The Vikings' latest 2026 compensatory pick projections aren't ideal

Once projected to have as many as three comp picks in 2026, the Vikings are down to one — for now.

Sep 28, 2025; Dublin, Ireland; Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah stands on the sidelines prior to a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers during an NFL International Series game at Croke Park. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

There was a point in this NFL offseason, after the initial wave of free agency had settled down, where the Vikings were projected to receive two premium compensatory picks in the 2026 draft, and even had a chance at landing a third. Now, midway through the 2025 season, their comp pick outlook has worsened by a good bit.

For those who may not be aware, the league awards comp picks to teams who lose more qualifying free agents than they gain in the previous year's free agency run, based on a complicated formula that incorporates dollar amounts on contracts, playing time, and more. It's a real factor in roster-building that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Kevin O'Connell, and the Vikings' front office pay close attention to.

In the most recent NFL draft, the Vikings were awarded the 97th overall pick — the highest comp pick available — because they let Kirk Cousins depart in free agency after the 2023 season. (They eventually traded down to 102 and selected Tai Felton). Next year, they're all but guaranteed to get the 97th pick once again, this time for letting Sam Darnold depart and sign a big contract with the Seahawks.

After that is where things get interesting for those who follow the Vikings' comp pick situation closely. Over the Cap's Nick Korte is the premier expert in this niche field; his updated projections prove to be quite accurate year after year. And after previously projecting the Vikings to earn a fourth-round comp pick on top of the third-rounder, while noting they had a chance at landing a seventh-rounder as well, Korte now projects the Vikings to only have the one.

What changed? This season has actually had some positive developments for the Vikings in terms of the comp pick formula, with Daniel Jones winning the starting QB job in Indianapolis (not to mention playing extremely well) and Cam Robinson being traded to the Browns after losing his starting job in Houston. Both of those players getting significant offensive snaps is important.

But there have been other, less ideal developments as well. Because of Blake Cashman's injury and Ivan Pace Jr.'s struggles, Eric Wilson has played far more snaps than anticipated coming into this season. That has him qualifying as a compensatory free agent in Korte's current projections, which cancels out the fourth-rounder the Vikings could get from Jones. Also, two borderline qualifiers who they lost in free agency, Trent Sherfield and Johnny Mundt, aren't quite playing enough with their new teams (the Broncos and Jaguars, respectively) to factor in. Sherfield was seen as the player with a realistic chance to land the Vikings a third comp pick at one point.

Blake Cashman's return took snaps away not from Eric Wilson, but Ivan Pace Jr.

That combined with Trent Sherfield only getting 11% of the offensive snaps for the Broncos inches the Vikings closer to their worst case 2026 compensatory pick scenario. pic.twitter.com/KcFeC0Cmqx

— Nick Korte (@nickkorte) October 20, 2025

Here's what their cancellation chart currently looks like:

Over the Cap

In Week 7 against the Eagles, Wilson played 42 snaps and Pace didn't see the field on defense. On Thursday, Wilson played 59 and Pace played 17. That'll be something to keep an eye on moving forward. It's still too early for the Vikings to really consider prioritizing the comp pick formula over playing who they believe gives them the best chance to win, but if they continue falling out of the playoff hunt, it might be worth limiting Wilson's snaps in order to try to get that fourth-round pick back on the board.

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