Vrabel Could Not Go Wrong on 'Interesting' Fourth-Down Call Sunday

Mike Vrabel’s decision to go for it on fourth-and-11 from the Houston 37-yard-line early in the fourth quarter Sunday no doubt raised some eyebrows among Tennessee Titans supporters.

It did not improve his team’s chances to win the game, though. Then again, it did not hurt them either.

EdJSports, a sports analytics website, called it “one of the more interesting (fourth) down decisions of the season,” but noted that the Titans’ chance for victory in that moment prior to the snap was exactly the same (71.3 percent) whether Vrabel went for it on fourth down or sent out kicker Sam Sloman for a 55-yard field goal attempt.

Of course, Tennessee ultimately won 41-38 when Sloman made a 37-yard field goal as time expired.

EdJSports on that decision:

A missed field goal attempt would have given the Texans the ball just five yards shy of midfield, dropping Tennessee to 61.7% GWC. However, considering Tennessee’s kicking situation, a punt may have been on Coach Vrabel’s mind, as well. Had he chosen to punt, the Titans pre-snap GWC would’ve been 3% lower vs. going for it. Vrabel chose the more aggressive of the two options that gave his team the best chance to win against a Houston defense that was bottom five against both the pass and the run in our Edj Sports Power Indexes (EPIs), especially given his own defense’s struggles (30th in Pass Defense EPI).

At the time, the Titans led the Texans by three and a field goal would have doubled that advantage.

Vrabel chose to go for it, and things could not have turned out much worse. Tannehill was sacked for a loss of 11 yards, which gave Houston its best starting field position of the contest. Just under three minutes later, the Texans had the lead for the first time.

“I thought we were out of field goal range and wanted to try to get a first down,” Vrabel said following the game. “… We’ll have to do a better job executing in those situations.”

Actually, they have been pretty good. The Titans were 10-for-16 (62.5 percent) on fourth down during the regular season. That was their highest number of fourth-down conversions and their best percentage since 2013, and it placed them among the NFL’s top 10 in success rate for the season.

Overall, Vrabel finished 15th in the EdJSports Coach Rankings, which rate strengths and weaknesses based on a weighted average of two primary metrics, including one that looks at offensive play calls on fourth down and whether or not they improved a team’s chances to win.

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