Ravens Projected to Have Close to 11 Wins, Third Best in AFC

Ravens picked to win AFC North

While the Ravens have the league's second-toughest schedule, they're still projected to win the AFC North.

An analysis by Cynthia Frelund, NFL Network Analytics Expert, projects the Ravens to have 10.8 wins, just behind the Kansas City Chiefs (11.9 wins and Buffalo Bills (11.1).

Freelund ran 50,000 simulations for all of the NFL's 272 regular-season games using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 12. 

"Excluding divisional games, which kind of follow a different cadence from regular-season contests, the Ravens have pretty optimal spacing between the two most difficult dates on their schedule, with the Chiefs coming in Week 2 (Sept. 19) and Packers coming in Week 15 (Dec. 19)," Freelund wrote. "The stretch of Weeks 12-14, which includes the Browns twice and one trip to Pittsburgh, could go a long way toward determining which AFC North team wins the division and which ends up as a wild-card squad; this division is the most likely in all of football to send at least two teams to the playoffs."

The AFC North shaped up like this:

1. Ravens — 10.8

2. Browns — 10.5

3. Steelers — 7.7

4. Bengals— 6.1

Baltimore plays five AFC North games, including two matchups with the Steelers, over the final seven weeks of the season, which will likely decide the division.

The Ravens have the league's second-toughest schedule behind Pittsburgh. Baltimore's opponents had a .563 winning percentage last season, compared to .574 for the Steelers.

For the eighth time in team history – and the second consecutive season – the Ravens will appear on Monday Night Football twice (at Las Vegas and vs. Indianapolis).

Baltimore will play at home on Monday night for just the fourth time since Harbaugh’s 2008 Baltimore arrival. (The Ravens have been scheduled for 14 road Monday night games, including in 2021 at Las Vegas, during Harbaugh’s 14-year tenure.)

Screen Shot 2021-05-12 at 7.56.02 PM