Saints Limping Running Game Must Be Big Against Rival Atlanta
After inconsistent play (at best), poor coaching, and countless blown opportunities, the New Orleans Saints actually have a chance at a playoff berth heading into the regular season finale. The 8-8 Saints must beat the 7-9 Atlanta Falcons at home and get a Tampa Bay loss at Carolina to win the NFC South. They can also get a wild-card spot with a win and some additional help if the Buccaneers win.
Early season inadequacies have given way to much better play from the offense over the last half of the year. The Saints rank 14th in the NFL in total offense, averaging 22.1 points and 333.3 yards per game. Their passing attack behind QB Derek Carr has especially shown noticeable improvement, as has their red zone efficiency. However, their rushing attack has lacked consistency throughout the season.
Blocking the path to the playoffs is bitter rival Atlanta, who defeated the Saints by a 24-15 score in Week 12. The Falcons enter this game with a defense that ranks ninth in points allowed (20.3/game) and 11th in total yardage (316.2). They are just 28th in turnovers forced (16), but former New Orleans defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen has built a physical unit.
The Falcons capitalized on two New Orleans turnovers deep in the red zone back in Week 12 and held the Saints out of the end zone. New Orleans had nearly 450 yards of total offense in that loss, including 148 on the ground. It was their second highest rushing output of the year against a Falcons defense that's been vulnerable against the run. However, it's likely that the Saints will compete in this game without their leading rusher and one of the league's most dynamic offensive players.
Atlanta Run Defense
Nov 26, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III (3) and LB Kaden Elliss (55) knock Taysom Hill (7) of the New Orleans Saints out of bounds. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
The Falcons rank just 19th against the run by allowing 116 yards per contest. They've held opposing runners to four yards per carry, but have surrendered over 145 yards on the ground in six of their last nine outings.
Along with Nielsen, the Falcons also added former New Orleans defenders LB Kaden Elliss and linemen David Onyemata and Albert Huggins. Onyemata has always been good against the run and adds tons of athleticism to the Atlanta front. Huggins has added big-bodied depth to a rotation that includes impressive rookie Zach Harrison, veteran DE Calais Campbell, and DT Ta'Quon Graham.
Elliss has continued the breakout year he had with the Saints in 2022. He's second on the defense in total tackles (119), which include a team-high 11 for loss. Elliss is joined by second-year inside LB Nate Landman, who has six tackles for loss among his 100 stops. Both are physical and aggressive downhill defenders.
Along the edge, Lorenzo Carter, Bud Dupree, and Arnold Ebiketie are much better pass rushers than against the run. However, all three are capable of getting fast penetration to disrupt off-tackle running plays. That trait has often forced opponents to run inside, which limits exposing Elliss and Landman in space.
New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) fumbles when hit by Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III (3). Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Corners A.J. Terrell, Clark Phillips, Dee Alford, and Jeff Okudah are not heavily involved in run support. Still, each are physical players who don't shy away from contact. The unit has struggled with missed tackles, causing several broken-field runs for extra yardage.
Starting S DeMarco Hellams (concussion) will be sidelined this week. Hard-hitting S Richie Grant will get even more playing time as a result, which affects the pass defense more than against the run. Grant is extremely aggressive in the tackle box, but can take bad angles in pursuit of the ball.
Atlanta has one of the NFL's top safeties in Jessie Bates III. Bates leads the Falcons with 128 tackles and has a terrific combination of instincts and athletic ability. In the Week 12 win over the Saints, Bates singlehandedly stopped New Orleans deep in Atlanta territory twice. First with an interception return for a touchdown, then later by forcing a Taysom Hill fumble.
New Orleans Running Game
New Orleans Saints running back Jamaal Williams (21) runs against the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints average only 99.3 yards per game on the ground, ranking just 21st, with their 3.6 per carry the second worst in the league. New Orleans has been held to under 100 yards on the ground nine times this season and has not had an individual runner rush for as many as 85 yards in a game.
Alvin Kamara leads the Saints with 694 yards rushing and five scores on the ground. He is a nightmare for defenses because of his tremendous balance, elite vision, and rare versatility.
Kamara suffered a high ankle sprain in last week's win over Tampa Bay. It's an injury that's kept him out of practice all week. While the Saints list him as a game-time decision, it seems unlikely that he'll be able to play. If he does, Kamara will probably be severely limited by the ankle.
Veteran RB Jamaal Williams will see a much bigger role. An offseason pickup after over 1,000 yards and an NFL-high 17 touchdowns with Detroit in 2022, Williams had just 280 yards and a 3.1 average in 12 games for the Saints. He's more of a straight ahead power runner than Kamara and is coming off a season-high 58 rushing yards against the Buccaneers.
Indianapolis Colts linebacker Shaquille Leonard (53) tries to tackle New Orleans Saints running back Kendre Miller (25). © Clark Wade/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK
Rookie third-round RB Kendre Miller must also step up in a big way if Kamara is out. Miller has missed the last seven games with a high ankle sprain of his own. When he has played, he's made more of an impact as a receiver. Miller has only 83 rushing yards, but is an explosive player with excellent burst and the ability to run through arm tackles.
Taysom Hill has been the Saints most consistent runner aside from Kamara. Hill has 350 yards and four scores on the ground. However, he's also been limited by a foot injury and has gotten a combined five runs in the last three games. Hill appeared to be completely healthy last week and has both the power and breakaway speed to be successful any defense even when they know what's coming.
Tackle Landon Young, who has been in for injured RT Ryan Ramczyk, will also miss this game with a knee injury. He'll be replaced by veteran Cam Erving, who did reasonably well against the Buccaneers. At left tackle, veteran Andrus Peat has been one of the team’s most pleasant surprises since taking over for a benched Trevor Penning.
New Orleans struggles up front have been especially evident along the interior. Guards Cesar Ruiz, James Hurst, and C Erik McCoy have not gotten enough push for an inside running game to be consistently successful.
Undrafted rookie RB Jordan Mims was elevated from the practice squad for this game. That may not bode well for Kamara's availability. Remember that Miller, who also missed Friday's practice with an illness, has not played in seven weeks because of injury.
What to Watch
Taysom Hill (7) of the New Orleans Saints runs the ball against the Atlanta Falcons. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY
Don't be surprised if the Saints rely on a short, quick passing attack if Kamara is out or greatly limited. Even so, the Saints must still have some success with their running game. This is especially true in the red zone or short yardage situations.
Don't expect New Orleans to rely on any one back. They'll rotate Williams and Miller, even if Kamara does suit up. Hill should get involved early. If the Saints have success with Hill on power runs, that will keep the Atlanta defense off balance and open up other opportunities.
The key to any rushing success will be the offensive line. Atlanta defenders swarm to the ball aggressively, but if the line can open some holes than New Orleans ball carriers could break big plays when they get to the second level.
