Fantasy Football: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Week 1 Patriots Edition
When Tom Brady left New England in March, the Patriots’ collective fantasy relevance was expected to take a major hit.
But a different former NFL MVP joined the team over the summer and sparked a lot more interest in the Patriots across the board – Cam Newton.
Newton won the starting quarterback job in training camp and will officially be handed the keys to the offense Sunday. Newton and the Patriots will take on the Miami Dolphins at 1 p.m. in their season-opener that will also serve as fantasy owners’ first look at New England’s new-look offense.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans may have already kicked off Thursday night, but there are still many lineup decisions owners will have to make before Sunday afternoon, including what to do with the Patriots on their roster. PatriotMaven will be breaking down the biggest start/sit dilemmas all season long, starting with New England’s Week 1 matchup with Miami.
All scores are calculated using half-point PPR, ESPN standard scoring
Start ‘Em: Cam Newton
By the end of last season, Brady was a fringe starting quarterback in fantasy leagues.
The future Hall of Famer put up just 14.8 points in a Week 17 loss against the Dolphins that cost the Patriots a playoff bye. Brady ended the season with the 12th-most fantasy points among quarterbacks, despite starting all 16 games.
Owners who drafted Newton in 2019 were likely even more disappointed, with the former Panther racking up just 16.7 points before leaving his second start with a season-ending injury. The season prior, he ended the year as QB12, but he finished 2017 as QB2 behind only Russell Wilson.
Now that he’s healthy and in a creative Josh McDaniels offense, Newton should return to form and be a top-10 fantasy quarterback again this year.
In his season-opening matchup against the Dolphins, he’ll be playing a defense that allowed 22.5 points to opposing quarterbacks per game in 2019 – good for second-most in the league. Add in the fact that mobile quarterbacks Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson put up an average of 29.6 points per game in their three combined appearances against Miami last season and Newton has a great matchup to open his Patriots career.
It would be unrealistic to expect a top-five day from Newton, but he should put up good enough numbers to be a solid starter in 10-team leagues.
Sit ‘Em: Sony Michel
New England's running back room is just as crowded as it has been in the past, and that doesn’t bode well for Michel in Week 1.
That may not be as much of an issue moving forward in 2020, but considering Michel is still coming back from foot surgery in June, he won’t be getting a full workload out of the gates. With Rex Burkhead and James White ready to get touches, Michel likely won’t be the lead back come Sunday.
Michel averaged 12.9 points per game against the Dolphins in 2019, which is certainly nothing to dismiss right off the bat. But those solid numbers came moreso out of volume – 19.5 carries per game – than efficiency – 4.0 yards per carry.
Since his ongoing recovery is expected to limit him from his regular number of touches, Michel won’t be worth starting even as a flex in deeper leagues this week. A touchdown could save his day, since he is still the Patriots’ most prototypical goal line ball carrier, but his ceiling is still low regardless.
Start ‘Em: James White
White and Michel may be in the same backfield, but the former has a chance to put together a much better performance than the latter.
White doesn’t need 20 carries or multiple touchdowns to be an effective fantasy player, since he does most of his damage on screens, checkdowns and draws. His ability to thrive as a receiving back makes him significantly more relevant in PPR leagues, but he can still be a shifty change-of-pace back with the ball in his hands as well.
Newton played with Christian McCaffrey the past three seasons in Carolina, helping the running back post 13 touchdowns and 1,965 yards from scrimmage in 2018. The Newton-White combination won’t be nearly as explosive as that one, but White should still thrive working with Newton this season.
The Dolphins boasted the sixth-worst fantasy defense against running backs in 2019, and while they did make significant additions to their linebacking corps, White should still be able to pick them apart in the short game Sunday.
The volume and potential as a receiving back will make White a good flex play in most leagues.
Sit ‘Em: Julian Edelman
The Patriots’ most reliable receiver for the past decade showed signs of declining late in 2019, and not having Brady under center could hurt him more than anyone else.
Edelman has racked up over 3,000 receiving yards and 400 fantasy points over the last three seasons, but that is with nearly 10 targets per game in that span. Newton is different from Brady in a number of ways, one of which is that he doesn’t have the same relationship and chemistry with Edelman that his predecessor did.
The 34-year-old slot man struggled against the Dolphins’ secondary even with Brady at the helm in 2019 – he scored just 11.3 total fantasy points in his two games against them. If Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are healthy and the Eric Rowe safety experiment continues to pay off for Miami, Edelman likely won’t make a huge impact Sunday.
Because of a new quarterback, past struggles and the potential presence of father time, Edelman won’t be worth a start in any spot in Week 1.
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