Saints Pass Defense Should Have Advantage Against Panthers Passing Game
The New Orleans Saints stagger into Week 14 with a 5-7 record and losers of three straight. Now in third place in the NFC South, the Saints host the 1-11 Carolina Panthers on Sunday in a must-win situation.
To get back into the win column, the Saints will need help from a defense that's greatly disappointed over the last seven games. Over that span, they've allowed an average of 19 points, 240 yards, and 58% third down percentage in the first half alone.
New Orleans comes into Week 14 having slipped to 15th in total defense. They rank near the top of the league in turnovers forced, but have given up an average of 21.3 points and 322.5 yards per contest. Most of their issues have been against the run, but they've also suffered coverage breakdowns and given up crucial plays against the pass.
Carolina's offensive struggles caused them to fire coach Frank Reich after only 11 games. Interim coach Chris Tabor oversees an offense that ranks 29th in points scored (15.9/game), 30th in total yardage (267.3), and 24th in third down conversions.
Despite using the first overall draft pick on QB Bryce Young, the Panthers have been held to less than 20 points in their last six outings and in nine of twelve games. The Saints hope to revert back to the stout pass defense that they showed early in the season, but will have to overcome their own major flaw.
Carolina Passing Game
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) throws against the New Orleans Saints. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
The Panthers average a meager 171.3 yards per game through the air, ranking 30th in the NFL. Bryce Young has completed 60.6% of his throws with nine touchdowns and nine interceptions. However, he's been held to less than 195 yards in his last five starts and under 60% completion percentage in four of those outings.
Young is a poised pocket passer with the athleticism to make plays with his legs. He doesn't run much, with just 161 yards rushing, but did pick up two 17-yard scrambles earlier this year against a Saints defense that's been helpless against mobile quarterbacks. The future of the Carolina franchise, he's flashed tremendous accuracy at every level of a defense.
The Panthers simply have not surrounded their young quarterback with enough playmakers. Ten-year veteran WR Adam Thielen has had a highly productive year with a team-high 80 catches for 753 yards and four scores. Despite three 100-yard games and three more with over 70, Thielen is better suited for a complementary role at this stage of his career.
Rookie second-round pick, WR Jonathan Mingo, is a physical receiver that's shown nice potential. Mingo has 34 receptions for 355 yards, but has yet to reach the end zone and has had some issues getting separation. Sixth-year WR D.J. Chark was expected to be a better big-play threat when acquired last offseason, but hasn't panned out.
Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) with a catch as New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore (23) defends. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Chark has just 23 catches for 319 yards with three touchdowns. Former second-round choice Terrace Marshall continues to underachieve with just 18 receptions and 134 yards with no scores. Mike Strachan and Ihmir Smith-Marsette are really nothing more than special teamers.
The Panthers don't target their running backs often. Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders have combined to catch 50 passes for 291 yards mostly as check-down options. Each are capable playmakers in the open field with excellent vision.
Carolina tight ends have been banged up but effective when healthy. Hayden Hurst is an underrated receiver, despite just 18 receptions for 184 yards. Tommy Tremble, their blocking specialist, has three touchdowns with his 13 catches.
The Panthers also haven't given Young any time for receivers to get open. Carolina quarterbacks have been sacked 47 times this season, fourth most in the NFL. Most of their issues are with interior protection. Bradley Bozeman has underachieved at center. Guards Justin McCray and Nash Jensen have performed poorly as replacements for injured Austin Corbett and Brady Christensen.
Carolina LT Ikem Ekwonu has played at the level expected of him when the Panthers drafted him sixth overall in 2022. He's one of the few legitimate building blocks around Young. Veteran RT Taylor Moton has been less consistent, but is still a solid blocker.
New Orleans Pass Defense
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) looks to pass as New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) pressures. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints rank seventh against the pass, giving up only 197 yards per game and just two quarterbacks over 260 yards this season. Opposing passers are completing only 59% of their throws against New Orleans and the Saints have interceptions, second most in the league.
After being among the NFL leaders in sacks for five seasons, the Saints have been putrid in that capacity in 2023. Only one team has fewer than their 18 sacks and they've managed just eight in the last seven contests. Their defensive ends have only nine combined sacks and 28 QB hits.
