Dysfunctional Run Game Holding Seahawks Back Amid Second-Half Slump
RENTON, Wash. - Dropping three of their past four games and losing their grip on one of the NFC's seven playoff spots for the time being, the Seahawks second half struggles have centered around the run game on both sides of the football.
Defensively, opponents have ran the ball down Seattle's throat at will, averaging nearly 210 yards per game on the ground during the recent swoon. The trend of failing to slow down ball carriers of all sizes, shapes, and athletic profiles continued in Sunday's deflating 30-24 loss to the lowly Panthers, as the trio of D'Onta Foreman, Chuba Hubbard, and Raheem Blackshear helped the visitors amass 223 rushing yards against a helpless, undermanned defense.
As a result, quarterback Geno Smith has clearly started to feel the ill effects of shouldering an immense burden on his shoulders trying to carry the Seahawks to victory each week. Though his season numbers remain excellent, he threw two interceptions in a game for the first time on Sunday and could have picked four times, continuing a trend of increasing mistakes from under center likely spurned on by trying to do too much with everything else seemingly crumbling around him.
Undoubtedly, Smith's litany of miscues have played into Seattle's plunge from first place in the NFC West in early November to a pedestrian 7-6 record clinging to playoff hopes by a thread. Per Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points, the veteran quarterback has lost an average of 12 expected points per game due to interceptions, fumbles, and sacks since Week 5, more than any other signal caller in the NFL.
But while Smith's play hasn't been quite as sterling as it was during the first month of the season and he completed a season low 58 percent of his passes on Sunday, he still threw three touchdowns for a second straight week against the Panthers and his team would have gotten blown out of their own building without his efforts. He's playing more than well enough to lead his team to wins and he has been doing so with opponents displaying no respect for the Seahawks punch-less run game, which has been rendered non-existent since early November.
Much as he became agitated about third down conversion questions a year ago, Pete Carroll has grown fatigued from being asked about his team's inability to turn the corner defending the run. But the charismatic coach has to be even more exasperated by the complete and utter disappearance of their once-potent run game offensively. A known advocate for a balanced offense centered around a consistent, capable ground game and ball control, he has only been able to witness opponents execute that formula to perfection against his team over the past month and change.
“We’ve found our way into an inconsistency here of getting started at the line of scrimmage," Carroll told reporters on Monday, bemoaning the fact Seattle only ran the ball seven times in the first half. "We haven’t been able to get popping like we have. We have seen a lot of big plays come out of this run game that kind of have gone away for a while. That’s not what we want to rely on, but they have been good to us, so we have to hit our spots, we have to hit our landmarks right, have to get it right, make sure we are taking advantage of it, and we need more turns, we need to run the ball more."
Just how atrocious and revolting has Seattle's rushing "attack" been during the franchise's month-long nose dive? Whether examining the poor play of a regressing offensive line or a banged up backfield, the numbers are flat out ugly.
Starting with a trip across to pond to play the Buccaneers in Munich, the Seahawks haven't had a running back eclipse 37 rushing yards in any of their past four games. Dynamic rookie Ken Walker III, who didn't suit up on Sunday, rushed for 17, 26, and 36 yards in his previous three games. And, while he did score two touchdowns in a loss to the Raiders, he averaged a paltry 2.93 yards per carry during that span.
As a team, Seattle hasn't rushed for more than 90 yards in a game since a Week 9 road win over Arizona when a dominant second half by Walker and the offensive line led to a 158-yard performance. In three of the past four games, the team hasn't even sniffed 70 rushing yards and twice failed to exceed 50 yards. According to Pro Football Outsiders, they have posted the worse run offense DVOA among 32 teams (48.8 percent), somehow managing to be two whole percent worse than one-win Houston.
Who deserves the bulk of the blame for the Seahawks failure to untrack their run game? Though it would be easy to point fingers at a few individual players slogging through a slump or cite a litany of injuries in the backfield, everyone from the offensive line to the running backs to the coaching staff deserves a piece of the accountability pie.
