4 Things to Watch: Steelers vs Falcons
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a chance to go on their first winning streak of the season if they can find a way to victory in Week 13.
The Atlanta Falcons are technically still alive in the playoff hunt because of how awful the rest of the NFC South has been this season while the Steelers' wildcard hopes are extremely dim at the moment. This is a game that both teams really must win if they want to maintain their playoff aspirations for a short while longer.
Here's what you want to watch in this matchup.
Pickett's Potential Breakout Performance?
Since the bye week, Kenny Pickett's play has been a lot less erratic, and he's coming off an impressive performance against the Colts where he played even better than his stat line showed.
With only three touchdown passes in his first 265 attempts, Pickett seems due for some positive touchdown regression fairly soon. Atlanta's defense has struggled to stop pretty much anyone this year, ranking 28th in dropback efficiency per attempt (EPA)/play and 29th in passing success rate. Pittsburgh's offense however has been trending up since the bye week, averaging nearly 25 points per game as they've been far more balanced of late.
To make the matchup even juicier for the rookie, Atlanta ranks 30th in pressure rate and next to last in sacks per game. Pickett should have a lot of time in the pocket to scan the Falcons' zone-heavy defense.
When the Steelers do get man coverage on the outside, Pickett must take advantage because that's not necessarily the strength of this defensive backfield aside from A.J. Terrell. Call it a gut feeling, but I think Pickett can easily come away with a multi-touchdown pass game in this one. If that happens, the Steelers' chances to win should skyrocket as well.
Atlanta's Defined Offensive Identity
Arthur Smith's offense has a very clear identity: run the football down your throat and work the play-action passing game off of that.
Smith, the former Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator, doesn't have a player the caliber of Derrick Henry on this roster but their talented trio of Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier and Marcus Mariota have kept this team afloat this season.
Atlanta's a zone-heavy running team, mostly out of big personnel where they'll use multiple tight ends, averaging 6.5 yards per carry on outside zone and 4.5 yards per carry on inside zone, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Their entire offensive identity, in both the run and pass game, revolves around those two concepts.
While Mariota's 230 yards on designed run plays ranks fourth in the NFL for his position, he's an extremely limited passer. Nearly 40% of his attempts have come off of play-action as Smith has desperately tried to hide his limitations in the drop-back passing game. The former number two overall pick in 2015 can still scoot, which means that rush integrity has to be top-notch in this matchup. The Falcons are top five in both rushing EPA/play and rushing success rate, and they aren't bashful about trying to impose their will on the opponent.
The Steelers' run defense has certainly improved this season, but this will be a fairly big challenge for the front seven.
Grady Jarrett: Force to be Reckoned With
On most NFL teams, their most productive pass rusher is often rushing off of the edge, but that is not the case with Atlanta's defense.
Grady is a one-man band of sorts for the Falcons' defense, leading them in pressures (36) and sacks (6), according to Pro Football Focus. The former Clemson defensive lineman is on the smaller side for the position, but he's one of the most explosive players that you'll find on the interior in today's game.
Jarrett comes equipped with elite quickness, a lightning-fast first step and a myriad of pass-rushing moves at his disposal with a club swim being his go-to move.
You come to appreciate Jarrett's game the more that you watch him because he plays 100 miles per hour on every rep as his motor runs hot constantly. This shows up in the run game as you'll see him make plays from the backside that most guys his size can't. What makes his production in both phases even more impressive is that the Falcons have never really surrounded him with another high-level player along the defensive line, but he still produces year in and year out. He's played on some horrific defenses throughout his career which is likely part of the reason that he doesn't receive as much national attention as he should.
The Steelers' interior offensive line, specifically James Daniels and Mason Cole, has been their strength up front but this will be a huge test, one that they'll have to win to move the ball efficiently.
Special Teams Need to Rebound
Remember last week when the Steelers took a comfortable 16-3 lead into halftime, and everyone finally thought that Pittsburgh would win a game in a non-dramatic fashion? The second-half kickoff proceeded to be taken back 89 yards setting up an easy touchdown drive for the Colts' offense that had been lifeless up until that point.
It's worth bringing that up because Atlanta is second in both kickoff and punt return DVOA this season.
Return man Avery Williams is actually leading the NFL in yards per punt return at a whopping 17.4 clip. If you recall, Williams ran back nine kicks for touchdowns in college at Boise State, showing his acumen for the end zone.
Then there's Cordarrelle Patterson, who received some massive praise this week from Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. The converted wide receiver turned running back is still one of the best kick returners in the game as he took one to the crib against his former team, the Chicago Bears, just a few weeks ago. That was his ninth career kick return touchdown, which of course put him in sole possession of first place in NFL history.
The Steelers special teams units have been special, to say the least, this season, ranking 27th in overall DVOA and dead last in kickoff DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Danny Smith's group needs a bounce-back week in a big way, and smart money says to avoid kicking to either player at
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