Steelers Odds Increasing to Land New QB in NFL Draft

PITTSBURGH -- If the Pittsburgh Steelers follow what the odds predict, they will be taking a quarterback for the second time since 2022.

The Steelers are one of several organizations trying to improve their quarterback situation. With each day that passes without Aaron Rodgers re-signing, more uncertainty builds.

It's why they are a realistic landing spot for the second first-round QB in this year's NFL Draft class. Alabama Crimson Tide signal-caller Ty Simpson is expected to go on day one of the 2026 NFL Draft, and according to the latest data from ESPN Analytics, he is the most likely option for the Steelers to draft with the 21st selection, with a 12% likelihood in their latest model.

Prediction or Miscalculation?

There's an argument to be made that this is an accurate prediction and projection for the Steelers. The organization has been transparent in their desire to draft a quarterback. Head coach Mike McCarthy was straightforward at the most recent NFL Owners Meetings, making it clear that the Steelers want to bring in young competition, even if they bring Rodgers back for the 2026 campaign.

Based off of what McCarthy and general manager Omar Khan have communicated, QB is a safe choice for the upcoming draft. The question is, when do they select one?

This is where the miscalculation might come in. The ESPN Analytics has the Steelers' top needs listed as quarterback, wide receiver, offensive guard and cornerback, respectively.

The Steelers see quarterback as a need, but is it as pressing or important as some of the other roster holes? For an organization that seems so confident about their quarterback situation, they. couldn't possibly want to spend a first-round pick on a player who might not start in the 2026 season, right?

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson — Alabama's Ty Simpson (15) rushes in the second half of the College Football Playoff game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Alabama Crimson Tide at the Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Friday Dec. 19, 2025. | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What the Steelers Should Do at 21

The Steelers can add at quarterback, just not in the first round. Simpson is a third-round player in a year when there is just one first-round quarterback (Fernando Mendoza).

Instead, the Steelers should look at the third round and beyond to bring in that quarterback competition. Players like Carson Beck from Miami, PSU's Drew Allar, Taylen Green from Arkansas and Cole Peyton from North Dakota State are all players that will be there during day two and three of the draft.

With the 21st pick, the Steelers have much bigger fish to fry. Those needs, as ESPN outlined, include multiple holes on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. They should focus on taking one of the top offensive lineman available, adding another pass-catching threat, or adding another foundational member of the secondary moving forward.

It might be statistically likely that Ty Simpson is the Steelers' first round pick, but that doesn't mean it should happen. The organization has plenty of choices to make with the 21st pick, but the Alabama quarterback should not be one of them.

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