First-Place Seattle Seahawks Need Better Play From Geno Smith to Realize Potential
RENTON, Wash. - In many ways, the Seattle Seahawks have picked up where they left off last year offensively to fuel a 5-2 start, using a talented passing game to jump into first place in the NFC West eight weeks into the 2023 season.
Though they rank just outside the top-10 in points per game, Seattle currently is averaging 24 points per contest, on par with their production from a year ago despite numerous injuries along the offensive line. They also sit fifth in points per play and sixth in first downs per play in the NFL, slightly improved from their rankings in both categories compared to 2022.
But while the Seahawks still have a quality offense, they have shown plenty of warts in the first seven games and in some regards, the unit has underachieved to this point. Along with ranking 23rd in third down conversion rate, even with a slight improvement compared to last season, they also sit 19th in red zone touchdown rate, settling for field goals and missing out on points completely far too often.
At the root of Seattle's offensive inconsistency, while quarterback Geno Smith has certainly had his moments of brilliance this year and still has a quality overall stat line, the veteran signal caller would be the first to tell you he hasn't played up to his own lofty expectations thus far.
Named Comeback Player of the Year and earning his first Pro Bowl selection, coming off a three-year extension signed in March, Smith ranks in the top 15 quarterbacks in completion rate (67.6 percent), yards per attempt (7.3), and passer rating (91.1). Per Pro Football Focus, he has remained one of the better deep ball passers in the NFL as well, ranking in the top 10 in passer rating, big-time throws, and yards per attempt on throws traveling at least 20 yards through the air.
Smith has also been one of the best passers in the league at connecting on difficult throws, as evidenced by his five percent completion rate above expectation according to NFL Next Gen Stats, which ranks third among qualified quarterbacks.
But compared to his breakout campaign after taking over for Russell Wilson last season, Smith has taken a clear step backward. After finishing fourth in the league in passing touchdowns, he only has thrown nine in Seattle's first seven games compared to six interceptions. As a result, his interception rate has jumped from 1.9 percent in 2022 to 2.7 percent so far this season, and many of his picks have come at inopportune times.
After leading three consecutive scoring drives to open Sunday's win over the Browns, the Seahawks went into a major lull offensively for two-plus quarters, failing to score any points on their next seven drives. Struggling with accuracy and making a few ill-advised decisions, Smith completed only nine out of 20 pass attempts during those possessions and threw a pair of interceptions, including a costly pick by cornerback Martin Emerson late in the first half in Browns territory that may have wiped points off the scoreboard.
"I was just throwing it in rhythm," Smith said after the game. "Guy did a good job undercutting it and he made a play. I can get the ball out faster and maybe lead them more to the sideline."
Later in the third quarter, Smith tried to fire a third down pass to tight end Noah Fant in the middle of the field, only for defensive tackle Maurice Hurst to tip the pass in the air dropping back into zone and come down with a remarkable interception. Cleveland turned the turnover into a field goal to knot the game up at 17 apiece. He also nearly threw a pick six moments afterward when receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba stopped short on his out-breaking route.
When asked to assess Smith's performance on Monday, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll praised his quarterback for battling through adversity to throw the game-winning touchdown to Smith-Njigba in the final minute of regulation while also acknowledging his mistake on Hurst's interception and the lack of explosive plays in the middle quarters grounding the offense against a great Browns squad.
“He did great at the beginning and the end and in the middle, we weren’t as clean. What we didn’t do is we didn’t get the explosive plays with the field positions that we took advantage of in the first quarter, and we took advantage of in the winning drive. When you play a really good defense, it’s hard to go the whole field. I bet they haven’t had a handful of times where somebody has gone 80 or 75 yards on them. We did that," Carroll said. "I think Geno played winning football. He got it done. He had a mishap on a play the guy tips the ball up he didn’t see it right. Stuff is going to happen. We need to do better around him. I love that he won the game.”
From Smith's perspective, if not for the two throws that resulted in turnovers and the near-pick where he and Smith-Njigba weren't on the same page, he felt he played a really strong game against the Browns. In spurts, he did play like a top-five quarterback against one of the NFL's best defenses, including starting off eight for 12 for 136 yards and a touchdown on the first three drives and going four for five for 52 yards and a score to end the game.
While Geno Smith has led two game-winning drives and still has posted decent production, his touchdowns and completion percentage are down while turnovers have ticked upward.
© Steven Bisig, USA TODAY
But as has been the case all season so far, Smith hasn't been able to string together four quarters without making crucial mistakes. In a Week 6 defeat to the Bengals, he threw a pair of bad interceptions, including telegraphing a throw to Smith-Njigba in the red zone that took at least a field goal off the board. His other interception set up Cincinnati for a field goal that put the home team up four, which proved to be huge when Seattle couldn't punch the ball in on its final possession.
Even in a win over Arizona in Week 7, Smith got picked in the red zone again, this time forcing a throw while under duress to Jake Bobo that came up well short of the intended target in the end zone. In that instance as well as Sunday against Cleveland, Seattle found a way to scratch out a win.
"It's hard. It's the NFL," Smith said. "It's never going to be easy. One or two mistakes can cost you a game, but the reality is we figured it out today and got it done.
Right now, if there's a silver lining, the Seahawks have put enough points on the board to win five of their first seven games and position themselves to make the playoffs for a second straight season. Constant musical chairs along the offensive line also has to be accounted for as part of the reason for Smith's inconsistent play and the up-and-down performance of their ground game.
But for Seattle to compete for an NFC West title and potentially make a deep playoff run in January, Smith must elevate his performance back to where it was most of the 2022 season, starting with cutting down on turnovers. Per Pro Football Focus, his 4.1 percent turnover-worthy throw percentage ranks 27th out of 31 qualified quarterbacks, and he has to find a way to curb his aggressiveness throwing into tight windows a bit and make smarter decisions with the football.
This is especially true in the red zone, where Smith has thrown the two aforementioned picks and completed just 42.5 percent of his pass attempts. According to Pro Football Reference, only Kirk Cousins has thrown more interceptions inside the opposing 20, while Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr are the only other signal callers with at least 29 red zone passing attempts who have completed a lower percentage of throws.
From a passing depth standpoint, the intermediate passing game stands out as Smith's most glaring area for improvement. Based on PFF charting, he has thrown three interceptions and posted a league-worst 13.5 percent turnover worthy play rate on throws between 10 and 19 yards, and these struggles aren't a new phenomenon. Six of his 11 interceptions in 2022 came on these throws and while he did throw 13 touchdowns, he had the worst turnover worthy play rate in the league.
With weapons such as Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Smith-Njigba, and Fant around him and an offensive line that continues to play well despite injuries, Smith remains confident the Seahawks can be one of the premier teams in the NFC and based on record, they already are on the cusp of being in that discussion. To fulfill their goals of competing for a division title, however, the offense needs him to be better than good or adequate, putting the onus on him to play smarter, cleaner football moving forward.
"That's something that I have been trying to be better at, not having those mistakes because those can hurt us. I feel like our team is such a scrappy team. We find ways to win no matter what. I feel like if I can play up to my capabilities, up to my standard, who knows where we can be. We're one of the best teams in football if we play right."
