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How Seahawks Can Still Earn NFC's Top Seed in Postseason

The chances of Seattle earning a first-round bye next month remain slim, but Philadelphia's upset win over New Orleans has at least put Pete Carroll's team back in the discussion with only one loss separating the two teams in the standings and three games left to play.
How Seahawks Can Still Earn NFC's Top Seed in Postseason
How Seahawks Can Still Earn NFC's Top Seed in Postseason

Prior to kickoff against the Jets on Sunday, the Seahawks hopes for earning a first-round bye as the NFC's top seed seemed all but finished.

After laying an egg in a 17-12 home loss to the Giants one week earlier, coach Pete Carroll's team sat two games behind the Saints in the loss column and just four games left to play. The Packers also were a game ahead of them, complicating matters with tiebreakers in the event all three teams finished with the same record.

But as the Seahawks took care of business against an underwhelming New York Jets team in a 40-3 thrashing at Lumen Field, they also received unexpected help from the NFC East. Despite the fact rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts was making his first career start, the Eagles stunned the Saints in a 24-21 upset in Philadelphia, dropping the latter to 10-3 on the season.

This development has certainly altered the playoff picture in the NFC, as the Saints are no longer a shoo-in to earn the top seed, especially with starting quarterback Drew Brees still recovering from broken ribs. The Packers, who won a head-to-head matchup between the two teams earlier this season, have now vaulted into the NFC's top spot, while the Seahawks and Rams both remain just one game behind them.'

Unlike a week ago, at least to an extent, Seattle controls its own destiny in regard to the quest for the top seed. A critical must-win Week 16 matchup with Los Angeles looms, sandwiched between tough road games against Washington and San Francisco. To have any shot at a bye, they must win out to move to 12-4.

But simply going 3-0 down the stretch won't guarantee anything aside from an NFC West title and a home playoff game in the wild card round. To jump into the top spot, they're going to need some help - and yes, a little bit of luck.

In the event all three teams all end up with the same record atop the NFC standings, the Seahawks would currently be at a disadvantage. The Saints and Packers weren't on their schedule, preventing them from having a chance at winning a head-to-head matchup against either team. The next tiebreaker is conference record, and unfortunately, their recent loss to the Giants gives them three conference losses. The Packers and Saints only have two apiece.

Looking at each team's remaining schedules, both Green Bay and New Orleans have upcoming dates with Carolina, who has floundered to a 4-9 record. The Packers will wrap up the season traveling to Chicago to face the Bears, who still may be in the hunt for the final wild card spot, while the Saints will host the Vikings in Week 16. Each team has a tough out of conference matchup on tap against the Titans and Chiefs respectively, but losing those games wouldn't impact playoff seeding if they won their other two games.

Ultimately, to earn a bye, the Seahawks first and foremost have to take care of their own business, getting even with the Rams in Week 16 and winning each of their final three games. Then, they have to hope the Saints and Packers both slip up in one of their two remaining conference games or somehow lose two out of their final three games to make tiebreakers a moot point.

That's a lot of dominos that have to fall Seattle's way in a short period of time. While it's far from impossible that scenario could happen, most likely, if they find a way to beat Los Angeles, the team will earn the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. Based on current standings, this would set up either a grudge match with the Rams or hosting Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in the Wild Card round.

For now, the Seahawks can't look too far ahead and need to maintain a championship mindset each week as Carroll has long preached. A playoff berth can be clinched with a victory in Washington on Sunday and that should be the only focus.

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Corbin K. Smith
CORBIN K. SMITH

Graduating from Manchester College in 2012, Smith began his professional career as a high school Economics teacher in Indianapolis and launched his own NFL website covering the Seahawks as a hobby. After teaching and coaching high school football for five years, he transitioned to a full-time sports reporter in 2017, writing for USA Today's Seahawks Wire while continuing to produce the Legion of 12 podcast. He joined the Arena Group in August 2018 and also currently hosts the daily Locked On Seahawks podcast with Rob Rang and Nick Lee. Away from his coverage of the Seahawks and the NFL, Smith dabbles in standup comedy, is a heavy metal enthusiast and previously performed as lead vocalist for a metal band, and enjoys distance running and weight lifting. A habitual commuter, he resides with his wife Natalia in Colorado and spends extensive time reporting from his second residence in the Pacific Northwest.