Matthew Coller: 5 under-the-radar factors for Vikings-Rams

Alright, it’s gameday. With a win on Monday night, the Vikings can earn a trip to play against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Let’s take a look at a few less-talked-about factors that might play a role in the result…

Turnover causers versus turnover avoiders

Once upon a time, you could bank on Matthew Stafford getting strip-sacked or throwing a bad interception against the Vikings defense but this year he has not turned the ball over very often. Fifteen quarterbacks had more interceptions than Stafford’s eight INTs and the Rams only lost five fumbles all season. Only three teams in the NFL had fewer total turnovers (Buffalo, LAC, Baltimore).

On the other side of the coin, the Vikings defense has been the NFL’s best turnover-causing unit in the league. They forced 33 in total, 24 of which were interceptions. One of those did come against Stafford earlier this season.

Turnovers are nearly impossible to predict but there is one interesting stat going in the Vikings’ favor when it comes to getting takeaways: Stafford tied for third among starting QBs in Turnover-Worthy Play percentage. He may have only had eight INTs but he totaled 21 TWPs. The Vikings will be looking to put an end to his turnover luck.

Stafford under pressure

In terms of massive negative plays, Stafford has done a terrific job avoiding sacks. With only 28 times sacked, he ranks sixth in the percentage of times he’s sacked when under pressure. More simply put: He’s hard to take down these days even the heat is on. However, Stafford has had very little success when under duress.

Stafford had the lowest PFF grade of all QBs with at least 100 pressured drop-backs. He completed just 46% of passes, averaged 5.6 yards per attempt and produced a 50.8 QB rating, second worst in the NFL.

The problem for the Vikings: Stafford doesn’t get pressured a lot. Only 31.1% of drop-backs were pressured, fifth lowest. Will the Vikings defense, which rated sixth in percentage of attempts where they created pressure (via Pro-Football Ref) be able to make Stafford uncomfortable? Or will the ball already be out of his hands?

Blitzing might not be the perfect solution. Versus the blitz, Stafford averaged 8.4 yards per attempt, got the ball out of his hands in 2.46 seconds (fifth fastest) and had a 103.2 QB rating (ninth best).

The Rams aren’t big blitzers and they like to drop back a 310-pound guy in coverage

The Rams ranked 21st in blitz percentage this season and 21st in pressure percentage. After watching the way the Lions rushed Sam Darnold last week, will the Rams switch up their plan and start to send extra pressure? They only blitzed Darnold eight times in the Week 8 matchup and Darnold ate them alive when they did. He went 6-for-8 with 70 yards and two touchdowns.

In fact, last week was an outlier in terms of Darnold’s performance versus the blitz. He was the sixth highest graded starting QB vs. the blitz during the regular season and led the NFL in yards per attempt when facing at least five rushers.

The Rams don’t commit a lot of penalties

The team whose opponents committed the most penalties in the NFL this year: The Minnesota Vikings.

The team who committed the fewest penalties in the NFL this year: The Los Angeles Rams.

Last week the Lions dared the refs to fling the flags and largely had success playing extra physical with the Vikings wide receivers and tight ends. Justin Jefferson is well prepared for grabbing and bumping as he drew more penalties than any other receiver this season but the level of physicality that’s allowed by the refs will play a role in how often Darnold can work the ball to Jefferson. The last time he faced the Rams, JJ went off for 115 yards.

Cam Robinson hasn’t been as stable recently

The Vikings acquired Robinson after losing Christian Darrisaw to season-ending injury during their last matchup with the Rams and he provided stability to a position where the Vikings had no viable answer. He deserves all the credit for meeting the challenge but in recent weeks he has struggled to maintain consistency. Since Week 15, Robinson ranks 53rd of 60 in PFF pass blocking grade and has given up the second most pressures.

Robinson will be facing off with one of the best young edge rushers in the NFL in Jared Verse on Monday night. He produced 77 pressures this year, fourth most in the league. It isn’t an overstatement to say that Robinson’s performance could dictate how the offense can function.

Bonus factor: Rookie kickers

The Rams Josh Karty made 88% this year including 6-of-7 from 50-plus. Last week we saw Will Reichard miss from 52 and send a kickoff out of bounds. Will the pressure be too much for either inexperienced kicker?