Is Oregon's Dillon Thieneman Worthy of Vikings' Pick at 18th Overall?

More and more mock drafts, including some from prominent analysts, have the Vikings using the 18th overall pick in April's draft on Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman.

Last week, it was NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah who made that projection. Then NFL.com editor Gennaro Filice did the same. Most recently, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. sent Thieneman to the Vikings in his second mock of the cycle.

Last month, we talked about Thieneman as a potential ideal pick for the Vikings at No. 49 overall in the second round. That no longer seems to be any sort of possibility. Both Thieneman and Toledo's Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, if the draft experts are accurate, have a good chance to hear their names called on the first night.

Thieneman's fit with the Vikings makes plenty of sense. He's an outstanding safety prospect and Minnesota has a need for a Harrison Smith replacement, assuming the NFL's active leader in interceptions does decide to call it a career. Thieneman starred at both Purdue and Oregon, and his versatility and all-around skill set could help him slot right into Smith's spot in Brian Flores' defense.

Dillon Thieneman | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The key question is less about whether or not Thieneman makes sense in Minnesota and more about the value of taking him with a top-20 pick. Safety does not have the same consensus positional value as edge rusher or cornerback or defensive tackle. Then again, what matters most in the draft is landing a great football player. If the Vikings believe highly in Thieneman, positional value shouldn't matter all that much.

To illustrate the positional value point, consider this. Since 2010, only 13 safeties have been drafted in the top 18 picks, including just one in the last seven years. Here's the list:

Kyle Hamilton (14th in 2022)
Minkah Fitzpatrick (11th in 2018)
Derwin James (17th in 2018)
Jamal Adams (6th in 2017)
Malik Hooker (15th in 2017)
Karl Joseph (14th in 2016)
Keanu Neal (17th in 2016)
Calvin Pryor (18th in 2014)
Kenny Vaccaro (15th in 2013)
Eric Reid (18th in 2013)
Mark Barron (7th in 2012)
Eric Berry (5th in 2010)
Earl Thomas (14th in 2010)

During that same span, 29 cornerbacks have gone in the top 18 picks. There have also been 73 defensive linemen (DE/DT) and 48 linebackers (LB/OLB) taken in the top 18 in those drafts, according to Pro Football Reference.

Now, the hit rate on the 13 safeties above is pretty high. Six of them — Hamilton, Fitzpatrick, James, Adams, Berry, and Thomas — have made at least one All-Pro team. There's likely going to be a Hall of Famer or two from that group. Two others (Neal and Reid) made a Pro Bowl. Hooker and Vaccaro have had strong careers.

But that's more correlation than causation. Most of those players were drafted high because they were viewed as slam-dunk safety prospects. And even then, only Berry, Barron, and Adams were taken in the top ten picks. If you're taking a safety that high, it's probably because they were a superstar in college and had all kinds of tools that project well to the next level.

In this year's draft, Ohio State's Caleb Downs is the superstar safety prospect who has a chance to become the first top-five pick at his position since Berry. Thieneman and McNeil-Warren could also go in the first round. But if a team like the Vikings is going to take one of them in the top 18 and pass on players at more "valuable" positions, they better be pretty confident that player is going to have a long, successful career.