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These stats explain how Chase Winovich could replace Trey Flowers

These stats could explain why the Patriots chose Chase Winovich to replace Trey Flowers on the defensive line.
These stats explain how Chase Winovich could replace Trey Flowers
These stats explain how Chase Winovich could replace Trey Flowers

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. - It's hard to say that any rookie will come into the New England Patriots' defensive scheme and give the same type of production that Trey Flowers gave them in 2018. Flowers was one of the most dominant edge rushers in the league last season, which is why he deservingly got paid big dollars to play for Matt Patricia and the Detroit Lions during free agency this offseason. 

Drafting Chase Winovich in the third-round was viewed as a "steal" for New England, as they were getting one of the better pass rushers in the 2019 NFL Draft on Day 2. But when you look closer at the stats, Winovich could be more than just a steal for the Patriots. He could be a perfect fit for their scheme and could replace Flowers' production on the edge. 

Stunt usage by New England's defense has gone up over the past three seasons, to the point where the Patriots had the highest stunt-usage percentage by far in the NFL during last year's postseason run (56.7 percent). This was over 20 percent more than they had used stunts in the 2018 regular season, per Anthony Treash of PFF. 

New England's defense has found success using stunts in regularity, which is why during the last three seasons in which they made Super Bowl appearances they have ranked top-3 in stunt usage. 

In 2018, Flowers was a prime beneficiary of stunt usage. When New England stunted on defense and Flowers was on the field they had a much higher pressure rate (50.3 percent) than when he wasn't on the field and they stunted (37.2 percent). Flowers finished last season eighth amongst edge defenders in pass-rush grade when running a stunt, and ninth in pass-rush win rate (20.3 percent). 

Who's another edge rusher who is excellent when stunting? 

Winovich. 

During his time at Michigan, the Wolverines defense had a 52.6 percent pressure rate when they stunted with Winovich on the field. That is a much higher success rate compared to when he wasn't on the field (42.1 percent). Winovich in 2018 had an 89.4 pass-rush grade and a 31.6 percent pass-rush win rate when stunting.

New England needed another inexpensive, yet highly productive edge rusher for the type of defense that they run. Winovich fits that profile for the Patriots and can give them high-valued production when the defense is trying to confuse opposing offenses with stunts. This may just be one similarity between Winovich and Flowers in terms of their abilities in certain scenarios. But it speaks volumes when trying to predict how the rookie will fit into New England's defensive scheme immediately. 

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