Three keys to victory for Vikings in a must-win game against the Bears

The Vikings' slim playoff hopes are effectively on the line on Sunday against the Bears. Sitting at 4-5 with eight games to play, Minnesota currently has an 11 percent chance of getting into the postseason, per The Athletic's simulator. A loss this week would drop that number to 4 percent.

You don't even need the odds projections to see why this game is a must-win for the Vikings. A victory would get them back to 5-5 and bring them to 3-0 in the NFC North. It would not only pull them within a game of the Bears, who are currently 6-3, it would also secure a head-to-head tiebreaker over Chicago. The Vikings would then have a path to get to 7-6 by splitting their tough two-week stretch of road games against the Packers and Seahawks before handling business against a bad Commanders team at home.

A loss this week would put the Vikings' playoff hopes on life support. At 4-6, they'd be looking at probably needing to go 6-1 over the final seven games to have a chance. That means beating all three of the NFC East teams they still have to face (Commanders, Cowboys, Giants) and only dropping one game out of four against the Packers (twice), Seahawks, and Lions.

So yeah, this is a huge one for the competitive element of the Vikings' 2025 season. Here are three keys for Minnesota to pull off the victory and complete a sweep of the Bears.

Stay ahead of the sticks

Obviously, the biggest key to victory for the Vikings is to have J.J. McCarthy play better. They need more accuracy and consistency out of their young quarterback, who has shown high-end flashes in his first four starts but has also looked frantic and missed too many open receivers. Ideally, though, the rest of the Vikings' offense can help make things easier for McCarthy, in order to set up what they hope can be the best game of his young career. That starts with staying ahead of the sticks.

Staying ahead of the sticks means getting consistent yardage on early downs in order to avoid third-and-long situations, which are difficult for any quarterback, and particularly tough for those lacking experience. The Vikings need to lean in on running the ball with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason against a Bears defense that has been middle-of-the-pack in defending the run this year (16th in opponent EPA per rush). The more effectively they can run it, the less they'll require of McCarthy.

It also, of course, means avoiding negative plays that put you in long down and distances. Last week, the eight false starts were killer in that regard. The Vikings need to clean that up and avoid pre-snap penalties, because those five yards are significant. Generally avoiding penalties and sacks will be key, but it starts with simply executing the snap count without anyone flinching.

"I think we identified maybe some areas where we can have a little bit more poise to the
communication," Kevin O'Connell said on Wednesday.

Take care of the football

This is another obvious one that applies to every game but feels especially critical this week. The Bears' defense ranks 21st in opponent EPA per play and 24th in opponent success rate. On a play-to-play basis, they haven't been very good. A huge reason for their 6-3 record, in addition to a relatively easy schedule, is that they've absolutely dominated the turnover column.

The Bears lead the league with 20 takeaways, which is three more than second place. They have a league-high 13 interceptions and seven fumble recoveries. 19 of those takeaways have come in Chicago's six wins over the Cowboys, Raiders, Commanders, Saints, Bengals, and Giants. In their three losses (Vikings, Lions, Ravens), they have just one total takeaway, which was Nahshon Wright's pick-six off of McCarthy in Week 1.

Nahshon Wright — David Banks-Imagn Images

The Bears, who have just six giveaways of their own, are a +14 in the turnover margin. Second place is down at +8. If the Vikings can take care of the football, they'll have a great chance to win the game. That hasn't been easy for Minnesota this year, as they're tied for second with 16 giveaways. McCarthy has six interceptions and a lost fumble in his four starts this year. It all gets back to the first key we talked about, which is staying out of obvious dropback passing situations.

Get Caleb on the ground

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is having a strong second season. He's completed around 61 percent of his passes for over 2,100 yards, 13 touchdowns, and four interceptions. He's also run for three scores. But easily the most impressive part of his improvement from year one to year two has been his sack avoidance.

Last season, Williams took a league-high 68 sacks, for a sack rate of about 11 percent. His pressure to sack rate was nearly 28 percent, one of the worst marks in the league. This year? Williams has been sacked just 14 times. He's more than cut his sack rate in half, dropping it to 4.5 percent. He's done the same with his pressure to sack rate, which is down to 12.1 percent. Only Bo Nix, Dak Prescott, and Jordan Love have been better at preventing pressures from turning into sacks this season.

Back in Week 1, the Vikings saw that growth from Williams firsthand. They pressured him on 20 of his 44 dropbacks but only finished with two sacks, both by Javon Hargrave in the fourth quarter. On several occasions, a Vikings pass rusher appeared to have Williams dead to rights, but he was able to escape and either generate a positive play or at least throw the ball away. Getting the Bears' QB down on the ground will once again be a challenge this week, but it would go a long way for the Vikings if they can make it happen at least 2-3 times.

"Caleb Williams is maybe the slipperiest quarterback out there right now," linebacker Blake Cashman said. "Almost Houdini-like, what he's able to do, how he's able to extend plays, get out of the pocket. We're gonna have to have a very organized plan, detailed plan on moving him off the spot but containing him when we do."

Stay ahead of the sticks

Take care of the football

Get Caleb on the ground

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