Saints Passing Game vs. Buccaneers Pass Defense
On the brink of playoff elimination, the New Orleans Saints (7-8) play at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) on Sunday afternoon. A win keeps the Saints postseason chances alive going into the final week, while a loss officially eliminates them.
There are plenty of reasons why the Saints find themselves here. Not least among them is a disappointing offense that has been guilty of poor execution, bad play-calling, and horrendous red zone results (although the latter has improved recently). New Orleans ranks 14th in total offense. They average 22 points and 335 yards per game. However, the offensive line has been outright bad and both QB Derek Carr and the running game have gone through long stretches of ineffective play.
Trying to put the final nail in the New Orleans postseason coffin is NFC South rival Tampa Bay, who's on a four-game winning streak. The Buccaneers are 11th in points allowed (20.1/ game), but just 24th in total defense with 356.2 yards per game against them. They are also among the league's best with 24 turnovers forced and fourth in red zone efficiency, but only 26th in third down defense.
Much of Tampa Bay's defensive success has been against the run. They've been extremely vulnerable against the pass and will be missing two top-tier starters with injuries. Will much-maligned Saints QB Derek Carr be able to take advantage and keep New Orleans in the playoff hunt?
Tampa Bay Pass Defense
Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Vita Vea (50) pressures New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4). Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY
The Buccaneers rank dead last against the pass, giving up 264 yards per contest. They've allowed an eye-popping seven 300-yard passers and two more outings of at least 270. Tampa Bay has intercepted 13 passes, but opposing quarterbacks are completing 66% of their throws against them.
Making matters worse for the Bucs is the fact that they'll be missing top pass rusher Shaquill Barrett (4.5 sacks, 19 pressures) and CB Carlton Davis (2 interceptions, 9 passes broken up). They have decent depth in both spots, but it will be tested.
Tampa Bay has 44 sacks and 80 QB hits this season. Leading the team is surprisingly not Barrett, but rookie third-round edge rusher Yaya Diaby with 6.5 takedowns despite just 11 pressures. Edge Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, a first-round pick in 2021, has four sacks and 11 pressures of his own. He and Anthony Nelson (3 sacks, 6 QB hits) will take Barrett's reps.
The Buccaneers also get extremely good interior pressure up front. Massive DT Vita Vea has 5.5 sacks and nine QB hits despite constant double and triple team blocking. His powerful presence has given one-on-one opportunities for his teammates up front. William Gholston and Greg Gaines are underrated pass rushers, but the light has yet to turn on for 2022 second-round choice Logan Hall.
One player who has emerged recently is rookie first-rounder Calijah Kancey. Injuries hampered him early on, but Kancey has gotten stronger as the season has progressed and has four sacks along with a team-high 12 QB hits. As if tenacious pressure from the defensive line and edge weren't enough, the Buccaneers also expertly use inside LBs Lavonte David and Devin White on blitzes.
The athletic White has 2.5 sacks and eight QB hits, but just average instincts that allow opponents to exploit him in coverage despite his two interceptions. David is one of the NFL's best linebackers. He's still very instinctive in coverage and has 4.5 sacks included in his team-high 113 tackles.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (31) celebrates a sack of New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4). Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY
Tampa Bay has allowed an incredible 10 100-yard receivers and an additional eight outings of at least 70 yards. With Davis out, corners Zyon McCollum and Christian Izien will step into even bigger roles. Izien, an undrafted rookie, has two interceptions but allows 74% completion percentage when targeted.
McCollum, a bigger second-year pro, has broken up nine throws and allows only 59% completion percentage. On the other side, CB Jamel Dean has also dealt with nagging injuries all year. This season, Dean is allowing completions at a 65% rate while breaking up just three passes without an interception in 11 games.
Antoine Winfield Jr. is among the league's elite group of safeties. He's an outstanding blitzer (five sacks), a sure tackler (110 stops with five fumbles forced), and is outstanding in deep support or slot coverage. Winfield leads the team with both three interceptions and 12 passes broken up. Dee Delaney (2 interceptions) and Ryan Neal round out a hard-hitting trio of safeties.
