How the Vikings can stay mathematically alive (or get eliminated) in Week 15

The Vikings' win over the Commanders this past weekend kept them mathematically alive in the playoff mix, but we're talking about minuscule odds that would require a miracle sequence of events. In all likelihood, their official elimination will occur at some point this Sunday.

In order for the Vikings to stave off elimination for another week, three things need to happen this Sunday in the three different time windows for games.

Step 1 (12 p.m. CT): Browns (3-10) upset Bears (9-4) in Chicago

If the Bears get to 10 wins at any point, the Vikings are toast. Minnesota's only path is to tie Chicago at 9-8 and get in as the No. 7 seed on a division record tiebreaker. The 49ers are also currently 9-4, but the first tiebreaker with them would be conference record, and even if both teams finish 9-8, San Francisco would win that one.

So step one is for Shedeur Sanders and Cleveland to go into Soldier Field this weekend (in projected frigid temperatures) and emerge with an upset victory. They're currently 7.5-point underdogs. It feels unlikely, but the Bears have a -1 overall point differential and Sanders is coming off a great performance in a loss to the Titans. Myles Garrett needs 3.5 sacks in his final 4 games to set the all-time record.

Step 2 (3:25 p.m.): Rams (10-3) beat Lions (8-5)

If the Bears win that game, the Vikings will be eliminated. If the Browns pull off the upset, we can move on to the next step. This one requires the NFC-leading Rams to take care of business at home against the Lions in one of the best games of the week across the NFL.

Why's that necessary? Because in order to pull off a miracle and get in as the No. 7 seed, the Vikings are also going to have to jump past the Lions, who currently sit in eighth place. That means the Lions can only win one of their final four games to get to 9-8...and it has to be their matchup with the Bears in Week 18.

This part of the plan is at least fairly realistic. The Rams have looked like the best team in the league for much of this season and are currently favored by 5.5 at home against the up-and-down Lions. Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff meet again in a huge game for the Lions' playoff hopes.

Step 3 (7:20 p.m.): Vikings (5-8) beat Cowboys (6-6-1)

If the Browns and Rams do their jobs, the Vikings will control their own destiny when it comes to keeping their playoff dreams alive for at least one more week. They'll have to cap the day by going into AT&T Stadium in Arlington and beating the Cowboys in primetime.

This is going to be a much tougher task than beating the Commanders was last week. The Cowboys are a flawed team, but prior to their loss to the Lions on Thanksgiving, they had won three in a row, including victories over the Eagles and Chiefs. Trades have made their porous defense slightly better, and their offense is as high-powered as they come in the NFL.

Right now, the spread ranges from Vikings +5.5 to +6.5, depending where you look.

For context on the likelihood of the Vikings' playoff hopes surviving the day, a moneyline parlay on the Browns (+300), Rams (-270), and Vikings (+220) has roughly +1650 odds. That's an implied probability of around 6 percent.

And if all that happens this week, the Vikings' playoff odds would go from less than 1 percent to...still less than 1 percent. We're talking about needing a miracle of miracles over the next month.

But all the Vikings can do is hope to survive another week, one week at a time.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Step 1 (12 p.m. CT): Browns (3-10) upset Bears (9-4) in Chicago

Step 2 (3:25 p.m.): Rams (10-3) beat Lions (8-5)

Step 3 (7:20 p.m.): Vikings (5-8) beat Cowboys (6-6-1)

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