The Vikings' path back into the NFC North race runs through November

It all starts Sunday in Detroit for a Vikings team that has failed to meet expectations so far.

Detroit Lions fans cheer against Minnesota Vikings before a third down during the second half at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

At 3-4, the Vikings are far from dead in the NFC North, but a loss to Detroit on Sunday would be catastrophic to their chances of winning the division.

A loss would drop them to 3-5, while the Lions would move three games in front at 6-2. And then there's the Packers, who, after whipping the Steelers on Sunday night, are 5-1-1 ahead of a home game against the Panthers. All in all, a Vikings loss Sunday would put them so far back in the division that it would take an incredible surge to have any shot at winning the North.

On the flip side, a win over Detroit would get Minnesota to 4-4, with the Lions at 5-3 and the Packers favored to improve to 6-1-1. Being two games behind one team in the win column for the lead in the North is a lot more digestible than being three wins behind two teams.

The Packers and Lions are huge favorites to win on Sunday. Green Bay is a 12.5-point favorite against Carolina, and the Lions are favored by 8.5 points over the Vikings. But what if the Vikings pull the upset?

Looking ahead with a hypothetical win over Detroit

If J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings can stun the Lions in Detroit, the schedule for North teams throughout the rest of November is very difficult. So difficult, in fact, that the Vikings could find themselves back in the race.

Team	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Week 13
Packers	vs. Eagles	at Giants	vs. Vikings	at Lions
Lions	at Commanders	at Eagles	vs. Giants	vs. Packers
Bears	vs. Giants	at Vikings	vs. Steelers	at Eagles
Vikings	vs. Ravens	vs. Bears	at Packers	at Seahawks

The Vikings can open the door in the division with a win in Detroit, and then if they keep taking care of business, there are plenty of opportunities to receive assists from Detroit's and Green Bay's opponents.

Detroit plays at Washington and Philadelphia, and then has to host the Packers two weeks later. That's a brutal stretch, especially if the Vikings can put them on a loss.

Green Bay gets the Eagles at Lambeau Field in Week 10, but Philly once again looks like the best team in the NFC and is more than capable of leaving Lambeau with a win.

The Bears, meanwhile, play at Cincinnati this Sunday and then have a tough month against the Giants, Vikings, Steelers, and Eagles.

Minnesota has the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL overall, but nobody in the North has it easy in Weeks 10-13. Check it out...

Team	Opponents' combined record
Packers	16-14
Lions	16-13-1
Bears	15-15
Vikings	16-13-1

The best-case scenario for Minnesota is winning every game in November. That's not very realistic, considering they've been woefully inconsistent, so let's take the next-best scenario and say they beat Detroit, Baltimore, and Chicago, and split the back-to-back road trips to Green Bay and Seattle. That would have them at 7-5 entering December.

If the Packers and Lions each lose twice in Weeks 10-13, Green Bay would be 8-3-1 and Detroit would be 7-4. Even if the Vikings are 6-5 entering December, they wouldn't be completely dead in the NFC North — and they'd certainly still have a shot at making the playoffs as a wild-card team.

Again, none of this matters all that much if the Vikings don't leave Detroit with a win. But if they do, things could get interesting.