Saints Run Offense vs. Broncos Run Defense
The 8-2 New Orleans Saints look to notch their eighth straight victory with a win on the road against the 4-6 Denver Broncos this Sunday. They come into the game with the NFL's 12th ranked offense, averaging 373.4 yards per game, with their 29.5 points per contest 5th best in the league. They rank 5th in 3rd down percentage, converting 46.9% of their opportunities, and have turned the ball over just ten times this season.
Nov 22, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) scores against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY
The Saints are best known for the passing efficiency of quarterback Drew Brees, but in recent years have had one of the NFL's most balanced offensive attacks. New Orleans has the league's 8th ranked rushing game, averaging 125 yards per game on the ground, and their 15 rushing touchdowns are the second-most in the league.
That balance has helped New Orleans to continue to be effective offensively despite injuries to their receiving corps early in the year and a rib injury to Brees that forced him to miss last week and at least the next two games. Taysom Hill stepped in for Brees last week against Atlanta and was not only an effective passer, but helped the team to their most productive rushing output in a game this season with 166 yards.
The Saints take on a 13th ranked Denver defense that allows an average of 346 yards and 26.7 points per game. The Broncos rank 19th against the run, giving up 121.5 yards per contest and 4.3 yards per carry. Two of Denver's opponents, the Chargers and Raiders, have run for over 200 yards against them this season, and three backs have had 100-Yd outings. They have held just two of their ten opponents below 90 yards rushing.
Nov 1, 2020; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Chargers running back Troymaine Pope (35) runs the ball against Denver Broncos inside linebacker Josey Jewell (47) and cornerback Bryce Callahan (29) in the third quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY
The Broncos run defense has been hit hard by injuries in the middle. Defensive linemen Jurrell Casey, Mike Purcell, and Kyle Peko are on injured reserve, DE Shelby Harris is on the Reserve-Covid list, and DT Sylvester Williams is questionable with an elbow injury.
Second-year DT Dre’Mont Jones and DE DeMarcus Walker have been solid run defenders, but can struggle with leverage against technically sound linemen. Edge players Bradley Chubb and Malik Reed are more effective pass rushers than they are against the run.
Inside linebackers Alexander Johnson and Josey Jewell are the team's leading tacklers and have a combined six tackles for loss. Each is outstanding in gap recognition and is physical at the point of attack. Both have athletic limitations, however, and can be beaten to the edge. Their linebacking corps will be more athletic and versatile in the activation of Mark Barron from injured reserve, who will see his first action of the year on Sunday. The Broncos get excellent run support from their safeties, Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson.
Oct 4, 2020; Detroit, Michigan, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs the ball against the Detroit Lions during the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY
New Orleans has perhaps the league's best offensive line, one that dominates the point of attack and bullies opponents in the running game. They have ruled left guard Andrus Peat out of this game with a concussion. Veteran Nick Easton will take his place, while rookie 1st round pick Cesar Ruiz will get the start at right guard.
Over most of the year, this offensive line has not only gotten good push off the ball, but has also done an outstanding job at creating cutback lanes for it’s running backs. Tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk have consistently set the edge and gotten to the second level of defenses quickly to create extra running room downfield.
Second-year C Erik McCoy is having a Pro Bowl year, not only dominating defenders inside but showing remarkable athletic ability to get to the edge on outside runs and screen passes.
Nov 1, 2020; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Latavius Murray (28) runs with the ball during the second half against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints have yet to have a 100-Yd performance from their backs this season, but have one of the most effective 1-2 punches in the league at the position. Alvin Kamara leads the team with 531 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, averaging 4.5 per carry. Kamara is also a huge part of the passing attack, leading the squad with 67 receptions for 648 yards and 4 scores. Latavius Murray is the more physical runner of the two backs and has 427 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns.
Taysom Hill adds another element to the New Orleans rushing attack when he’s in the lineup. Hill got off to a promising start in his first game at quarterback in relief of Drew Brees last Sunday. The best attribute to Hill's versatile skillset has always been his rushing ability. He’s a physical runner with good open field speed and a nose for the goal line and 1st down marker. Hill has 235 rushing yards and 3 scores this season, including two last week against Atlanta. The Saints will also use WR Deonte Harris (6 carries, 51 yards) effectively on end-around plays, hoping to spring his electric open field ability for a big play.
Nov 15, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs against the San Francisco 49ers during the second quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
With the inexperienced Hill at quarterback, it is crucial for the Saints to establish a running game to maintain balance and allow its passing attack to be more effective. I expect Kamara to be more involved in the passing game than he has been over the last few games, but he also has a significant athletic advantage against Denver's linebackers on the edge.
Murray and Hill will be used more than Kamara between the tackles. With the injuries along the Broncos defensive line, running the ball early could wear them down as the game progresses and also slow their pass rush. The Saints had 36 rushes compared to 26 pass attempts last Sunday against the Falcons. If New Orleans can get out to an early lead, something that Denver has struggled with, then we should see a similar run/pass ratio from the Saints on Sunday.
