How Can Ravens Exploit Arik Armstead-Less 49ers?
The San Francisco 49ers have the fourth-best run defense in football this season. A big reason for their success - outside of All-Pro linebackers in the back end - has been the improved play of eight-year NFL veteran Arik Armstead.
Luckily for the Baltimore Ravens, Armstead's lingering hamstring injury will keep him out of Monday's marquee matchup.
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Just how important is Armstead to San Francisco's run defense, though? Is his absence so significant that Lamar Jackson and the Ravens can exploit an otherwise elite unit?
The answer, as it always is when dissecting the 49ers, is a complex one.
Looking at the numbers, Armstead's absence is a massive loss that the Ravens can use to their advantage. While his run defense grade via Pro Football Focus is an average of 59.8, it's higher than any other interior lineman this year on the team.
Here's a list of the four defensive tackles for the 49ers and their run grade:
Arik Armstead - 59.8
Javon Hargrave - 51.0
Javon Kinlaw - 29.4
Kevin Givens - 47.3
Other defensive ends like Randy Gregory (53.7) and Chase Young (60.0) aren't necessarily excelling against the run either. Only Nick Bosa on the edge has an "elite" run defense grade of 84.
For the second-best rushing offense in football, the Ravens should be able to have their way on the ground on Monday night. Baltimore leads the league in runs for first downs, and second in yards per carry.
As strong as Baltimore's rushing attack has been, the 49ers do a pretty good job against running quarterbacks. San Francisco has given up just 232 rushing yards to quarterbacks with an average of 3.8 yards per carry. They however are 19th in yards per carry allowed.
Their success against scrambling quarterbacks notwithstanding, there are few scrambling quarterbacks as lethal on the ground as Jackson.
The former NFL MVP has run for a 5.5-yard per-carry clip with over 700 yards via his legs. Jackson is currently second in the MVP voting with over 3,800 yards of total offense.
Jackson's ability as a passer has also helped the Ravens' offense excel through the air - not just on the ground. It's a fundamental reason why Baltimore is not only first in the AFC North, but in a loaded in the AFC as well.
"You can't just sit there and say, 'Hey, just hold him in the pocket. Don't let him get loose," 49ers linebacker Fred Warner said of Jackson. "You hold him in the pocket, and you don't apply pressure, then he's going to hit you deep. So that's where it's like, we got to be on top of every little detail this week."
Without their best interior defender against the run, it will be a lot harder for San Francisco to handle Baltimore's top rushing attack.
With additional runners like Gus Edwards and Justice Hill in the backfield, there's a clear way that the Ravens can succeed in a matchup between the two best teams in football.
