Metric That Predicted Panthers' 2025 Improvement Reveals What 2026 Will Be Like

Not many expected the Carolina Panthers to be as good as they were in 2025. They were coming off a five-win season, and while improvement was probable, a division title and playoff berth seemed totally out of the question.

However, one metric from last offseason revealed that, based on point differential and free agency changes, considered them a top-three most-improved team. That played out, with the Panthers jumping from the top 10 in the draft to the playoffs.

What does that same metric say after the first wave of free agency? That once again, the Panthers are set to improve in 2026.

Panthers poised to be even better in 2026, data suggests

Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Jaelan Phillips (50) against the Detroit Lions | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The Carolina Panthers made a significant leap last season. While they were still under .500 and had a seriously negative point differential, they won twice as double-digit underdogs (two more times than every other team combined) and made the playoffs.

The future seemed bright, but growth is not always linear. However, the same metric that predicted the Panthers would be better in 2025 is predicting that they will once again be better in 2026 after the first few days of free agency.

2026 NFL Offseason Improvement Index is up and running @Unexpected_Pts

Compares end-of-season roster point-differential projections to those reflecting offseason changes, including draft capital effects.

It doesn't project this well *every* offseason, but 2025 results were… pic.twitter.com/DLMpebXGCi
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) March 11, 2026

Last season they were among the top three with the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears. All three made the playoffs are being bad the year before. The Patriots made the Super Bowl.

The three teams who got worse were the New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, and Kansas City Chiefs. Only the Eagles made the playoffs, and they got bounced immediately and were definitely not close to defending the title. Suffice it to say, this metric is usually pretty accurate.

And according to it, the Panthers are the seventh-most improved team in the NFL. Adding Devin Lloyd, Luke Fortner, Jaelan Phillips, and others will do that. This should allow them to finally have a winning season.

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Kenny Pickett (15) warms up before a game against the Kansas City Chiefs | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Additionally, they are the only NFC South team to have truly improved based on this. We estimated that the Saints had also improved, and this metric says they have made a minor increase. They're the least improved team of the improved teams.

The Falcons got marginally worse, and the Buccaneers are middle of the pack in terms of regression. Put simply, the Panthers seem to still be the best team in the division, but they've made enough improvement to potentially be one of the best teams in the NFL.

Adding an All-Pro linebacker, superstar edge rusher, and shoring up some other holes is a great start to the offseason, and it should pay massive dividends come falltime.