Saints Pass Defense vs. Buccaneers Passing Game
The 7-8 New Orleans Saints are down to their last gasp. A loss at the 8-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday will officially, and perhaps mercifully, eliminate them from playoff contention. A win keeps them alive, with some help, for the NFC South title the following week (possibly even a wild-card spot with an absurd amount of help).
Perhaps it's fitting that coach Dennis Allen's fate could ride on the shoulders of the Saints defense, his specialty. It's a defense that was ripped apart in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams last Thursday. New Orleans has been bad against the run all season, but their pass defense put up its worst performance of the year against the Rams.
The Saints bring a defense that ranks 14th in total yardage into Week 17. They've given up an average of 321.6 yards per game, while their 19.8 points per contest ranks ninth in the league. New Orleans has forced 22 turnovers this season, but none in three of their last four games.
Tampa Bay comes in riding a four-game winning streak, scoring at least 29 points in their last three outings. The Buccaneers average 316.3 yards of total offense per game, ranking 23rd, with their 21.7 point/game average ranking 17th. They've had some recent rushing success, but this offense is built around the rebirth of QB Baker Mayfield and a talented group of wideouts.
Mayfield and the Buccaneers handled the Saints easily with a 26-9 win back in Week 4. Most of that victory was on the strength of the Tampa Bay defense. However, the Buccaneers were able to do just enough offensively for the win. If Mayfield is able to duplicate his efficient performance from that day, it could be enough to end the Saints' season.
Tampa Bay Passing Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) drops back to pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY
Dec 24, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) drops back to pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Baker Mayfield has been far from spectacular, but he's been highly efficient recently and careful with the ball all season. It's been enough to spark rumors of a potential contract extension for the seventh-year pro and first overall pick of the 2018 draft.
Mayfield has completed 64.3% of his throws for an average of 240 yards/game for a passing attack that ranks 17th in the NFL. He's thrown 26 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions while moving away from pressure well and showing good command of the offense.
Tampa Bay has one of the best wideout duos in the league. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have combined for 147 catches and yards 2,055 yards. That accounts for over 57% of Mayfield's yardage. Both are extremely physical targets with good enough athleticism to threaten defenses at every level.
Godwin has 892 yards, but just one touchdown, on a team-high 74 receptions. He has two 100-yard outings and two more with at least 70. Evans is having perhaps the best season of a potential Hall of Fame 10-year career. He's pulled in 73 catches for 1,163 yards and a league-high 13 touchdowns with three 100-yard games and four more with at least 70.
Oct 1, 2023; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) runs past New Orleans Saints safety Johnathan Abram (24) after a reception. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY
Rookie sixth-round choice Trey Palmer and return specialist Deven Thompkins have developed into underrated complements at wideout. Palmer, with 33 catches and 291 yards, has flashed the abilities of a potential Number 2 receiver. Undrafted rookie WR Rakim Jarrett, who has also had some key catches, is designated to return from injured reserve after missing the last five games.
Second-year TE Cade Otton has emerged as a quality pass catcher. Otton, who is a terrific route runner with sure hands, has 43 receptions for 415 yards and four touchdowns. Backups Ko Kieft and Payne Durham are little more than extentions of the offensive line and rare short yardage options.
Second-year RB Rachaad White is an outstanding receiver out of the backfield. White has 56 catches for 507 yards with three touchdowns. Only Breece Hall and Christian McCaffrey have more receiving yards from the running back spot. Backup RB Chase Edmonds has only eight catches, but has been a quality check-down option throughout his career.
Pass protection was an issue for the Buccaneers early on, but they've fortified themselves with improved health along the interior. Left tackle Tristan Wirfs is among the league's best linemen at any spot. Second-year RT Luke Goedeke has had some struggles but shows promising upside.
On the inside, guards Aaron Stinnie, rookie Cody Mauch, and C Robert Hainsey have had some protection issues. Mauch is a mauler best suited for run blocking, while Stinnie and Hainsey are more technical in their craft. Mayfield has been sacked 35 times this year. The Buccaneers often take advantage of his mobility with roll outs and moving pockets.
