Seahawks Analysis: Previewing Free Agency With 5 Essential Questions
Barely a month since confetti fell from the sky at the conclusion of Super Bowl LVII, the NFL will launch a new league year with the legal tampering period opening on Monday with teams able to begin negotiations with free agents.
While deals can't officially be signed until 1 PM PST on Wednesday, sparks will fly as teams jockey for position to sign players over the next 48 hours. Since general manager John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll took over in 2010, the Seahawks have typically sat idle out the gate, waiting for price tags to drop before beginning to spend money to improve the team.
Will that be the case again this year? After Seattle announced Geno Smith had signed a new three-year deal last week, Carroll said that while the team didn't have a ton of flexibility and needed to be "judicious" with decision making in free agency, they have enough wiggle room to be somewhat active looking for veterans who can fortify the roster around the Pro Bowl quarterback.
"We're gonna be wise about it and make really good decisions that are going to fit us," Carroll said in an interview with Seattle Sports 710. "We're deep, deep into that and I can't talk about any of it, but we're deep into it right now and we've been working on this for weeks, so it's an exciting time that's coming up."
With the festivities set to kick off later on Monday, here's a deep dive into five essential questions to help preview free agency for the Seahawks.
1. How much salary cap space do the Seahawks have to work with?
Always the most pressing topic for fans when the new league year begins, Seattle has a bit more flexibility than most teams with $20 million in available cap space, which ranks 12th among NFL teams according to OverTheCap.com. This includes Smith's new contract with a team-friendly $10.4 million cap hit in 2023 as well as the recent release of guard Gabe Jackson, which created $6.5 million in cap relief. It's a far cry from where things stood last year when the team had a $26 million dead cap hit from Russell Wilson's departure.
Unfortunately, that number doesn't paint a fully accurate picture in regards to the Seahawks actual cap space that can be used in free agency. When accounting for draft picks and the first 51 players on the roster, the team has under $10 million in effective cap space, which doesn't create much room to operate signing internal or outside free agents without other moves.
2. Could other cap casualties occur before the madness begins?
While Jackson's inevitable release has been the only notable subtraction made by the Seahawks thus far, it's probable at least one more significant move will be made to add extra flexibility before Wednesday. After hinting at a possible departure on his social media accounts on Friday, veteran defensive tackle Shelby Harris could be the next player to receive a pink slip to open up nearly $9 million in additional cap room. A least minute extension could also achieve the same means while keeping him on the roster, but that seems unlikely.
Away from Harris, fellow defensive tackles Quinton Jefferson and Al Woods would be the other two candidates to be cut, though signs don't point to either player being jettisoned at this stage. If Schneider wants to have more money to play with, he could also consider extensions for linebacker Uchenna Nwosu and tight end Noah Fant, who will each be entering the final year of their respective contracts. As a last resort, contract restructures could be executed for safety Quandre Diggs or receiver Tyler Lockett among others, but Seattle has typically avoided kicking money down the road.
3. Which of Seattle’s own free agents will be prioritized?
As Schneider and Carroll mentioned in the aftermath of Smith receiving his new contract, that major domino falling before the start of free agency takes immense pressure off the front office and gives the organization a far more concrete idea how much money they will have to spend starting this week. While they will be looking closely at all options available on the market, including vets cut by other teams, a handful of the Seahawks own pending free agents should be at the top of the list to re-sign.
With Jordyn Brooks in the early stages of recovering from a torn ACL, retaining Cody Barton may be critical for the Seahawks rolling into 2023.
© Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Headlining that group, defensive tackle Poona Ford and linebacker Cody Barton started for Seattle last year and considering the potential turnover at both positions, losing either player would create even bigger holes to fill on the roster. In Barton's case, with fellow starter Jordyn Brooks potentially out for a chunk of next season recovering from a torn ACL, the team would be risking the possibility of having two brand new starters in Week 1. As for Ford, while scheme fit remains a notable concern, he started 64 games over the past five seasons and his presence up front would be even more important if Harris is out of the picture.
