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Analysis: Why Emergence of Marquise Blair Could Make Biggest Difference for Seahawks' Defense

Last season, the Seahawks bucked a league-wide trend by playing more base defense than any other team by a wide margin. But thanks to Blair proving he's capable of excelling in the slot, analyst Matty Brown envisions Ken Norton Jr.'s defense being able to play a much larger variety of coverages in 2020, which should help the unit bounce back.
Matty F. Brown|
Analysis: Why Emergence of Marquise Blair Could Make Biggest Difference for Seahawks' Defense
Analysis: Why Emergence of Marquise Blair Could Make Biggest Difference for Seahawks' Defense

K.J. Wright’s Thursday press conference made a lot of people happy. We all know the 2019 figures: in an NFL where defenses opted to play more dime (20.9 percent) than base personnel (18 percent), the Seattle Seahawks were in their 4-3 base personnel for 67 percent of the time per Sports Info Solutions. The defense stunk, finishing 22nd in points surrendered. Fans clamored for more nickel defense.

We’ll get to how much 4-3 is to blame for the porous displays. First, let's look at how Wright provided hope that the 4-3-heavy, zigging-while-zagging is over in 2020. The 10th year linebacker was asked whether fans were likely to see a similar percentage of base defense in Week 1 against Atlanta. Wright smiled and shook his head.

"Can't give away the gameplan but I don't think that's gonna be the case with the emergence of Marquise,” Wright answered. “We gotta have Marquise on the field this year.”

There is a chance that the seasoned veteran is engaging in some gamesmanship. However, Wright, now 31 years old, has been a reliable source of schematic change in Seattle in years past. For instance, he told Mina Kimes in July 2019 that the Seahawks would run more two-high defense and blitz more. Both of these statements proved to be true.

Last season, Seattle’s nickel options were grim. After Justin Coleman left for Detroit, becoming the highest-paid nickel in the NFL, the Seahawks were left with very little at the slot corner position. Getting five defensive backs on the field was tricky.

Akeem King, who’d played some bandit back and matched up inside with tight ends, didn’t have the short area quickness to stick and lost the competition in camp. Ugo Amadi, initially drafted as a free safety, looked lost in Week 1 against the Bengals and just as hopeless in the season-ending playoff defeat to the Packers. Then came veteran Jamar Taylor, who proved that it was no coincidence he was still unsigned after the first game of the regular season.

Back in February at the 2020 NFL Combine, John Schneider declared a strong intention to upgrade the position, telling reporters, “You’ve got to look at the nickel position like a starter, right? We need to keep preparing along the way.”

Seattle, though, did not add noteworthy slot cornerback depth in the offseason, with free agents signing elsewhere and the draft passing with no genuine nickel added. We were nearing panic stations. Yet then the moment finally arrived. It was from an unexpected source. After the Seahawks traded for Jamal Adams, Blair was able to move into the slot. The 2018 second round pick has been doing well there over the past month as one of the stars of training camp.

It’s not just Wright who has praised the Blair and spoken of him as starter material. After the second preseason mock game, in which Blair had two interceptions, left cornerback Shaquill Griffin observed that Blair was “comfortable,” “showing up and making the plays that we expect him to make,” and “doing an amazing job.”

Carroll had August 26 compliments for Blair too, enthusing about how the second-year pro makes the defense more athletic.

“Marquise has been a noticeable change, I mean look at the day he had today, but he’s been a noticeable change playing the nickel spot,” Carroll said. “So we really feel like we’ve boosted this group.”

Two days later, defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr gave a seriously detailed report on Blair’s progress and fit in Seattle’s defense.

“He’s been the, I wouldn’t say surprise because we drafted him pretty high, we scouted him in college, we knew what he was capable of. But now that he’s been able to understand his role, put him in a position to really master what that position, nickel, really takes as far as technique, and the ability to rush, the ability to cover in man coverage. He makes us a really good man coverage team because he’s able to, with his length and his strength, and he’s able to cover really tight and sticky. And he’s a good rusher. So really happy with his development. He makes us better. Jamal makes us better but when you have a really good nickel who can cover that slot, he really makes us a good man coverage team and a good blitzing team from that nickel spot. So watching his emergence and development is gonna really make us a better team in the secondary, along with Quandre [Diggs] and Jamal [Adams]. All those guys working together is really good for the Seahawks.”
“But for Marquise, I think all of us are just getting the chance to see him play a whole lot of football. And I think it’s important for us to see - most guys can play really good in zones, it’s kinda easy to fall back inside of 2, outside of 3, buzz to the flat. But when a guy his size, you know he’s nearly 200 pounds, I think it’s 199 200, with his length, if he can cover slots really tight, that makes us really good at our man coverage and that really helps us out. So I think the main thing is his ability to cover in man. And the main thing is he’s a really good blitzer, this guy comes off, he blitzes hard. As you saw, he tackles really well. I mean all around. Man coverage, blitzing, tackling, showing up every day - he’s giving us everything and we’re very, very happy with his development. He’s gonna make us a better team.”

Blair tested quicker, faster, and more agile than Amadi. He is also taller and bigger. We saw tantalizing glimpses of Blair’s slot coverage ability last year, in hot coverage and man coverage assignments mainly on tight ends. When Norton speaks about being “tight and sticky,” it’s Blair’s footwork and transitional quickness that shine.

The unknown question mark from our perspective is how well Blair can cover from a press alignment. We haven’t seen him in this technique, not even in college. Furthermore, Blair has just 30 3/4-inch arms - Amadi’s are 31 ¾”. It’s possible that the Seahawks don’t ask Blair to press cover that often. He makes up for this with the safety background he has and the disguise elements that contains. On one play, Adams may blitz with Blair slot matching behind it. The next play could see the opposite scenario.

