Vikings-Cowboys Predictions: Who Wins This Huge Week 11 NFC Matchup?

The Vikings won't have any shortage of bulletin board material for this one.

Despite being 8-1 and tied for the best record in the NFL, despite having won seven games in a row, and despite having some of the league's best players on both sides of the ball, the Vikings are home underdogs against the 6-3 Cowboys on Sunday — a Cowboys team coming off a collapse of a loss against the four-win Packers.

It's the first time in nearly 50 years — 1976, to be exact — that a team with at least an 8-1 record was a home underdog with its regular starting quarterback. That's a wild stat, courtesy of Ben Fawkes.

It's a sign that there's still some skepticism about this Vikings team, even after they rallied to beat the Bills on the road in the game of the year. Minnesota has won each of its last seven by eight points or fewer and ranks just 17th in Football Outsiders' DVOA, which helps explain why some aren't fully bought in just yet.

This week brings another tough test for Kevin O'Connell's team. They have to come off a mentally and physically draining game to face the Cowboys, who have significant star power on both sides of the ball as well. Dak Prescott has a solid offensive line and some dangerous weapons at his disposal, while Dan Quinn's defense leads the NFL in sacks and pressure rate.

This is arguably the game of the week in the NFL, and it'll be on CBS in almost every market during the late window, with the No. 1 team of Jim Nantz and Tony Romo on the call. There are major seeding implications on the line. The Vikings are looking to keep pace with the Eagles — and potentially pass them, if they get help from the Colts — for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Cowboys, who trail both the Eagles and Giants in their division, really need this win as they pursue the NFC East title.

Prediction time. We'll start with my pick and then look at the predictions from various national analysts.

Will's pick: Vikings 23, Cowboys 21

2022 record: 7-2

I missed on my pick for the second time all season last week, thinking the Josh Allen-led Bills would win at home. There were about 20 different times where it looked like that was going to be the case, but the Vikings miraculously found a way to get it done. I've learned my lesson about doubting this Minnesota group. This week, I'm taking them to feed off of the energy of their home crowd and pull off the minor upset. They have the pieces, the coaching, and most importantly, the confidence and belief in themselves required to win another close one and set an NFL record for consecutive one-score victories.

National predictions

SI MMQB: Two of five prognosticators are taking the Vikings to win at home.

Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Cowboys 24, Vikings 20

Have the Cowboys taken a step back on defense since Dak Prescott returned from injury or are they just facing better opponents? Much like the NFC East rival Eagles, they are susceptible against the run. That’s bad news with Dalvin Cook coming up, buoyed by a Vikings tackle combination that could mitigate the Cowboys’ pass rush. I still see Dallas as a more complete team with more playmakers overall, even if Minnesota's late-game magic could power the sun.

Bleacher Report Staff: Cowboys 30, Vikings 28

Mike Florio, PFT: Vikings 30, Cowboys 27

The Vikings have become the ultimate find-a-way team for 2022.

Michael David Smith, PFT: Cowboys 24, Vikings 17

The Vikings have the better record, but the Cowboys are the better team. They’ll prove it in Minnesota.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Vikings 30, Cowboys 26

The Vikings are home after a miraculous victory over the Bills last week when they rallied from 17 down late. The Cowboys are on the road for a second straight week after blowing a 14-point fourth-quarter lead in losing to the Packers. The Cowboys had major coverage issues last week, which Justin Jefferson will exploit. Look for the Vikings to keep it going.

Mark Craig, Minneapolis Star Tribune: Vikings 31, Cowboys 28

The Vikings are (over)due to lose. Again. But this NFL guesser, who whiffed the last two weeks saying the same darn thing, isn't tripling down against a very good, healthy team that's also being kissed on the forehead weekly by the gridiron gods. If the game were in Dallas, the Cowboys' defense would be the pick. But the game is at U.S. Bank Stadium and will be filled with a super-duper stoked fan base that will have an extra three and a half hours of liquid obnoxiousness in their lungs. It'll be a good one. And it'll be another one-score celebration.

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Vikings 24, Cowboys 21

The Vikings are coming off a long emotional road overtime win. The Cowboys are coming off a long emotional road overtime loss. That seems like a cocktail for a letdown and a rebound. Minnesota is feeling it in close games this season and can use power running effectively with Dalvin Cook again. The Cowboys' secondary will struggling giving up more big plays to Justin Jefferson. Dallas doesn't have the same firepower answer, especially when Dak Prescott isn't playing as consistently well as Kirk Cousins.

Seth Walder, ESPN: Cowboys 27, Vikings 24

Eric Moody, ESPN: Cowboys 34, Vikings 27

What to watch for:

The Cowboys won at U.S. Bank Stadium in 2020 and 2021 and are favored heading into this matchup even after losing Sunday at Green Bay. That could have something to do with the Vikings' thrilling but taxing overtime victory Sunday at Buffalo, a game that featured 178 plays, including special teams. Over the past 20 years, NFL teams are 127-133 in the game immediately following a road game that went to overtime, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. —

Kevin Seifert

Bold prediction:

CeeDee Lamb

will have more receiving yards than

Justin Jefferson

. Jefferson has five catches for 107 yards and a touchdown vs. Dallas. Lamb has 10 catches for 146 yards and a touchdown vs. Minnesota, including a 100-yard effort. Last week against the

Green Bay Packers

, Lamb had career highs in catches (11) and yards (150). On Sunday, he will post back-to-back 100-yard games for the second time in his career. —

Todd Archer

Stat to know:

Vikings quarterback

Kirk Cousins

has 39 straight games with a passing touchdown, the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest streak since Drew Brees went 45 straight from 2012 to 2015.

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