Vikings-Dolphins Predictions: Which First-Year Head Coach Wins in Week 6?

Can the Vikings stretch their winning streak to four games? All that's standing in their way is a Dolphins team quarterbacked by third-stringer Skylar Thompson, a seventh-round rookie who made his NFL debut last week in a loss to the Jets.

Still, this won't be easy. It's just the second true road game of the year for the Vikings, who lost to the Eagles in Philadelphia but won a neutral site game in London a couple weeks later. And while the Dolphins are down to their third-string QB, they still have dangerous weapons in Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert. Just as importantly, they have a bright offensive coach in Mike McDaniel leading the way.

Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell has won two straight games against fellow first-year coaches, beating Dennis Allen (Saints) and Matt Eberflus (Bears) in the last two weeks. Now he can stretch that streak to three with a victory over McDaniel, whose Dolphins started 3-0 before losing QB Tua Tagovailoa to a concussion.

The Dolphins have struggled defensively, so there should be opportunities for O'Connell and the Vikings to put points on the scoreboard.

Who wins on Sunday? Let's dive into some predictions, first from myself and then from a variety of national analysts.

Will's pick: Vikings 30, Dolphins 20

2022 record: 5-0

I think the Vikings should be able to handle business against a team playing a third-string rookie at quarterback. Minnesota's defense has struggled, but it has the players on all three levels to make things difficult on a young quarterback with very little NFL experience. Offensively, the Vikings should be able to score against a Dolphins team that ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Vikings win without needing the game to come down to the final play.

National predictions

SI MMQB: All five of SI's pickers are taking the Vikings to win on the road.

Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Vikings 24, Dolphins 23

Seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson will start at quarterback, with Tua Tagovailoa ruled out and Teddy Bridgewater also still in concussion protocol. The Dolphins’ top cornerback, Xavien Howard, and offensive line Jenga piece Terron Armstead are uncertain for Sunday, too. Thompson’s arm strength isn’t great, but I’m more worried about the other players’ availability. The Dolphins are so thin at cornerback and tackle without their stars. If Howard and Armstead play, I’ll flip this pick against a Vikings squad that doesn’t overly impress even if it makes big drives when necessary.

Bleacher Report Staff: Vikings 34, Dolphins 21

Even though Hill seems likely to play Sunday, the Dolphins' inexperience at the quarterback position with Thompson at the helm is a big blow to their offense. He's a third-string signal-caller who will start in his second NFL game. As the rookie goes through a learning experience, quarterback Kirk Cousins will go up and down the field on Miami's 28th-ranked pass defense, connecting with wideouts Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen for big plays to blow this game wide open.

Mike Florio, PFT: Dolphins 24, Vikings 21

The Vikings keep doing just enough to win, thanks to plenty of good luck. Their luck runs out this week.

Michael David Smith, PFT: Vikings 21, Dolphins 20

Top to bottom the Dolphins are the better team, but with rookie Skylar Thompson set to make the first start of his NFL career in Miami, I have to go with the Vikings.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Vikings 30, Dolphins 24

The Vikings could be impacted by the heat. But I think this will come down to Minnesota's offense against a bad Miami defense. The Vikings win it behind Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson.

Will Brinson, CBS Sports: Dolphins 28, Vikings 24

Any discussion of this game is largely irrelevant without knowing the precise nature of the Miami quarterback situation. Skylar Thompson, the late-round rookie, has been announced by Mike McDaniel as the starter. I think Teddy Bridgewater plays (he never suffered a concussion, per the Dolphins, but the altered protocols forced him to remain out of the game and miss practice). I'm willing to bet on the +3.5 that he ends up playing and I think we see a ton of points in this game too.

Mark Craig, Minneapolis Star Tribune: Vikings 30, Dolphins 24

A road trip to Miami this early in the season can wilt a visiting team, but a Dolphins defense that's given up 67 points the past two weeks won't stop the Vikings offense well enough for Miami to win a shootout without Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback.

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Vikings 24, Bears 20

The Vikings likely won't see their former first-rounder starter Teddy Bridgewater and the Dolphins won't be able to win with a run-heavy offense with wide receivers Tyreek Hill (foot) and Jaylen Waddle (groin) banged up. Also, with Xavien Howard hampered, should he not play, there are no true Dolphins answers for Justin Jefferson. Dalvin Cook also will stay hot running in his return to his home state.

Seth Walder, ESPN: Dolphins 23, Vikings 17

Eric Moody, ESPN: Vikings 21, Dolphins 20

What to watch for:

Skylar Thompson

will become the 10th rookie to make his first career start for the Dolphins since 1966. He can also become just the third rookie to win their first start, joining David Woodley and

Tua Tagovailoa

. They haven't fared well as a group, however, throwing for six touchdowns against 11 interceptions; only Dan Marino and

Ryan Tannehill

eclipsed the 200 passing yard-mark. —

Marcel Louis-Jacques

Bold prediction:

Dalvin Cook

will have his best game of the season, rushing for at least 100 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins' run defense has actually been pretty good this season, ranking No. 7 in the NFL based on expected points added. But it has allowed seven rushing touchdowns, tied for sixth-most in the league, and Cook -- a Miami native -- has averaged more than 100 yards per game dating back to college when he played Florida-based teams in Florida. —

Kevin Seifert

Stat to know:

Kirk Cousins

has 75 passing first downs this season, the third-most in the NFL behind

Patrick Mahomes

and

Josh Allen

(78). He is facing a Dolphins defense that allows 8.29 passing yards per attempt, the third-worst in the NFL.

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