How the Panthers’ win affects matchup with Seahawks in Week Seventeen

I just watched Baker Mayfield throw a game-ending interception in Carolina about five minutes ago, and the impact that ill-timed turnover has on the Seattle Seahawks was immediately on my mind. The ways in which the race for the NFC South can affect the Seahawks are clear and compelling, if somewhat subjective in determining the desired outcome.

For one, there is still a very reasonable chance that Seattle does not win the NFC West, gets the #5 seed in the NFC, and plays the winner of the south in the Wild Card Round. That winner can only be Tampa Bay or Carolina, so the debate is over which team would be the preferable opponent, remembering that the game will be on the road regardless of record.

The Buccaneers have a higher ceiling as a team, having looked like genuine super bowl contenders earlier in the season, including a game where they demolished Mike Macdonald’s defense in Seattle. But the Panthers have looked much better in recent months and seem to have a stronger home field advantage (they beat the Rams at home a couple weeks ago).

Everyone’s going to have their own opinion on which matchup is better and there’s no clear right answer. For me, Tampa Bay has looked so bad in recent weeks, I’d prefer that they back their way into the division crown and get served up for the Seahawks, as opposed to a Carolina squad that seems to be peaking and might be better equipped for January football.

But that’s arguable. What’s not arguable is that, because of Carolina’s win today, they no longer have an urgent need to win next week when they host the Seahawks in their penultimate game of the season. I wouldn’t expect the Panthers to rest their starters, but I’m sure that there will be an understanding that the NFC South will be decided in week 18, and not in week 17.

Today was the first game in the season series between Buccaneers and Panthers, with both teams entering tied at 7-7. Carolina now leads by a game and a tiebreaker, but there’s a rematch in two weeks, so that tiebreaker will be re-tested then. Since both teams will have a 3-3 divisional record if Tampa gets revenge, the tiebreaker is win percentage in common games.

Common games include the Falcons and Saints (2x), the NFC West, and the AFC East. The Buccaneers are 6-5 in those games, and the Panthers are 5-6. Both teams still have one more game to complete the slate of common games, but Tampa Bay gets to play the Quinn Ewers-led Dolphins who just got blown out by the Cincinnati Bengals. So 7-5 is highly likely.

Dec 21, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers safety Lathan Ransom (22) celebrates with safety Tre'Von Moehrig (7) and linebacker Christian Rozeboom (56) after intercepting the ball to seal the victory in the fourth quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Long story short, the Buccaneers are almost guaranteed to own this tiebreaker, meaning Carolina can only get in by winning the division outright. And all they need to do for that is to win in the season finale in Tampa Bay, and this upcoming game against Seattle means rather little.

It’s not as if a 10-7 Panthers team has a realistic chance of being seeded higher than 4th, either, given Philadelphia is already at 10 wins and still gets a matchup against the Commanders. This is a fairly binary decision tree for the Panthers. Either they beat Tampa in Week 18 and get the #4 seed, or they lose to Tampa in Week 18 and watch the postseason at home.

So this Seattle game has limited impact. Yes, momentum is something that NFL teams will typically desire to maintain, and scoring a win against an NFC juggernaut would mean a lot for a young squad that will have to fight the urge to just be happy to make the playoffs. It might even be enough for them to start thinking that a deep run could be on the table.

But there’s another side to these sorts of things, and it’s very hard for human beings to completely ignore the objective fact that beating the Seahawks is not a priority for these Panthers right now. And this late in the season, there will be injured and banged up players that could benefit from a week off, and this is a rare opportunity to give them one.

So I’d expect Carolina to play this cautiously. Any close calls on the injury report get held out, and anyone who picks up bumps and bruises during the game is quickly put in street clothes. And beyond that, it may not be entirely clear if the players who are on the field have their hearts in it. Not a preseason game, but definitely a bowl of soup sandwiched between two entrees.

Seattle, on the other hand, most certainly needs this win to keep their top spot in the NFC, and that difference in expected intensity should make a big difference.