Up front, Seattle was expected to endure some struggles opening up holes in the run game with rookie tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, who each heralded from pass-heavy offenses in college, starting on day one. The unit also had a new starting center in Austin Blythe whose lack of size at under 300 pounds created questions about how he would hold up in the run game as well.
During a four-game win streak in October and November that catapulted the Seahawks to a 6-3 record, the offensive line looked to be trending in the right direction. Aside from being held to 87 rushing yards by the Giants in a Week 8 win, they rushed for at least 136 yards in each of the other three victories, including racking up 213 yards on the ground to punish the Chargers on the road.
But since Week 10, Cross and Lucas appear to have hit a rookie wall and have seen their play level off rather than continue to gradually improve as they gain experience. According to Pro Football Focus, Lucas ranks 34th (62.8) and Cross ranks 39th (60.8) in run blocking grade among 74 qualified tackles over the past five weeks. In the interior, Damien Lewis and Gabe Jackson rank 42nd (57.4) and 52nd (53.2) in run blocking grade out of 75 qualified guards and Blythe ranks an abysmal 33rd out of 34 centers with a 42.9 grade.
Not surprisingly, even with their mid-season surge spearheaded by Walker's explosive playmaking ability, the Seahawks rank 24th overall in PFF's team run blocking grade (56.3) for the season. ESPN's Run Block Win Rate also ranks them 24th at 70 percent as a unit in 2022.
Though the line deserves plenty of blame for the team's dreadful rushing numbers, running backs shouldn't be exempt from criticism either. As spectacular as Walker has been ripping off long runs and putting on a show making defenders miss to turn surefire tackles for loss into short gains, he hasn't been near as effective at creating his own yardage as the season has progressed. Per PFF, he has only generated four missed tackles in his past three games and his 63 yards created after contact ranks dead last among 45 qualified players with at least 26 carries since Week 10.
Still learning to balance patience with decisiveness, Walker has left yardage on the field at times trying to get too cute looking to hit a home run rather than stick a cleat in the turf and get downhill to pick up a handful of yards.
With that said, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, Walker still ranks a respectable 12th among qualified backs for rushing yards over expected per carry at 0.75 yards. Correlating that success with PFF grades, as evidenced by Ben Baldwin of rbsdm.com, he's one of only four backs in the top 12 for yards over expected per carry running behind a bottom-third offensive line.
For the season, when accounting for Rashaad Penny's hot start before suffering a fractured ankle and landing on injured reserve in October, Seattle's running back group scores favorably in PFF's grade system ranking 12th overall (83.2). At the end of the day, the team still has top-tier talent at the position that has generally performed well despite shoddy blocking in front of them.
With four games remaining and plenty left to play for, the Seahawks face a difficult task trying to resurrect their dormant ground game. The offensive line hasn't had any significant injuries and they won't be able to add any upgrades to the group for the stretch run. They will have to keep fingers crossed the unit's play reverts back to form from their four-game winning streak and the group does a better job setting the tone at the line of scrimmage, starting with Blythe in the middle.
Considering how poorly the line has played as of late and the series of opponents up next on the docket, including a stout 49ers front on Thursday night, that will be easier said than done.
If there's a reason for optimism that Seattle can turn the tide, Walker has a chance to be available to play against San Francisco on Thursday night. His presence alone bolsters the chances of the ground game waking up due to his elite speed, quickness, and underrated power. In the event they somehow make the playoffs, while it may be a long shot and Carroll didn't seem optimistic about the possibility, Penny could potentially be ready to inject life into the ground game as well.
Either way, for the Seahawks to have any chance to rectifying a season that has gotten away from them and advance to the postseason, they will have to procure a reliable complementary run game in some way, shape, or form. If they can achieve that goal, Smith's performance should improve by default and the defense shouldn't find itself on the field getting bludgeoned by opposing run games as often either, which would bode well for their chances at righting the ship.
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