Why They Win: Can Patriots Clinch Playoffs vs. Bills?

The formation of a two-year streak comes down to but a single day for the New England Patriots.

Seeking to re-establish their role as postseason staples on Sunday afternoon, the Patriots, perhaps appropriately, face the Buffalo Bills, the team that appears well-equipped to succeed them not only as the owners of the AFC East for years to come but as a consistent contender for the Super Bowl. Additionally, it was the Bills that also woke the Patriots up from their championship dreams last season, prevailing in a 47-17 shellacking that stands as one of the most one-sided victories in NFL postseason history.

A clutch victory over Miami at what will presumably become the Patriots' Foxboro season finale afforded New England control of its destiny, far and away at the top of the three-team logjam bidding for the seventh and final AFC playoff seed. Falling to a Bills team still fighting for the conference's No. 2 seed (which would set up a potential rematch with the Pats come Wild Card weekend) would force New England into the undesirable scenario of rooting for both the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns to get their spot back.

Standing in their way of a clinch is a Bills team playing with heavy hearts, as their crucial AFC showdown with the Cincinnati Bengals was called off due to the scary situation concerning the collapse of defender Damar Hamlin. The secondary man remains in critical condition but has reportedly been making big steps in his recovery to the point where he was able to communicate with his Buffalo teammates this week.

What: New England Patriots (8-8) at Buffalo Bills (12-3)
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
When: 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Who's Won: New England leads series 77-48-1 (Last: 24-10 BUF, 12/1/22)
Who's Favored: BUF -7.5

How do the Patriots get this crucial win?

Early Bird Gets the Bid

There's no use arguing if the NFL did anyone a "favor" in planning the Week 18 schedule, primarily when it comes to the knowledge that the best decisions were made in a tragic situation. Any complaints the Patriots or their fans had about landing in the early 1 p.m. ET slot instantly vanished by Monday night, those issues swiftly replaced by thoughts and prayers for Hamlin.

The Patriots should instead take advantage of their early time slot in more ways than one: not only can they enjoy the thrilling afternoon/evening slate in peace but they can get their part of the bargain out of the way quickly. They'll have to get Sunday off to a good start literally and figuratively.

At first glance, the Patriots' defense kept the vaunted Bills' offense in check, letting up 355 yards and only 14 first downs. But that fails to take into account just how much Buffalo got done in its early possessions, allowing 175 yards and 17 points on the first three drives alone. Sure, that was an improvement from the last time they met in the Wild Card round ... but only because Buffalo scored on each of its first eight possessions.

Even if the Patriots have indeed made some offensive strides ... and, if last Sunday's game minus two long drives notwithstanding is any indication, the defense will have to carry the load here ... falling behind against the Bills is highly inadvisable. If the offense can channel the momentum-changing power of two 80-plus yard scoring drives and take an early lead, the Patriots will be in solid shape. There is sufficient momentum to do so: last week's 81-yard trek on their first go at it against Miami was their first scoring drive on an opening possession since Thanksgiving.

Last Hope? No ... There Is Another

If the Patriots' season is due for a storybook ending, it feels like Tyquan Thornton will have large say in its authorship. New England's presumed big play targets (i.e. DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor) have mostly underwhelmed this season, but Thornton is finding his professional rhythm over the past four weeks, culminating in a three-reception, 60-yard showing that included the touchdown on the aforementioned first drive of the game.

While that serves as a somewhat humble signature moment so far, Thornton has earned the trust and support of the most important people in Foxboro.

"Mac (Jones) likes to throw to him. (He's a) big, fast guy, and he's quarterback-friendly," head coach Bill Belichick said of Thornton, per Mass Live. "He opens up some other things because of his ability to stretch the field vertically. Hopefully, we can hit on him some more going forward.”

"As a young player, (I'm) definitely impressed with him," Jones himself added, per ClutchPoints. "His ability to communicate at a really high level during the games by telling me what he sees, too. Love our receivers and all those guys. They fight hard for each other, fight hard for the team. That’s what it’s all about.”

That certainly implies that Thornton is inching tantalizingly close to bigger opportunities. If he fulfills the potential shown in recent weeks, the Patriots may finally be able to act on their desires to go long.

Finder's Keepers

The immediate aftermath of the holiday season is perhaps defined by returns but the Patriots haven't bought into that idea. They haven't turned the ball over since "last year" after having a clean plate against Miami and even then they were taking care of the pigskin: since returning from their bye on Nov. 20, the Patriots have lost it only three times.

While the offense needs to work on doing things with the ball since they've proven more than capable of actually keeping it (handoffs to Rhamondre Stevenson can help eat away at clock against a Buffalo defense that ranks 30th in average drive length), it's always a good idea to keep the ball away from Josh Allen and Co., especially in your own territory.

On the other side, a prime opportunity lingers for the defense: Buffalo's last full game was a 35-13 slog over lowly Chicago that was far closer than it had to be thanks to three turnovers. That could mean payday that has forced eight takeaways over the last four.

Geoff Magliocchetti is on Twitter @GeoffJMags

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