Fifth-year DE Carl Granderson is having his best season. He has 5.5 sacks, 19 pressures, and 10 tackles for loss. All are the highest marks on the team, but he's been extremely quiet in recent weeks. Future Hall of Famer Cam Jordan is having his least productive year with only two sacks, six QB hits, and 17 pressures.
Jordan is also dealing with a severe ankle injury that limited him to only 17 snaps last Sunday. He has yet to practice this week, but is a warrior who will almost certainly play if he can walk. Veteran Tanoh Kpassagnon is the primary edge depth. Kpassagnon is a high motor defender, but isn't a dynamic pass rusher.
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) is pressured by New Orleans Saints defensive tackle Nathan Shepherd (93). Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints have gotten just as little disruption from their defensive tackles. Rookie first-round choice Bryan Bresee had a strong start with 1.5 sacks and four QB hits in his first four games. Outside of an impressive six passes batted down, he's been quiet over the last handful of contests and seems to have hit the rookie wall. Still, Bresee has tremendous upside.
Free agent acquisition Nathan Shepherd has had a quietly effective season. Shepherd has two sacks and eight pressures inside despite constant double-team blocking. The other offseason DT addition, Khalen Saunders, has done next to nothing. Making matters worse is the fact that DT Malcolm Roach (knee) is lost for at least four weeks to injured reserve.
Linebacker Demario Davis is still a very good defender thanks to elite instincts and versatility. Davis has four sacks, seven QB hits, and three passes broken up. However, Davis has appeared a step slower in coverage and has no support among the other linebackers.
Pete Werner has been victimized, often, in the open field this season. He has decent instincts for zone duties, just not the athleticism to match up. He's also been dealing with a shoulder injury, leaving a much worse counterpart in Zack Baun to take more snaps. The coaching staff has (finally) taken advantage of Baun's best traits and have been allowing him to rush the passer and play more downhill. When in the open field, he's an even bigger liability than Werner.
By far the best position on this entire team this season has been cornerback. Even with elite CB Marshon Lattimore on injured reserve, the Saints still have magnificent cover options. Isaac Yiadom has played terrific football when injuries to Paulson Adebo earlier this year and now Lattimore have thrust him into the lineup. Yiadom has an interception to go along with eight passes broken up and is allowing less than 53% completion percentage when targeted.
Sep 19, 2021; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Robby Anderson (11) and New Orleans Saints cornerback Paulson Adebo (29) vie for the reception. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY
Adebo is probably the defensive MVP this season. The physical corner has four interceptions, 14 passes broken up, and gives up only 56.5% completion rate in man coverage. Second-year CB Alontae Taylor has had some rocky moments adjusting to the slot. Despite no interceptions, Taylor is still a playmaker with 10 passes broken up, a sack, five tackles for loss, and less than 62% completion rate when targeted.
The Saints haven't been as fortunate at safety. Tyrann Mathieu has three interceptions, but has clearly lost a step in man coverage and is a poor tackler in the open field. However, his anticipation still makes him dangerous with his eyes on the quarterback. Rookie S Jordan Howden has shown promising ability, but needs to hone his own instincts with experience.
Howden has had to play more than planned because of injuries to veteran S Marcus Maye, who is now on injured reserve with a shoulder issue. Veterans Lonnie Johnson Jr. and Johnathan Abram are well past their prime and targeted with great success by opponents when they're in the lineup.
What to Watch
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) tries to escape New Orleans Saints defensive tackle Nathan Shepherd (93). Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints have been gashed by tight ends over the last month. Cole Kmet, T.J. Hockenson, and Sam LaPorta have combined for 26 catches, 329 yards, and five touchdowns in three of the last four weeks. Hayden Hurst isn't in their category, but has the ability to make plays to influence a game.
Without Lattimore, using Taylor or Yiadom to cover a tight end would thin their coverage units against multiple receiver sets. This means that Howden, Mathieu, or Davis must lock down Hurst while the corners prevent Thielen, Mingo, and Chark from giving Young easy throws.
Based on what we've seen, it's hard to believe that New Orleans will be able to generate much pressure on Young with their front four. Perhaps Baun, Davis, or even Taylor will be used in a more blitz-heavy approach. Expect the Saints to mix up their defensive packages against Young, but they must be able to get penetration into the backfield to have any success.
New Orleans has been pathetic defensively over the first half of their last seven outings. They need to come out crisp and aggressive to prevent the Panthers from establishing any momentum with the run or the pass. Snapping their three-game losing streak likely depends on it.
