Cowboys represent a much tougher test for J.J. McCarthy, Vikings

If you're just looking at certain team defensive metrics, the Vikings' game against the Cowboys this week doesn't look much different than their most recent contest against the Commanders in terms of the challenge it will present J.J. McCarthy.

Washington ranks 30th in pass yards allowed per game, 32 in opponent EPA per dropback, and 29th in pass defense DVOA. Dallas is 32nd, 30th, and 30th in those three stats, respectively. These have been two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL all season.

But when you take into account some other factors, it becomes clear that this week brings a much different level of test for McCarthy than last week did. On a very basic level, the stage comes with more pressure. A noon game at home against a hapless Commanders team is almost nothing like a Sunday Night Football appearance at AT&T Stadium against a Cowboys team fighting for its playoff lives. The difference in stadium energy and total viewership is going to be substantial.

The other key element is that whereas Washington's offense was abysmal in last Sunday's 31-0 Vikings win, the Cowboys have one of the most high-powered attacks in the NFL. They lead the league in total yards per game and are third in points and fifth in EPA per play. Dak Prescott and company are going to move the ball and put up points, even against a Vikings defense that's had a good season. That means McCarthy and company will have to find a way to keep pace on the scoreboard to emerge with an upset win.

McCarthy took a big step in the right direction against the Commanders, but it's hard to know exactly what to make of that performance because so many factors worked in his favor. The Vikings led for almost the entire game, leaned on their running game, and had McCarthy focus on quicker, shorter passes. The Vikings were 6 of 10 on third down prior to a late kneel, but only two of those were 3rd and 10 or longer. They were able to dictate the terms of the game for most of the day.

In all likelihood, that won't be the case on Sunday night. The Cowboys' defense remains a mess, even if their midseason trade for Quinnen Williams has given them a game-wrecker in the middle of their front. But their electrifying offense drags teams into shootouts. The Cowboys have played five games this season where both teams scored at least 27 points, which is tied with the Bengals for the most in the NFL in 2025.

On a big stage, McCarthy has a lot to prove on Sunday night. Can he succeed when the cards aren't stacked in his favor? Can he get the ball to Justin Jefferson? The Vikings aren't going to be able to run the ball and dink and dunk their way to a win at Jerry World. That's what makes this game a fascinating test of their young quarterback's progress.

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