Henry or Tannehill? Who Can the Titans Least Afford to Lose to Injury?
Ryan Tannehill has played the best football of his career over the past two seasons. Derrick Henry has been the NFL’s best running back over that same span.
Together, they have helped make the Tennessee Titans’ offense as explosive and as multi-dimensional as any and have brought out the best in one another. Tannehill’s accuracy and decision-making have helped open up things for Henry, whose punishing running style has demanded so much attention from defenses that Tannehill often has little trouble finding an open receiver.
What if one is unavailable for an extended period?
It is the question that Titans fans don’t want to ponder, but injuries are a reality in the NFL. Tannehill has stayed healthy during his time with Tennessee, but he missed 21 games with knee and shoulder issues over his final three seasons with Miami. Henry has missed just two games in five seasons, but this year he faces the “Curse of 370,” a historical trend that shows many running backs experience a steep decline in production the year after they have at least 370 touches in a season (Henry had 397 combined carries and receptions in 2020).
Henry has shown he has no equal in the NFL when it comes to his combination of size, speed and power. So, if he is injured there simply is no one to take his place.
Tannehill is not irreplaceable, but if he is unavailable, the Titans do not have a proven backup in place.
So, which one can Tennessee least afford to lose to injury in 2021? Let’s break it down.
WHAT THEY MEAN TO THE OFFENSE
Henry: He has led the NFL in rushing each of the last two years and in 2020 produced the fifth-highest total in league history (2,027 yards). Tennessee ran the ball more than every team except Baltimore in 2020 and every team except Baltimore and San Francisco in 2019. Henry has accounted for 70.5 percent of the Titans’ rushes, 72.6 percent of their rushing yards and 33 of their 47 rushing touchdowns during that span.
Tannehill: In 26 starts, he has directed nine game-winning drives, including a league-high six in 2020, and Tennessee has scored 30 or more points 15 times. He has had a passer rating of better than 100 for the first two times in his career topped by an NFL-best 117.5 in 2019. Even with the reliance on the running game, he was one of nine NFL quarterbacks with at least 33 touchdown passes in 2020.
WHAT THEY MEAN TO EACH OTHER
Henry: More than one-third of Tannehill’s pass attempts last season came on play-action, and nobody had more passing yards on play-action than Tannehill, who had 1,541. Plus, the need of defenses to focus on stopping the run made them predictable. More than half of Tannehill’s passing yards and 21 of his 33 touchdown passes came on plays when he spent fewer than 2.5 seconds in the pocket.
Tannehill: Henry has rushed for 100 yards or more 20 times in his career, 15 of them (plus four of his five 200-yard games) since Tannehill became the starting quarterback. Not only has Tannehill’s accuracy kept defenses more honest, his pre-snap decision-making often has gotten the offense into the right play, which has minimized Henry’s losses or no gains.
THE BACKUPS
Henry: Darrynton Evans, a third-round pick in 2020, is the opposite of Henry, a small, elusive runner who figures to be as much of a factor in the pass game as he is the run game, provided he can stay healthy. Jeremy McNichols showed last season he can be a serviceable, albeit unspectacular, option but he will have to hold off free agent Brian Hill, who has been a backup throughout his career and averaged 4.65 yards on 100 carries for Atlanta last season.
Tannehill: As of right now, the choices are Logan Woodside, last year’s No. 2, or Deshone Kizer. Woodside has attempted three passes in his career, and his only completion came on a fake punt. Kizer was a second-round pick in 2017, but he is 0-15 as an NFL starter and has not played in a regular-season game since 2018.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Both men are critical to the Titans’ success.
What it comes down to, though, is that if Tannehill gets hurt, there still will be someone to hand off to Henry. Yes, Henry will face more eight and even nine-man boxes in that situation, but that will just make it easier for Tannehill’s replacement to throw when need be. And wide receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones have the ability to make any quarterback look good because they can make contested catches or turn short throws into long gains.
Without Henry, the Titans lose their offensive identity. Of course, they will continue to run the ball and the offensive line will open holes for whoever takes the handoff but gone is the ability to wear down defenses and influence their decision-making with the run. Henry is not only the guy who makes Tennessee go, he also is the guy who makes everyone believe that things will be OK. Without him, the rest of the team – Tannehill included – looks much closer to ordinary.