New Orleans Pass Defense
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Trey Palmer (10) catches a touchdown despite close coverage from New Orleans Saints cornerback Isaac Yiadom (27). Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints rank seventh against the pass this season, surrendering an average of 194.7 yards per game and 58% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks. However, they're coming off a putrid outing against the Rams, with Matthew Stafford throwing for 328 yards and receivers shredding their coverage.
It was the only game this season where the Saints have allowed a quarterback over 270 yards. However, they have given up 11 receiving games of at least 70 yards, including four 100-yard performances. They've had particular troubles with athletic tight ends because safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Jordan Howden have played below expectations.
Even without injured CB Marshon Lattimore, the Saints have one of the best trios of corners of corners in the league. Isaac Yiadom, despite heavy targets, has held up well as an injury replacement. Yiadom has an interception and 13 passes broken up while allowing just 49% completion percentage.
Paulson Adebo has probably been the Saints defensive MVP. Physical and agile in man coverage, Adebo leads the team in interceptions (4) and passes broken up (16) while surrendering 57% completion percentage in man coverage. Talented second-year CB Alontae Taylor has had his ups and downs while adjusting to the slot. He's broken up 12 throws, but has yet to record an interception and allows 62% completion rate. Taylor has also added a sack and six tackles for loss.
Lack of a consistent pass rush has crippled this defense in big moments. New Orleans has just 31 sacks, the fourth lowest total in the league, along with 69 QB hits. The most disappointing production has been from 13-year veteran DE Cameron Jordan, who has only two sacks and six QB hits despite 18 pressures.
Dec 19, 2021; New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) sacks Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12). Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Jordan's slide has overshadowed a strong, but somewhat inconsistent year from DE Carl Granderson. Leading the Saints in sacks (8.5), QB hits (19), pressures (26), and tackles for loss (13), Granderson has had a breakout campaign. Tanoh Kpassagnon (3.5 sacks, 9 QB hits) is a good rotational piece and has been disruptive over the last few games.
The Saints have gotten little from injured DE Payton Turner and disappointing rookie Isaiah Foskey. Zack Baun has provided some pressure in recent weeks after being used at rush end instead of off-ball linebacker, where he was a major liability.
New Orleans needs more interior disruption. First-round choice Bryan Bresee has had a strong rookie campaign with 3.5 sacks, 12 pressures, and six tackles for loss. Nathan Shepherd, who's added 2.5 sacks and 10 pressures, could also be a potential X-factor.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) is brought down by New Orleans Saints linebacker Pete Werner (20) and defensive end Carl Granderson (96). Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports
Another liability this season has been third-year LB Pete Werner, who has been extremely vulnerable in open space. Werner remains solid against the run at the line of scrimmage. However, opponents have repeatedly had great success against him in the open field.
The ineffectiveness of the other linebackers has exposed Demario Davis at times. Still a terrific player, Davis looks to have lost a step, which has been especially evident when he's left on an island at the second level. However, he still has the ability to make game-changing plays for his defense.
Davis still possesses elite instincts and awareness, along with the athleticism to hold up in man coverage when asked. His well-timed blitzes can also give the pass rush a much-needed boost. On the year, Davis has 6.5 sacks, 11 QB hits, four passes broken up, and nine stops for loss while allowing 57% completion percentage in coverage.
What to Watch
New Orleans Saints cornerback Paulson Adebo (29) covers Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13). Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Marshon Lattimore's injury stops us from seeing the NFL's best individual rivalry between he and Mike Evans. The Saints must therefore find an answer for the All-Pro wideout, which could possibly be shadowing him with Paulson Adebo in the way they would with Lattimore.
Godwin shouldn't be overlooked either. In 12 career matchups between these teams, Godwin has four 100-yard games (including earlier this year) and has averaged five catches for 70 yards. Adebo, Taylor, and Yiadom must certainly rebound from awful outings against the Rams.
The pass rush needs to do their coverage a favor by hurrying and disrupting Mayfield. It's something they haven't done most of the year and certainly didn't do in the first matchup between these teams. In that game, Mayfield was sacked just once, pressured only three times, completed 25 of 32 throws for 246 yards, and also made critical plays with his legs.
Outside of the last time these teams met, Dennis Allen's defenses have often done a great job at disrupting the Buccaneers offense, especially up front. New Orleans is on the brink of missing the postseason for the third straight year. To cling onto fading hopes to continue their season, they'll need to rely on a defensive rebound.
