Mock Drafts Keep Sending the Vikings Dillon Thieneman. Do We Buy It?

If you click on a recent 2026 NFL mock draft from a national analyst and scroll down to No. 18 to check out their projected pick for the Minnesota Vikings, there's a good chance you'll see the name Dillon Thieneman. The standout safety from Oregon is the overwhelming consensus favorite to be the Vikings' selection in the first round of next month's draft.

He's the pick in the latest mock from NFL.com's Charles Davis, whose blurb of analysis is just nine words that sum up the reason why it's such a popular player-to-team match: "The Vikings find the perfect replacement for Harrison Smith." With Smith expected to retire (though he still seems to be considering playing a 15th season), the Vikings need a safety. Thieneman is a great player expected to come off the board around where the Vikings are picking. It makes sense.

It's just a bit jarring to see how many mocks have Thieneman going to Minnesota at 18. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. has made that pick in both of his mocks so far. Same with NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah. ESPN's Field Yates just did it. So did NFL.com's Bucky Brooks and CBS Sports' Josh Edwards and so many others.

The website NFL Mock Draft Database tracks mocks across the internet and has a consensus mock draft that incorporates all of the data. The most common pick is Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1 overall in 98 percent of mocks. That's followed by Ohio State LB Arvell Reese, who goes second to the Jets 74 percent of the time. The third most-common pick is Thieneman to the Vikings at 60 percent. No other player/team combo is even at 50 percent.

Dillon Thieneman | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Again, it's easy to see why it's such a common pick. Thieneman is a legitimately excellent safety prospect, having shined both as a freshman at Purdue and last season at Oregon. He racked up over 300 tackles, 10 TFL, 2 sacks, and 8 interceptions in three years of college football. Last year, he was PFF's second-highest-graded safety in the country at 91.0. Thieneman's tape shows a versatile playmaker with a skill set that would fit nicely into Brian Flores' defense. He then went out and dominated the NFL combine last month.

Extremely smooth from Dillon Thieneman. Checked every box today.

📈📈📈 pic.twitter.com/UreH1BrO76
— Ryan Fowler (@_RyanFowler_) February 27, 2026

If he isn't taken before the 18th pick, it would not be surprising at all to see Thieneman end up in Minnesota. But the consensus formed by mock drafters suggests it would be a surprise if he doesn't become a Viking, and that's worth pushing back on. There are a few reasons why this shouldn't be viewed as a slam dunk or a foregone conclusion.

For one, Thieneman isn't the only safety who could make sense at 18. The lone safety who earned a higher PFF grade than him last year was Toledo's Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, who has a legitimate case to be the second player drafted at that position after Ohio State's Caleb Downs. It's entirely possible the Vikings wind up preferring EMW, who is three inches taller and arguably a better open-field tackler than Thieneman.

There's also the broader question of positional value. Kyle Hamilton is the only safety taken in the top 18 picks in the last seven years, though Downs is a lock to join him this year. There are 13 players in that club since 2010. The hit rate is pretty solid, but there's also a reason why safeties don't go that high particularly often. Positional value isn't a reason for the Vikings to pass on Thieneman or McNeil-Warren if they believe they're going to be great in the NFL, but it's at least something to consider.

The Vikings having a need at safety doesn't mean they have to go that route in the first round. They could take a corner or a defensive tackle or any number of other positions with their first pick, then add a safety with one of their three selections on Day 2. Some of the safeties who could be fits in the 50-100 range include LSU's A.J. Haulcy, Arizona's Treydan Stukes and Genesis Smith, USC's Kamari Ramsey, Penn State's Zakee Wheatley, and TCU's Bud Clark.

Thieneman is a big-time prospect who might be a great fit for Flores' defense. But mock drafts are just mock drafts. The real draft is hard to predict, and the consensus is often wrong. Thieneman is just one of many players the Vikings could wind up taking when draft night rolls around on April 23.