Seattle will also have to make a decision on restricted free agent safety Ryan Neal, who would become an unrestricted free agent if the the team does not place a qualifying tender on him by 1 PM PT on Wednesday. The versatile defender played at an All-Pro level replacing an injured Jamal Adams and a second round tender worth a hair over $4 million wouldn't be overly expensive to retain his services. However, with $32 million already spent on safeties, that may be too pricey for the team to afford.
As for the rest of the Seahawks free agent crop, players such as running back Rashaad Penny and receiver Marquise Goodwin could eventually return. But don't expect the team to rush to re-sign them with both players coming off of injuries and playing at positions with established stars in Ken Walker III, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett. They could be candidates to bring back later in free agency or even after the NFL draft.
4. How active will the Seahawks be the opening days of free agency?
Putting it bluntly, if the past 10 years or so are any indication, Seattle fans who hope to see fireworks spending big bucks on marquee players once the league year opens will be incredibly disappointed. While some will dream of a star player such Eagles defensive tackle Javon Hargrave or Bills linebacker Tremaine Edmunds coming to town to plug a major void on defense, Schneider has never been one to splurge in free agency and the lack of spending power makes such a fantasy even less likely to be fulfilled in 2023.
With that said, the Seahawks consistently have been active executing second-tier signings, including adding Nwosu on a two-year deal only a few days into the festivities last offseason. After seeing that deal turn into one of the biggest steals in the entire league last offseason, Schneider may try to replicate that success looking for younger players in the prime of their career who won't break the bank. Among the names who could check off that box, Houston rusher Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and Arizona defensive lineman Zach Allen might be realistic possibilities.
After a year away in Los Angeles, John Schneider and Pete Carroll have spoken to Bobby Wagner, though it remains unclear if a return to Seattle is in the cards.
Schneider also hinted in recent interviews Seattle will be monitoring roster cuts from other teams looking for bargain bin deals. Such signings would not count against the NFL's compensatory formula per league rules. This could include a reunion with linebacker Bobby Wagner only a year after the team cut him, though other viable veterans will be available to help replace Brooks in the short term, including former Vikings standout Eric Kendricks and Lavonte David. Centers such as Ryan Kelly may also hit the market as potential targets to replace retiring starter Austin Blythe.
5. What positions will Seattle place emphasis on in free agency?
Holding 10 selections in the 2023 NFL Draft, including four picks in the first 52 and a top-five selection coming from last year's blockbuster Wilson trade to the Broncos, the Seahawks will have a prime opportunity to address many of their needs with incoming rookies. Depending how the first four picks unfold, Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter, or Texas Tech defensive end Tyree Wilson could all be on the table at No. 5 overall to add a blue chip talent to the defense.
However, Seattle has preferred veterans at center and defensive tackle over the years and with both position groups featuring plenty of experienced talent on the free agent market, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Schneider attack those positions over the next week or so. Along with Kelly reportedly being a cap casualty candidate in Indianapolis, Minnesota's Garrett Bradbury, Carolina's Bradley Bozeman, and former Seahawk Ethan Pocic will all be available to sign as well in a deep center group. At defensive tackle, Allen and ex-Washington standout Greg Gaines would be potentially affordable options under 30 who fit a 3-4 scheme well.
As aforementioned, linebacker stands out as another substantial area of need for the Seahawks with Brooks status for next year up in the air and Barton testing the free agent waters himself. Wagner would seem like the best natural fit after earning Second-Team All-Pro honors in his lone season with the Rams, but he will be 33 in July and could be too expensive for the team's budget. Other options in a talented free agent class could include Drue Tranquill of the Chargers, Alex Singleton of the Broncos, and Bobby Okereke of the Colts.
Potential sleeper positions to watch for Seattle would include running back, where the team could lose Penny and Travis Homer, as well as safety reinforcements if Neal isn't re-signed. Receiver could also be a position of interest to take a flier on veteran to compete against Dee Eskridge and/or an incoming rookie behind Metcalf and Lockett.
Want the latest in breaking news and insider information on the Seahawks? Click Here to subscribe to AllSeahawks.com's Newsletter.
Follow All Seahawks.com on Twitter and Facebook
Make sure to subscribe to our daily podcast @lockedonseahawks today! Click here To Listen.
Want even more Seattle Seahawks news? Check out the SI.com team page here.
