Saints Pass Offense vs. Broncos Pass Defense
The 8-2 New Orleans Saints are in first place in the NFC South and own the conference's top seed with six weeks remaining in the regular season. They are looking for their eighth consecutive victory this Sunday, when they travel to take on a 4-6 Denver Broncos team fighting to get into AFC playoff contention. New Orleans enters this game with the league's 12th ranked offense. They average 373 yards per game and put up an average of 29.5 points per contest, fifth best in the league. They've scored over 30 points five times this season, but have only reached that mark once in the last five games, a 38-3 win at Tampa Bay in Week Nine.
The Saints passing attack ranks 15th in the NFL with an average of 248 yards per contest, despite a rash of injuries through their receiving corps early in the year. New Orleans will now be without Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees, who led the league in completion percentage and had five games of at least 280 yards passing this season. Brees left a week 10 victory over San Francisco with a serious rib injury that will force him to miss at least this game and next week against the Falcons.
Nov 22, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) throws against the Atlanta Falcons during the first quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY
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Taysom Hill earned his first career start against Atlanta last week in place of Brees. Hill responded by completing 18 of 23 passes for 233 yards in a 24-9 win. He didn't have a touchdown pass, but also didn't throw an interception while running the team's offense with surprising efficiency.
The Saints face a Denver defense that ranks 13th overall (346 yards/game), but 21st in points allowed with 26.7 against them per contest. The Broncos rank 9th against the pass, surrendering 225 yards per game through the air and 66% completion percentage to opposing passers. Four quarterbacks have thrown for at least 275 yards against Denver this season, but the Broncos have allowed just 15 touchdown passes and have held four opponents below 200 net yards passing this year.
Nov 22, 2020; Denver, Colorado, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) is sacked by Denver Broncos defensive end DeMarcus Walker (57) and outside linebacker Bradley Chubb (55) and outside linebacker Malik Reed (59) in the second quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY
The Broncos lost one of the league's best pass rushers in Von Miller before the year even started. They’ve also endured season-ending injuries to defensive linemen Jurrell Casey and Mike Purcell, and DE Shelby Harris being on the Reserve-Covid list for the last four games. Despite this, Denver still has 28 sacks and 62 QB hits. Edge rusher Bradley Chubb leads the team with 27 quarterback pressures and is tied for the team lead with 6.5 sacks. Second-year OLB Malik Reed has come on strong since the first month of the year, recording all of his 6.5 sacks and 12 QB hits in the last six games.
The Broncos may be thin up front, but DeMarcus Walker, Dre’Mont Jones, and DeShawn Williams are a dangerous pass rushing trio. The three linemen have combined for 6.5 sacks and 12 QB hits, allowing Denver to bring pressure from all angles. Head Coach Vic Fangio and defensive coordinator Ed Donatell are aggressive against opposing passers, running a variety of different blitzes from everywhere on the field. Linebackers Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson and inside pressure, while their defensive backs are used to add additional pressure off the edge.
Nov 1, 2020; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos cornerback Bryce Callahan (29) battles for the ball with Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams (81) in the third quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Eight players have had at least 80 yards receiving against the Broncos this season. A cornerback position that was banged up early in the year now has its full complement of players, however, helping the defense to be among the league leaders in fewest yards per pass attempt. Top corner Bryce Callahan has 2 interceptions and has not given up a touchdown pass while allowing just 52.7% completion percentage when targeted. Fellow CB A.J. Bouye doesn't have an interception this year and has allowed 72% completion percentage when targeted, but has only given up one score. Rookie CB Michael Ojemudia has rebounded from early struggles (3 touchdowns surrendered) to allow just 58.5% completion percentage when targeted.
The Broncos have only 7 interceptions this season and their linebackers are limited in coverage, but they have a pair of playmaking safeties on the back end. Free safety Justin Simmons has 15 career interceptions in less than five seasons, including a team-high 4 this season. Veteran S Kareem Jackson is a former cornerback who has allowed only one touchdown and 59.3% completion percentage when targeted this season.
Nov 8, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) under center against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first quarter of a NFL game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY
The Saints protect their quarterbacks well, allowing only 16 sacks this season, three of Hill last week. They will be without LT Terron Armstead (positive COVID test) and LG Andrus Peat (concussion) for this contest and will go with James Hurst at tackle and Nick Easton at guard. Hill has terrific mobility and can escape the rush, but must be decisive in his decision-making.
New Orleans will also be without WR/KR Deonte Harris, who suffered a neck injury last week, but will otherwise have their full receiving corps available. Wideout Michael Thomas looked back at All-Pro form in his third week back in the lineup against Atlanta, catching 9 passes for 104 yards. Veteran Emmanuel Sanders is a terrific complement to Thomas and has 35 receptions for 413 yards and 3 touchdowns. Undrafted rookie WR Marquez Callaway will take Harris’ snaps at both wide receiver and kick returner, and has been a pleasant surprise this year with 15 catches for 136 yards while averaging 10 yards on punt returns and 26 yards on kickoff returns.
Nov 8, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) runs the ball against Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting (23) in the first quarter of a NFL game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY
Tight end Jared Cook will have a crucial matchup against Denver safety Justin Simmons. Cook has had a quiet season statistically, with 22 receptions for 285 yards, but is tied with a team-high 4 touchdown catches and leads the Saints in average per catch. Running back Alvin Kamara leads the team with 67 receptions for 648 yards and 4 touchdowns. They use Kamara all around the offensive formation, and he should enjoy an athletic advantage over the Broncos linebackers as a receiver.
Denver will use an aggressive scheme of exotic blitzes and different coverage looks at Hill in this game. It’s the type of scheme that forced an equally inexperienced quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, into a poor outing in the Broncos win over the Dolphins last week. Establishing control of the line of scrimmage to maintain balance and keeping the pass rush off Hill is crucial to offensive success. The New Orleans receivers will also have to win their assignments and get open quickly against a Denver defense that doesn't give up much down the field.
Nov 22, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) at the line against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY
Taysom Hill was impressive last week with his composure in the pocket and accuracy as a passer. He will need a similar performance this week. Hill will be challenged to make his decisions quickly against a Broncos defense far better than the one he faced from Atlanta. He must not only be able to avoid their pass rush, but be decisive in his reads to get the ball to his receivers in a position to make plays.