New Orleans Passing Game
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) looks to pass the ball. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints rank 12th in the league in passing production with 236 yards per game. Derek Carr has completed 67.4% of his throws with just 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Carr has six 300-yard games, but at times has been guilty of both indecisiveness and poor accuracy.
Lack of protection hasn't helped Carr. New Orleans quarterbacks have been sacked 31 times, but also under heavy duress in several moments this season. Along the edge, Andrus Peat has provided an upgrade at left tackle since the mid-season benching of Trevor Penning. However, underwhelming Landon Young will again get the start at RT for an injured Ryan Ramczyk.
Interior pass protection has often been abysmal. Guards Cesar Ruiz, James Hurst, and C Erik McCoy have been grossly incapable of dealing with inside twists and stunts. Ruiz, in particular, has been a human turnstile at times for opposing pass rushers.
If given time, Carr has a capable group of pass catchers despite Michael Thomas on injured reserve. Second-year WR Chris Olave leads the group, pulling in 81 receptions for 1,041 yards and four touchdowns. Olave has five 100-yard games and three more with more than 85 yards, but has failed to convert the critical plays that ''elite'' receivers make.
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) after a catch against Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Zyon McCollum (27). Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Fellow second-year WR Rashid Shaheed is feared by defenses because of his tremendous speed. He's also an underrated route runner nearly the equal of Olave, but often underused. Shaheed has 41 catches for 641 yards and four scores despite missing two games and most of another.
With Thomas out, no other wideout has stepped up to be a consistent complement to Shaheed and Olave. Rookie sixth-round choice A.T. Perry has flashed impressive potential with eight catches for 188 yards and two scores in eight games. Veteran Lynn Bowden (9-72) has nice versatility, while Keith Kirkwood and Marquez Callaway fill out the depth chart.
The tight ends have been a disappointment for the Saints this season. Converted wideout Juwan Johnson has 26 catches for 238 yards and three touchdowns, but has pulled in less than 60% of his targets. Johnson is an athletic mismatch for most linebackers, but has struggled with drops and separation. Foster Moreau, a more traditional in-line tight end, isn't a downfield threat but has caught 19 of 23 targets for 177 yards and a score.
The lack of usage of veteran Jimmy Graham has been almost criminal. Graham has caught just six passes this season, but four went for touchdowns and another was near the goal line to set up a score. Certainly no longer what he was, Graham is still a 6'7" target who has sure hands and expertly uses his body in traffic.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) in open field against Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis (24). Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports
If Graham is criminally underused, than RB Alvin Kamara has been criminally misused. Kamara has 462 receiving yards on 73 catches. Despite missing the first three games of the year, he has more receptions and more targets than any other NFL running back.
More than just a target for screens and check down throws, Kamara runs routes like a seasoned wideout when he lines up in the slot or out wide. Too often in recent seasons, the Saints have not gotten Kamara involved enough in the passing game or not utilized his full set of skills when they have.
Listed as a tight end, all-purpose threat Taysom Hill has been dealing with a foot injury and quiet in recent weeks. More than just a rushing weapon, Hill has caught 27 balls for 233 yards. He also provides a viable passing threat when lining up in the backfield. Getting Hill involved in multiple ways opens up chances for the other players and seems to boost the entire unit.
What to Watch
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws under pressure against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY
Protecting Carr long enough to go through his progressions is the biggest key. Especially on the inside, where DTs Vea, Kancey, and inside blitzes from White and David will be problematic. Using Kamara as a receiver should pull either White or David out and set up critical one-on-one matchups. Expect New Orleans to keep a tight end as an extra blocker to help Landon Young at the edge on their right side.
Olave, Shaheed, and the tight ends must convert plays consistently in the Tampa Bay secondary. It's where the Buccaneers have been consistently vulnerable, but New Orleans must be smart with their route designs and get separation for Carr.
When these teams met back in Week 4, Tampa Bay held Carr to a pathetic 127 yards passing and recorded three sacks in a 26-9 win. Simply put, if anything even close to this happens again then the Saints season is over.
