How many teams have started 4-6 and made the playoffs in a 17-game season?

Since the NFL expanded to a 17-game regular season, 19 teams have started 4-6, and only five of them went on to make the playoffs. The 2025 Minnesota Vikings are the 20th team to join the club, but will they be the sixth team to accelerate into the postseason, or will they fade into the offseason like most 4-6 teams do?

Of the five fortunate teams, two got in as the result of playing in a bad division, two others snuck in as the last wild-card team with nine wins, and one got to 10 wins to secure the No. 6 seed.

Last season, five teams started 4-6. Only one, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, made the playoffs. The Bears slumped to 5-12, the Colts and Dolphins both finished 8-9, the Bengals surged to 9-8 but didn't get in, and the Buccaneers rallied for a 10-7 record and lost to the Commanders on Wild Card Weekend.

Minnesota Vikings, NFL playoff standings — Teams that have started 4-6 since the 17-game schedule was adopted in 2021. | Pro Football Reference

Seven teams started 4-6 in 2023, with three of them rallying for a playoff berth. Green Bay finished 9-8 to sneak in, while the Rams got to 10 wins for a wild card, and the Bucs, once again, won the NFC South with a 9-8 record.

Of the four teams that started 4-6 in 2022, none made the playoffs. In 2021, one of three teams that started 4-6 reached the postseason: Philadelphia, which finished 9-8 to sneak in as a wild card.

Let's take a deeper look at the previous five teams to go from 4-6 to the playoffs.

2024 Buccaneers 10-7

After a 4-2 start, the Bucs lost four straight to fall to 4-6, only to rally with six wins in the last seven games to win the division by two games. Unlike the 2025 Vikings, these Bucs had a veteran quarterback in Baker Mayfield leading the charge. They also weren't losing to bad teams. Instead, their four straight losses were to the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, and 49ers. The last three were by a combined 14 points.

2023 Buccaneers 9-8

Like the '24 Bucs, this team started 3-1 only to lose six of its next seven games to fall to 4-7. They won five of six to end the season 9-8, winning the NFC South in a tiebreaker over the Saints. Then they smashed Philly on Wild Card Weekend before bowing out to the Lions in the divisional round. This team benefited from playing in a bad division, which the Vikings are not afforded in 2025. They also had a top-10 defense.

2023 Packers 9-8

After a 2-5 start, the Packers won seven of the last 10 games to sneak in as a wild-card team. It was Jordan Love's first season as the starting quarterback, but he had two full years and no serious injuries to learn behind Aaron Rodgers. Compare that to J.J. McCarthy, who had one year, while battling a serious knee injury, to learn before taking over the starting job. The 2023 Packers beat Dallas 48-32 in the first round of the playoffs before falling 24-21 to the 49ers in the divisional round. Despite the 9-8 record, Green Bay boasted the No. 12 scoring offense and the No. 10 scoring defense.

2023 Rams 10-7

The Rams shed a 3-6 start with seven wins in the last eight games to finish 10-7 and secure the No. 6 seed. The rough start coincided with Cooper Kupp being on injured reserve the first five weeks of the season, but they got healthy and rallied behind veteran QB Matthew Stafford and the No. 8 scoring offense in the NFL.

2021 Eagles 9-8

They went 6-2 in the last eight games to get into the playoffs at 9-8 as the third wild-card team. Similar to the 2025 Vikings with McCarthy, this was Jalen Hurts' second season and first as a full-time starter. Unlike the current Vikings, Hurts didn't miss five games earlier in the season with an injury, and he took care of the football, throwing for 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions while rushing for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns. He only lost one fumble.

What does it mean for the 2025 Vikings?

For starters, we can rest assured that it's going to take more than 10 wins to win the NFC North. Minnesota would have to win out to finish 11-6, which still might not be good enough to win the division.

The odds of claiming a wild-card spot with nine wins are extremely unlikely because the teams occupying the wild-card spots right now are Seattle (7-3), Green Bay (6-3-1), and San Francisco (7-4). Are any of them going to finish with under 10 wins?

It'll take at least 10, maybe 11 wins to make the NFC playoffs as a wild card this season, and that's why Minnesota's odds to make the postseason are a measly 2% entering Week 12. It's not pretty, and, likely, the 2025 Vikings WON'T be the sixth team to make the playoffs after starting 4-6.