The question asked of Wright was specifically talking about the Falcons matchup on Sunday. There are three clues that suggest this nickel approach may be a more opponent-specific deal. Firstly, Gregg Bell of The News Tribune wrote that Jordyn Brooks will replace K.J. Wright at WILL linebacker when Marquise Blair gets on the field. Brooks has the skill set to be a dominant player in the NFL.

However, this move suggests that nickel is still very much a passing-down, sub-package approach that is a good bit-part role for Brooks to see action despite his path to further playing time being blocked by Wright. (Wright said in his presser that he was told his recovery from shoulder surgery would see him back in action around mid-September to mid-October, which must have been a huge influence on the front office’s selection of Brooks)

Secondly, without getting too galaxy brain and trying to avoid being called a “psychopath,” the live-streamed offseason practices revealed interesting personnel allocation in nickel. When Blair was on the field, the SAM linebacker - Bruce Irvin or Shaquem Griffin - kicked down to defensive end opposite Benson Mayowa. In Griffin’s case in particular, this suggests a very pass-guided mindset when it comes to nickel. You do not want these players setting an EDGE in the run fit unless it is 3rd and long.

Finally, the Falcons’ offense calls for nickel from a game-planning perspective. According to SharpFootballStats, the 2019 Atlanta offense was in nickel-worthy personnel (three or more wide receivers) for 67 percent of their offensive snaps. They went 61 percent for 11 personnel, four percent for 10 personnel, one percent for 20 personnel, and one percent for 01 personnel.

Moreover, when the Seahawks met the Falcons last year, Matt Schaub threw for 460 yards. Seattle couldn’t trust their nickel coverage to be more aggressive and a soft zone defense got shredded as Atlanta clawed their way back into the game. What initially looked like a blowout ended up being close, with the Seahawks surviving to win 27-20. This time round, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst, and complimentary pass-catching pieces necessitates better nickel defense.

The statistics of 4-3 last year surprised the smartest analytics minds. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders:

Brady Henderson of ESPN:

These numbers are surprising but somewhat misleading - note also that the Seahawks weren’t exactly "good" in base either; they were just atrocious in nickel. Rightly or wrongly, the majority of NFL offensive play callers are only really "going for it" on third down. Seattle was able to somewhat control the gains by sitting in zone defense. One example of planned withdrawal was Seattle encouraging the check down in base with 3-deep, 3-under fire zones.

At a certain point, though, the managed retreat of 4-3 no longer becomes an option. On passing downs, you cannot sit in base against three receivers and rely on surprises, like shocking an opponent with a man coverage change-up that puts the free safety in man on the slot receiver.

Meanwhile, you are unable to ask your third linebacker, the SAM, to play man coverage on anyone other than a tight end - irrespective of whether he runs a 40 in 4.4 seconds or not. In the 11 personnel-dominant NFL, the disguise elements of having three linebackers out there on the field are severely limited. Worse, offenses are always looking for the mismatch and they have become extremely effective at attacking it.

As a defense, you are forced in to playing a lot of zone coverage if you are in base personnel. In 2017, enjoying rookie Shaquill Griffin as a third corner, the Seahawks ran 41.1 percent man coverage as charted by Pro Football Focus. This was fifth-most in the league. In 2019, the base-heavy Seattle defense played man coverage just 18 percent of the time (SIS). With predictability comes death. You have to get off the field, force an incompletion or an interception - that’s tough to do when base only gives you so many coverage options and more difficult match-ups against three or more receivers.

2019 was a catch-22 situation for the Seahawks where they were fine until a passing down, when an offense was really going after them. They couldn’t play man coverage against three or more receivers well from base - or even attempt to realistically disguise base as man.

However, when in the more disguisable and coverage versatile nickel, Seattle didn’t have the slot corner talent to be able to play man coverage successfully either. Amadi’s lack of agility is always going to be an issue if he is asked to play inside. Taylor looked completely washed. This issue was disgustingly exemplified in the Green Bay playoff debacle, where the nickel defense collapsed and Seattle couldn’t get off the field on nine of 14 third downs. It was a crushing conclusion to a frustrating season.

We should attach significant blame to the pass rush and Norton too. Yet 2020’s defensive line is, at best, at a similar overall talent level to 2019. Norton is still the defensive coordinator. The difference, hopefully, will be Blair and Seattle’s ability to play a variety of nickel coverages, man included.

For Carroll, his approach does seem to be about getting his best 11 on the field as much as possible. For instance, in 2016 when he had Marcus Burley, Seattle was in Nickel personnel 68 percent of the time as logged by ESPN and Sheil Kapadia. In 2017, Justin Coleman played 59.6 percent of the snaps per FO. 2018 saw Coleman get 67.8 percent of the defensive action. (Note Coleman played in dime packages too)

While we wait to see if nickel is more in 2020 than an Atlanta-planned thing or just pesky veteran mind-games, it’s nice that Blair has established a role for himself on this defense. That was his key goal heading into the offseason. He brings playmaking speed all over the field and adds to the fearsome Seahawks secondary. 

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Matty F. Brown
MATTY F. BROWN

Based and born in the UK, Matty has coached football for over 5 years, including stints as a scout, defensive coordinator, and Wide Receiver/DB Coach. Asides from an Xs and Os obsession, he enjoys: other sports; eating out; plus following Newcastle United. He graduated from the University of East Anglia in 2018 with a BA in Modern History.

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