Three Reasons Why Ravens Will Beat Packers In Battle of Backup QBs

GREEN BAY, Wis. – One of the more unusual weeks in recent Green Bay Packers history will culminate with their Saturday night home game against the Baltimore Ravens.

The Packers blew a chance to control the division with their epic meltdown on Sunday night at Chicago but were handed a playoff berth on Thursday. Instead of this being a potential Super Bowl preview, the Ravens are on life support and the Packers backed into the playoffs.

Back-to-back Saturday games, with Christmas in the middle, made for a weird week. What was supposed to be Jordan Love vs. Lamar Jackson probably will be Malik Willis vs. Tyler Huntley. And just about everyone, for the sake of exaggeration, is sick.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose to Baltimore, which will prolong Green Bay’s late-season mystery but might ultimately mean nothing in the grand scheme of things.

1. Derrick Henry

The Packers’ run defense has been a surprising strength throughout the season. Even when it looked like the powerhouse Bears, a team led by their rugged run game, got things moving on the ground against the Packers, the bottom line shows Chicago’s two running backs had one carry of 10-plus yards in two games.

Whatever the final fate of the season for Green Bay, Colby Wooden, Karl Brooks and the rest of the unsung cast of characters on the defensive line will be the unsung heroes. Green Bay enters this game ranked fifth with 3.97 yards allowed per carry and ninth with 103.8 rushing yards allowed per game.

With that said, the biggest challenge of the season awaits.

Literally and figuratively.

Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) runs with the ball for a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Ravens running back Derrick Henry is listed at 6-foot-2 and 252 pounds. That makes him bigger than all of Green Bay’s linebackers and defensive backs. He’s a runaway freight train when he gets up to speed. With sheer size, a violent stiff-arm and take-it-to-the-house speed, the big man is a big play waiting to happen.

Henry is having the type of “down” season that just about every running back wished he could produce. He’s fourth in the league with 1,253 rushing yards and fourth with 12 rushing touchdowns. Of 48 backs with at least 100 carries, he’s ninth with 4.99 yards per carry.

Taken on their own, his 873 rushing yards after contact would put him 18th in rushing – not far behind Josh Jacobs 926 yards. He’s eighth with 3.48 yards after contact per carry.

“Biggest challenge? Sh**, he’s a big dude,” safety Xavier McKinney said. “He’s one of those guys you’ve got to make sure that all 11 are running to the ball at all times and you’ve got to wrap up because he can break through arm tackles. Obviously, we’ve all seen that he’s got the crazy stiff-arms, so he’s just one of them guys where everybody’s got to populate to the ball and got to be more of a gang tackle than a solo one-on-one tackle.”

Henry is tied for first in the league with 13 carries of 20-plus yards. Green Bay’s run defense is first with only four runs allowed of 20-plus yards.

Ravens coach John Harbaugh was kicking himself for taking the ball out of Henry’s hands after he carried 18 times for 128 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to New England on Sunday. Typically when that happens, a coach doubles down to make sure that player gets involved and stays involved.

“I think they’re a really good defense,” Henry told reporters. “I think they’re solid top to bottom. They fly to the ball, [and] they have willing tacklers in the secondary. They’re just really stout, and they are a good defense. I think that’s why they’ve been really good throughout this season. I know that they’re trying to fight for a playoff spot, too, but on film, they fly around to the ball and make plays.”

Henry needs two rushing touchdowns to tie Adrian Peterson for fourth in NFL history with 120.

2. Zay Flowers

In the 2023 draft, the Packers selected Lukas Van Ness with the 13th overall pick and the Ravens drafted receiver Zay Flowers with the 22nd selection.

This week, Flowers was named to his second consecutive Pro Bowl team. After catching 74 passes for 1,059 yards and four touchdowns last season, he has 78 receptions for 1,043 yards and two touchdowns in 15 games this season.

He’s a one-man passing game. Flowers has been targeted 106 times. All the team’s other receivers combined have been targeted 83 times. Tight end Mark Andrews is second on the team with 59 targets – or barely half of Flowers’ total.

Flowers is eighth in the league in receptions and ninth in yards. Of 64 receivers to be targeted at least 50 times, he’s eighth in catch percentage and 12th in yards after the catch per catch. While he’s only about 5-foot-9, he’s caught 10-of-19 passes on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, that 52.6 percent catch rate ranking sixth out of 63 receivers with at least 10 deep targets, according to Pro Football Focus.

Baltimore Ravens receiver Zay Flowers (4) makes a catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers. | Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

He’s also carried the ball 10 times this year to push his total to 1,105 yards.

Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley coached Flowers at Boston College, so he knows the challenge that awaits a secondary that has shown some cracks the last few weeks.

“They’re going to get him the ball,” he said. “They’re going to hand him the ball, quick throws on the ball, take shots down the field to him, and his catch-and-run is as good as there is in this league. He has a crazy way of seeing things and spatial awareness. As a guy that coached him for three years, it makes me extremely proud to see, but now we’re going to do everything we can to stop him.

“You know what I’m most proud when I watch is the way he blocks down the field. The guy’s been relentless. He’s blocking, he’s catching the balls, and that’s always one thing I think back to talking to him about was anybody can go out and catch the ball. It’s those guys who block down the field shows how much you care about your teammates and how much you love football, and it’s actually really cool for me to see him continue to do that. I’m very fond of the guy, and now it’s everything we can do to stop him and get him on the ground and limit him.”

3. Human Nature

In a late-season game at Green Bay, Mother Nature tends to be a major factor. In this game, it could be human nature.

The Packers just got off a grueling five-game stretch of three consecutive NFC North games, at the AFC’s No. 1 team, the Denver Broncos, and a road game at the division-rival Chicago Bears.

In the loss at Denver, the Packers gave up a second-half lead and lost Mica Parsons to a torn ACL. In the loss at Chicago, the Packers controlled most of the game but went 0-for-5 in the red zone, gave up an onside kick and lost in overtime.

Losing that game put the Packers in a precarious position to even make the playoffs. Not anymore, with the Lions’ back-to-back losses allowing Green Bay to clinch a playoff berth while enjoying a couple Christmas cookies.

The Packers have a shot to win the NFC North, but it’s small. They could win both of their next games and still be stuck as the seventh seed.

And now, Jordan Love is out with a concussion.

Human nature is a real thing. The Packers have plenty of belief in and respect for Malik Willis, but this game screams an emotional letdown after two difficult weeks and the Christmas holiday.

“This team’s full of guys that are willing to do whatever it takes to get out of there with a dub,” Willis said on Tuesday. “Obviously, we didn’t [against Chicago] and that’s unfortunate, but I think we’ll move past it. Obviously, we have a game this week. We can’t sit and dwell on the past. We have to focus on going 1-0 this week and do the same next week.”

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1. Derrick Henry

2. Zay Flowers

3. Human Nature

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