Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Bears, Recapture NFC North Lead

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Will 13 be the Green Bay Packers’ lucky number?

Thirteen days after the Packers beat the Chicago Bears to take first place in the NFC North, they’ll have to do it again in the rematch on Saturday night at Soldier Field. Here are three reasons why the Packers will get it done and take a huge step toward winning the division and earning at least one home playoff game.

1. Defense Has Something to Prove

No, the Packers are not better on defense without Micah Parsons. However, there are two things working in favor of that unit

One is the element of surprise. In Week 16 of any NFL season, there aren’t many unscouted looks. The Packers could have a game full of them on Saturday.

To be sure, Bears coach Ben Johnson and his staff spent the week looking at how Green Bay’s defense played so successfully in 2024. But Hafley had all offseason and training camp to build off his unit’s success. A lot of that work got shoved into some dingy Lambeau Field closet after the trade for Parsons.

The Packers were really good on defense without Micah Parsons last season. Here's why they believe they can be really good without him again. ⬇️https://t.co/tiFWb7oHl2
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) December 19, 2025

Parsons was so good that Hafley got to play conservatively. He won’t have that luxury anymore. So, it will be back to the blitz packages and simulated pressures that worked so well last year – and variations off them that were created in the lab in the spring and summer but haven’t been shown this year.

Second, there’s a belief on the outside that Green Bay’s season died when Parsons suffered his torn ACL last week. That might very well be true, but athletes don’t think like the rest of us. The defense was excellent last season and the team entered this season believing it could go to the Super Bowl even before the Parsons trade.

So, from that perspective, nothing has changed. The Packers will try to win the NFC North and make a playoff run without Parsons, just like they were planning to do in August. So, Hafley wasn’t trying to sell snow to an Eskimo this week when he talked to his players.

“I told them you can’t let circumstances dictate behavior,” Hafley said. “A week ago, we’re in here after we beat the Bears, and we’re all walking in here all upbeat and ready to roll. I said, ‘Shame on you if you walk in here any different today.’ That’s not who we are. That’s our job as leaders and coaches, to make sure that we don’t do that.

“We’ve got really good players. We’ve played good defense, and we’re going to continue to play good defense. Our guys understand that, and I think it’s important for everyone to understand that these guys have a lot of pride, and they’re going to get even closer because of this. And they’re going to play well. Our best players are going to step up.”

Defense is about playmakers and scheme, to be sure, but it’s also about play style and effort. That’s what stood out to Hafley last season. While it was amplified with the addition of Parsons, the Packers have plenty of high-impact, high-effort players on the defensive roster.

“Everybody just playing fast, everybody still having that swagger, confidence, and just understanding Micah made us better as a group but understand that we’re still the same players and still got the same group,” defensive end Rashan Gary said.

Ultimately, the Packers believe they’re good enough to get it done. Sometimes, that belief is enough.

“We’ve played good defense, and we’ll continue to play good defense,” Hafley said. “Are we going to miss Micah? Yeah, we’re going to miss Micah, absolutely. But we’ve got good players who are ready to go. That’s their whole mindset right now. They know that. They take pride in that. I think they’re looking forward to this.”

2. Difference at Receiver

The Packers have a lot of respect for Bears quarterback Caleb Williams.

“He going to do Houdini stuff. That’s why he was the first pick. That’s why he won the Heisman,” cornerback Keisean Nixon said. “Made hell of a throws on the run [or a touchdown against Nixon in the first game].

“So, we just got to play ball. You can’t stop guys doing what they do. He did it his whole life. Lamar (Jackson) is the same way. Them guys is blessed and they do what they do at a high level just like we do. But they bleed just like we do and they got the same 24 hours and they not superhuman, they just like us. We’ll be ready to play ball.”

Even the best quarterbacks need a little help from their friends. Packers quarterback Jordan Love will have more help from his friends than will Williams. Chicago’s leading receiver, Rome Odunze, will miss another game with an injured foot and rising rookie Luther Burden III, who has 23 receptions the last six games, will be inactive, as well.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson outruns the Bears' secondary for a touchdown two weeks ago. | Sarah Kloepping/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

On the other side, Love might have everyone at his disposal. While it’s been impossible to replace Tucker Kraft, the entire receiver corps could be active. That includes Christian Watson, who was in a Denver hospital six days ago, rookie receiver Matthew Golden, who is past his shoulder and wrist injuries and had a productive day at Denver, and rookie Savion Williams, the team’s kickoff returner.

What the Packers could lose without Parsons, they could gain on offense and the ability to outscore teams.

“No doubt,” Watson said. “I think that we got everything that we need. Obviously, it didn’t work out for us last week, but I think that’s just the name of the game. They’re a really good football team. I think we’re ready to go against anybody. I think we got the right guys on both sides of the ball to accomplish what we want to accomplish, we just have to go out there and execute and out-physical, out-compete whoever is against us.”

3. Big-Game Experience

This will be the Bears’ biggest home game since the infamous double-doink wild-card loss to the Eagles five years ago. It will be their biggest home game in the rivalry since Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb ripped their hearts out in 2013.

The Packers are a battle-tested team with back-to-back playoff appearances. The Bears are not. Their first-year coach, Ben Johnson, acknowledged that reality this week.

“I don’t think it’s any different than any other week,” he told reporters on Thursday. “We go in and we come up with a game plan and we’re looking to execute that at a high level. I do believe when you get towards the end of the season and the games could be a little bit bigger or you get the brighter stage, night games, whatever, and you have more eyes on you, younger players can get – I don’t want to say deer in headlights, but the big picture of it all can get to them a little bit.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) and receiver Christian Watson (9) celebrate a first down against the Bears. | Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

“All we talk about as coaches is just focus on the little things, the details, still about blocking and tackling and catching and pursuing, all the boring stuff to the casual observer is everything that us coaches preach and look for on game day.”

Maybe the Bears will avoid that deer-in-the-headlights feeling. Or maybe the Packers, the youngest team in the NFL but also one that’s gone through the fires, will use that experience to their advantage in a big-game atmosphere.

“I think it’ll be like the first time we went down there in 2019 to open up the season,” coach Matt LaFleur said on Thursday. “I think it’s going to be electric. I’m sure they’re going to have the big baritone national anthem guy out there, piping it away. I think it’s going to be an unbelievable atmosphere. It’s playoff-football atmosphere, so it’ll be fun.”

How does a team survive that early storm?

“Great focus, concentration, knowing the plan inside and out,” he said. “I think the guys have done a really nice job over the last two days preparing and just knowing what to do. Ultimately, it’s going to come down to the execution of that.”

1. Defense Has Something to Prove

2. Difference at Receiver

3. Big-Game Experience

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