Vikings Ranked Among 2022 Playoff Teams Least Likely to Return in '23
The Vikings won 13 games last season, cruised to an NFC North title, and earned the No. 3 seed in the conference — but they were playing above their heads all year. By going 11-0 in one-score games and making the postseason with a negative point differential and an awful defense, the team was defying logic.
Reality reared its ugly head when the Vikings lost to the Giants at home in the wild card round, then watched that same Giants team get absolutely demolished the following weekend in Philadelphia. The first year of the Kevin O'Connell era was one for the storybooks, but the Vikings were never close to being true contenders.
They believe they've taken steps to improve in 2023, despite moving on from a number of veteran starters this offseason. On paper, the offense could improve due to greater comfort with O'Connell's system and the contributions of newcomers Jordan Addison and Josh Oliver. Defensively, the Vikings fired coordinator Ed Donatell and brought in widely-respected tactician Brian Flores to install a much more aggressive scheme and philosophy.
Still, everyone and their mother is understandably predicting significant regression for the Vikings this year. Their Vegas win total is just 8.5 and they're firmly behind the Lions in the betting odds to win the division.
ESPN's Bill Barnwell recently ranked all 14 of last year's playoff teams by their chances of returning to the dance in 2023. He has the Vikings 12th, ahead of only the aforementioned Giants and the post-Tom Brady Buccaneers.
Why they're No. 12: They weren't a very good team in 2022.
Yes, the Vikings went 13-4. By every other measure, they were average or worse. They were outscored by three points. The FPI ranked them as the 16th-best team. Football Outsiders was even more dramatically out on Kevin O'Connell's team, ranking it as the 27th-best team. Disasters teams, such as the Broncos and Raiders, rated ahead of the Vikings by Football Outsiders' play-by-play metrics, but they were wildly more successful in the win-loss column.
You already know why by now: The Vikings went an unprecedented 11-0 in one-score games, while the Broncos and Raiders were a combined 7-18 in those games. A team synonymous with kicking disasters in the fourth quarter went 10-for-10 on field goals in the final stanza. Going back through ESPN's win probability data, which begins in 2009, Minnesota produced a staggering 7.7 wins in the fourth quarter, the most of any team over that span. The same team generated minus-1.6 wins over the first three quarters of their games, meaning the Vikings played like the 2022 Rams and Broncos in the first 45 minutes before turning into the best team in NFL history over the final 15 minutes.
That's not happening again, unfortunately. The Vikings have tried to retool on both sides of the ball this offseason, shedding the significant salaries of veterans Za'Darius Smith, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook and Eric Kendricks. Investments in younger players Byron Murphy and Marcus Davenport will need to pay off, while the young talent drafted by general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah over the past two years will shoulder more responsibility. It would be truly stunning if Minnesota won 13 games again.
That's all fair analysis. It really is absurd how well the Vikings played in the fourth quarter of games; Kirk Cousins led the league with eight comebacks in the final quarter. The most extreme examples were the miraculous overtime win over the Bills and the biggest comeback in NFL history against the Colts. It was exhilarating stuff basically every week (aside from a handful of blowout losses).
Regardless, there's a case that the Vikings should be higher than 12th on this list. They play in the NFC North, which features the rebuilding Bears and Packers and a Lions team that might be getting too much hype this offseason. Detroit should once again have a great offense, but its defense is a major question mark.
The good news for the Vikings is that they won't need those 13 wins to make it to the postseason. They are in the weaker conference and line up in a wide-open NFC North, where the Packers are moving on to Jordan Love, the Bears are in the middle of a rebuild and the Lions won't be able to sustain their turnover margin from the second half of 2022. Thirteen wins aren't coming, but nine wins would be a lot more plausible. In a seven-team playoff, nine wins probably gets Minnesota in.
If nine wins gets the Vikings into the playoffs, they should have a pretty good chance at getting that done, despite a difficult schedule. I actually predicted them to go 11-6 when the schedule came out (which is admittedly optimistic).
It's going to be a fascinating season in Minnesota.
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