practice and things like that. So, we’re going to see how it plays out.”

3. It’s Simple

In Game 1 at Lambeau Field, the Packers won 28-21. They led for almost 34 minutes while the Bears never led. In the rematch at Soldier Field two weeks later, the Bears won 22-16 in overtime. Green Bay led the game for more than 42 minutes. The Bears didn’t lead until the final play.

Added together, the Packers led those games for 75:54 while the Bears led for 0 seconds.

That should tell you something: The Packers are the better team. They were better in the first game with Micah Parsons. They were better in the second game without Parsons (and mostly without Jordan Love).

Love is healthy and will start. Jacobs is fresh, and so is a defense that ran into hard times at the end of the season. Whatever happened during the final games is irrelevant. The Packers are confident. And they should be, given how well they played in the first two meetings.

“There’s a bunch of examples from this year where we’re playing our best ball and we make really good offenses look very mediocre,” safety Evan Williams said. “It’s about having that mental toughness and physical toughness to maintain that for 60 minutes. And it’s not an easy task by any means, but we feel like we got the guys to do it.

“And we also understand it’s a new season, regardless of how the season ended. Everybody’s zero and zero right now. So, definitely looking forward to capitalizing on that opportunity.”

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