Seahawks Draft: Four Trade Scenarios to Move Up For Anthony Richardson, Other QB
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Closing in on four weeks until the 2023 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks have been busy scouting players on the road with coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider specifically flying cross country to attend multiple pro days and evaluate the top four quarterback prospects in this year's class.
Following the decision to re-sign veteran signal caller Geno Smith to a three-year deal earlier this month, Seattle's apparent - and not so secret - interest in potentially using a top-five pick on a quarterback may be a bit perplexing on the surface. And yet, given the fact the franchise hasn't picked this high since 2009, which pre-dated Schneider and Carroll's arrival, it's a rare opportunity to land a future franchise signal caller.
Understandably doing their due diligence on each prospect, Florida's Anthony Richardson has been the player most connected to the Seahawks to this point, as Schneider met with his agent at his pro day in Gainesville on Thursday. Prior to the workout, he also met with Carroll and Schneider at the combine, telling Stephen Holder of ESPN that visit stood out amongst the rest.
Clearly enamored by the uber-athletic, cannon-armed quarterback, multiple reports coming from Vic Tafur of The Athletic and Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network surfaced on Thursday speculating on the franchise's intention to potentially trade up for Richardson.
Looking at the teams in front of Seattle, who holds the fifth overall pick courtesy of the Russell Wilson trade with Denver, trading up may be the only way Schneider gets his hands on the quarterback he covets. Along with Carolina now holding the top selection after trading up with Chicago, Houston and Indianapolis also need a new signal caller, making Arizona the only outlier in the first four picks not in the market for one.
Being an NFC West rival, the Cardinals may not necessarily be enthused by the idea of trading with the Seahawks and helping them land Richardson, who they would be facing twice a year for the next decade or more if his selection pans out. At the same time, however, they are in the midst of a rebuild and need all the picks they can get to help replenish their roster, which their divisional rivals could certainly provide with 10 total picks this year.
What would it cost for Schneider and company to slide up two spots and leapfrog the Colts for Richardson or another quarterback prospect? Here are three possibilities based off of trade value charts from DraftTek, a recent historical comparison, and several different draft weekend scenarios.
Option 1: Seahawks trade pick No. 5, No. 37 to Cardinals for pick No. 3
Though far from fool's proof, NFL teams rely on trade value charts to help come up with reasonable offers for moving up and down the board. In the past, the famous Jimmy Johnson Model, named after the Super Bowl-winning coach of the Cowboys, reigned supreme. But in recent years, teams have transitioned to another model, which the Rich Hill Model has been built to more accurately portray based on recent draft weekend trades.
Using the old reliable Jimmy Johnson model, Arizona's No. 3 overall pick would be worth 2,200 points and Seattle's No. 5 selection two picks later would be worth 1,700, creating a 500 point differential. The Seahawks could cover that gap by including the first of their two second round picks, which would be worth 530 points.
In the Rich Hill model, the Cardinals' selection would be worth 46 more points than the Seahawks, whose 37th pick would actually be worth way more than that differential at 162 points. In either instance, simply adding the early second round pick would seem to be more than fair compensation...
Option 2: Seahawks trade pick No. 5, No. 37, and No. 123 to Cardinals for pick No. 3
However, historical context suggests Seattle will have to pony up a bit more to sweeten the deal if it wants to move up two spots. That price tag could go up by default strictly because of dealing with a division rival.
While there have been few comparable trades in the past 10 drafts, the 49ers traded down from No. 2 to No. 3 overall in 2017, acquiring a third and fourth round pick from the Bears along with a 2018 third round pick. Since the Seahawks are moving up two spots in this scenario, the price will be expected to be a bit higher and adding another fourth round pick to the equation in addition with to the first and second round picks could be the cherry on top needed to swing the deal into motion.
Option 3: Seahawks trade pick No. 5, No. 37, and 2024 second round pick to Cardinals for pick No. 3
If the Seahawks are the only team actively trying to move up and the Cardinals are motivated to acquire additional picks, the two sides may be able to agree to either one of the aforementioned options. But with this being a strong quarterback class and several other teams potentially interested in sliding up to draft one, a bidding war may commence.
This means Schneider may have to be ready to lean more heavily on his draft capital surplus to facilitate a deal. For example, if the Raiders, who hold pick No. 7, offer a first, second, and third round pick to move up four spots, the Seahawks will have to up the ante to win the auction. To beat out the offer from another suitor, he could reach into his future holdings and offer a second-round pick in 2024, which would be worth the equivalent of a current third round pick. With higher first and second round picks, that should, at least in theory, be a better compensation package.
Option 4: Seahawks trade pick No. 5, No. 20 to Cardinals for pick No. 3
In reality, there may be more than one additional suitor jockeying for position to acquire Arizona's top-three selection. Scanning the top 11 picks, Detroit and Tennessee could be teams to keep an eye on in regard to jumping up the board for a quarterback of the future. If one of those teams comes to the table with a future first round pick attached to the deal, things suddenly get interesting.
Depending how badly Schneider wants Richardson or another quarterback prospect, he may have to put all of his chips onto the table. Offering both first round picks to move up only two spots would be deemed a significant overpay based on either trade chart model, but sliding up in the top five can be extremely costly and if he truly believes he has a chance to draft a future star under center, that price may be well worth the lucrative investment.
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