Pelissero: 'Smart money' is still on Darnold being back with Vikings

NFL Network insider Tom Pelissero believes the "smart money" is still on Sam Darnold returning to Minnesota this offseason, whether via the franchise tag or a multi-year contract.

"I would still say that the smart money would be on Sam Darnold being back in Minnesota," Pelissero said on KFAN radio on Thursday. "And if anything, what happened in those last two games might make it simpler to get him back."

For most of the first 16 games of the season, Darnold played at a very high level for the Vikings. He thrived in Kevin O'Connell's offense, recording 13 games with a passer rating above 100. The arm talent and athleticism that made him a top-3 pick back in 2018 were finally on display. He finished the regular season fifth in both passing yards and passing touchdowns and had seemingly cemented a return to Minnesota in 2025.

And then the last two games happened. In both a critical Week 18 game against the Lions and a first-round playoff matchup with the Rams, Darnold essentially turned back into the Jets version of himself. His accuracy was poor and he didn't seem to trust what he was seeing, which contributed to the nine sacks he took against LA. The Vikings lost those games by a combined score of 58-18, ending their 14-win season in sudden and painful fashion.

And yet, those two games don't make it a certainty that Darnold — a pending unrestricted free agent — won't be back in Minnesota. The team will consider his full body of work when making that decision, which is admittedly more complicated now. One option they have is to use the franchise tag for one year at around $41 million. They could also still look to get a multi-year deal done that gives them options to move on after the first year or two, but that price may have changed over the last couple weeks.

There's also the element to consider of McCarthy's readiness, with the 22-year-old coming off a knee injury that cost him his rookie season. These are Pelissero's full thoughts on the matter, from that KFAN segment:

"The way that the franchise tag operates and the way that it influences these markets is if the price on a long-term deal is higher than what the tag is, then that makes it leverage for the team," Pelissero said. "If the tag is at or above what the deal might be, that can become leverage for the player. In other words, let's say the Vikings think that a deal for Sam Darnold — I'm just coming up with a number off the top of my head — is 35 million dollars per year. Then using the franchise tag at $40 million a year is actually an advantage for Darnold. Because the moment the franchise tag's applied, every agent's gonna go, the immediate calculation is one tag this year is $40 million, next year it would be $48 million, that's 88 over two, that's the baseline, I'm not doing anything less than that. So that can be leverage for the players.

"The question's just gonna be what is the market for Sam Darnold? You would've said a couple weeks ago that maybe somebody does just go whole hog, all in, and give him a 50-plus million dollar (per year) contract. Not even necessarily because he's on the same level as those guys, but that's just how free agency works. In that case, you'd be thinking, if we can't get a deal done, we may as well tag him. Buy time for J.J. McCarthy to get fully healthy — and no, they're not trading J.J. McCarthy, no matter what anybody said or tried to report, they were never trading J.J. McCarthy. Or, if you think you can get a deal done for less than (the tag number), and Darnold could be in a place that still loves him based upon the body of work.

"The last two games were not good, I don't think anybody would lie to that. Does he take less less than that to just get the deal done and get some level of security? That hey, J.J.'s still recovering, he's not gonna be ready to start next season — not physically, but I'm saying just overall readiness — let's just take the deal, you know you're gonna be starting in 2025 for the Vikings. These are complicated types of things. The fact that for 15 games, he looked like he was playing at a borderline MVP level. And the last two, you would say, this is the bad Sam Darnold we've seen in the past. It definitely complicates things, but the most logical outcome for all parties has always been Sam Darnold is coming back. The question is just can you get a deal done, and if you can't, do you use the tag, or do you say 'go ahead and see what your market is?' and we're probably gonna get this deal done because this is the best place for you."

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