NFL insider reveals pick for Panthers-Buccaneers with one major caveat

The Carolina Panthers are 8-8, which gives them a one-game advantage in the NFC South as of now. They will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Saturday, a game that functions largely as a win-and-in (though not exactly).

The other potentially decisive game won't be played until Sunday at 1:00, so the Panthers will want to take care of business on Saturday in Tampa Bay. If they can't, things get a little murky.

CBS Sports insider John Breech broke down that game and made his prediction, which spells doom for the Panthers. But that's not the only game that matters in this scenario.

Insider picks Bucs to win, but Panthers still make playoffs

Dec 21, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales greets Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles after a game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Losing to fall to 8-9 and still making the playoffs because of a silly tiebreaker would not be a fun ending to what has been an interesting season for the Panthers.

Making the playoffs is crucial at this point. They've come this far, falling short would be agonizing, even if everyone in the world knows they'll get trounced in round one by whatever NFC West team they face.

But stumbling in backwards as a result of another team's victory isn't ideal. Unfortunately, according to John Breech, that's exactly how it's going to happen. He went on and on about how rough the Buccaneers look now, and how bad Baker Mayfield has been.

"I don't trust mojo-less Mayfield, but I also don't trust Bryce Young (who threw for just 54 yards in Week 17)," Breech admitted. "However, I do trust Tampa Bay's home-field advantage this week. The Panthers are 0-5 when playing in Tampa this decade and since this feels like a coin-flip game, that's enough to get me to pick the Bucs."

Dec 29, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) great Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) after a game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Breech is right, this is a coin flip. It's impossible to determine. On one hand, the Panthers are not 1-7 in their last eight, and they're probably the better team. On the other hand, the Buccaneers have experience in this sort of thing, and the Panthers don't. The Bucs are also at home.

Breech believes the game will play out exactly like Week 16 did, with the home team earning a 23-20 win. All is lost, right? Wrong. Breech also picked the Atlanta Falcons to beat the New Orleans Saints by a touchdown.

That creates a three-way tie at 8-9, and because of some strange tiebreakers, the Panthers would win the division. If the Falcons lose, and the Buccaneers and Panthers are tied at 8-9, then the Buccaneers win.

The Panthers can avoid all of this by taking care of business in Tampa. Breech cited the 0-5 record since 2020, but Bryce Young has only played two of those games, and one of them came in his dreadful and impossible-to-succeed-in rookie season.

This isn't the same Young, and these aren't the same Panthers. For that matter, these aren't the same Bucs, either. They're worse, and the Panthers are better. Let's just hope that plays out on Saturday afternoon.

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